Agri- Commodities: 10-14/3/25

Monday U.S. wheat futures opened the week on a strong note, led by Kansas wheat, as traders reacted to deteriorating crop conditions in key HRW states. The rally coincided with Algeria’s milling wheat tender, though MATIF wheat showed a more hesitant response. Meanwhile, soybeans faced pressure as China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods took effect. Export inspections indicated solid corn shipments but disappointing wheat figures. India projected record wheat production at 115.3 million metric tons, signaling ample supply ahead.

Tuesday The USDA’s WASDE report brought little surprise, leaving market participants without a strong catalyst. The most notable adjustment was another downward revision in China’s grain import estimates, with wheat imports cut by 1.5 mmt and corn by 2 mmt. COCERAL’s updated EU crop outlook trimmed soft wheat and barley forecasts but raised corn production expectations. The EUR/USD continued its upward trend, which has implications for MATIF pricing. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal, but Russia’s stance remained uncertain.

Wednesday A mixed session saw wheat gain while CBOT corn and soybeans struggled under broader macroeconomic pressures, including new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum that prompted retaliatory measures from the EU and Canada. Algeria’s wheat tender concluded with purchases of at least 450k tons at a higher price than the previous month. Tunisia also entered the market, seeking 100k tons of soft wheat. Canada’s planting intentions showed increased wheat acreage but a decline in canola, while Argentina’s crop estimates were revised lower for both corn and soybeans. Speculators continued liquidating their positions in MATIF wheat and rapeseed, extending recent trends.

Thursday Wheat prices led the charge higher, buoyed by strong U.S. export sales, reduced Russian export forecasts, and weather concerns in the U.S. Plains. Wheat export sales reached a 15-month high, lending additional support. Germany’s farm cooperatives projected a larger wheat crop in 2025, while Brazil’s Conab increased its corn and soybean forecasts, though still below USDA estimates. The NOAA projected ENSO-neutral conditions developing soon, potentially stabilizing global weather patterns.

Friday A relatively quiet session saw most grain prices decline heading into the weekend, though soybeans bucked the trend. Dry and windy conditions in the U.S. Plains kept Kansas wheat futures firm. Ukraine’s spring grain planting plans indicated a slight increase, with stable crop conditions reported in France. Private export sales included 218.6k tons of corn and 20k tons of soybean oil. Fund activity showed continued position adjustments, with liquidation in CBOT corn contrasting with buying in soybeans and wheat. The broader trade environment remained volatile, with concerns over U.S. trade policy adding another layer of uncertainty.