Agri- Commodities 21-25/07/25

Monday

opened with broad losses across CBOT and MATIF markets, spurred by fund selling and forecasts for widespread Midwest rains. Corn and soybeans weakened amid rapid U.S. and Russian harvest activity, while wheat was dragged down by rising export competition and easing weather concerns. Crop reports showed Russia’s Stavropol region nearing harvest completion, with a national forecast of 135 million tons for 2025. Meanwhile, Brazil’s AgRural raised its corn output forecast, and the EU’s MARS projected a 6% year-on-year increase in soft wheat yields, strengthening bearish fundamentals.

Tuesday

saw wheat rebound sharply on both sides of the Atlantic after Russia trimmed crop and export estimates, boosting September futures. Additional support came from active wheat tenders from Tunisia and South Korea. In contrast, corn and soybeans extended losses as U.S. growing conditions remained highly favorable. Crop ratings reflected this optimism, with corn conditions hitting a nine-year high. Meanwhile, EU customs data confirmed weak export volumes, and Brazil’s July corn exports slipped from the prior week, signaling broader global softness.

Wednesday

brought renewed selling pressure, with corn falling for a third consecutive session and soybeans slipping further following China's plans to cut hog production. Wheat retreated alongside the euro’s strength and lingering Russian competition. Despite earlier optimism, traders booked profits amid ongoing supply abundance. Futures data showed non-commercial participants increasing their net short on MATIF wheat, signaling a more defensive positioning.

Thursday

delivered a temporary lift in CBOT corn and wheat, helped by strong U.S. export sales and active trade from South Korean buyers. Soybeans also edged higher, aided by technical buying. However, MATIF grains extended losses, maintaining export-friendly levels despite limited upward momentum. USDA export data revealed over 2 million tons in weekly grain sales, with additional private sales of U.S. corn to South Korea reinforcing short-term demand support.

Friday

ended the week on a weak note, with all major grains easing. Favorable U.S. weather and trade uncertainty weighed on soybeans, while corn and wheat lost ground amid bearish sentiment and strong global supply. MATIF wheat closed the week down over 3%, undermined by a firm euro and Germany’s harvest concerns. The week concluded with updated USDA sales to Mexico and South Korea, though these were insufficient to reverse the downward momentum.