Agri- Commodities: 26-30/5/25

Monday Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.

Tuesday Tuesday brought a sharp selloff in wheat, sparked by anticipation of improved U.S. crop ratings and favorable European weather updates. However, post-close data upended that narrative: U.S. winter wheat ratings unexpectedly fell, and spring wheat condition ratings debuted far below expectations at just 45% G/E. Corn and soybeans followed wheat lower intraday but showed mixed closes, supported by subdued planting progress and crop condition metrics that came in below trader estimates. EU wheat exports continued to climb, though soft demand in international tenders suggested headwinds remain.

Wednesday Midweek, wheat attempted a recovery on the back of disappointing U.S. crop data, but gains were quickly erased as updated forecasts promised more rainfall in drought-hit France. Corn and soybeans declined further, pressured by favorable planting pace and weather. Positioning data revealed a notable short-covering in MATIF wheat and continued buying in rapeseed. The European Commission revised up its wheat and barley production outlooks but trimmed maize estimates, reflecting uneven weather impacts across the bloc.

Thursday On Thursday, wheat posted fresh contract lows on MATIF before mild bargain-buying helped it claw back modest gains. Markets digested a significant U.S. court ruling limiting President Trump’s tariff powers, which sent equity markets surging but failed to meaningfully support grain prices. India announced a record wheat harvest, likely eliminating its need for imports in the next marketing year. Corn continued to slump amid persistent fund pressure and weak technicals. Friday Friday closed the week on a cautious note. Corn and soybeans extended their losses, weighed down by benign weather and growing U.S.-China trade tensions. Minneapolis spring wheat found support on continued concerns over crop quality. French wheat ratings dipped slightly but remain strong historically. Export sales were solid for wheat but underwhelming for soybeans, while fund positioning showed limited movement, with net shorts persisting in corn and wheat. President Trump’s announcement of tariff hikes on steel and aluminum reignited market fears of a broader trade confrontation, capping a volatile month that ended with MATIF wheat likely posting its third straight monthly decline.