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Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/2026: The main macro shift was the US-Iran deal framework and the reopening of Hormuz. This lowered bunker expectations and eased the most extreme Gulf panic, but it has not returned the market to normal. Insurance, mine clearance, crew changes and the restart of Gulf cargo programmes remain uncertain.

Augusto Abati talks about Brazilian crops wheat and corn markets 2024: Will wheat planting be tough for Brazilian farmers? Listen to how we discuss about the current situation in Brazilian markets, the challenges faced by local farmers, conflicting corn crop estimates, and what all this means for prices. - Hi, I'm Hendrik from CM Hamburg and I'm sitting here together with my colleague Augusto from CM São Paulo. We're here today to discuss the Brazilian crops and especially wheat and corn markets.Good morning, Augusto. How are you today? - Good morning. I am doing very well, and yourself? - Absolutely fine, thank you. Looking at the Brazilian crops, we are in the middle of the corn harvest, how's it looking currently? - Yeah, well, let's say that the first corn harvest is 80% done at this stage and the Safrinha of corn, the second harvest in Brazil is only about 2% done in the center south of Brazil So far, the conditions look good. We're not going to have a record crop like last year but everything is moving forward. We're not expecting any major changes from now on, the weather is very good in the state of Mato Grosso. We do have some problems in the state of Rio Grande do Sul but overall I believe that the numbers should stay as per the last ranges of the trade. - It does look a little different on the wheat market. So, with the flooding in the South it has a major impact on the seedings. How is it looking on the wheat? - Well, for the wheat, we're going to have a challenging year. At the State of Paraná, the conditions are fairly good. The plantings have started but the main issue in Brazil right now is the State of Rio Grande do Sul. They had the biggest weather disaster in history. Meaning that several of the areas are still flooded. We cannot even access some of those areas. We have problems with logistics, and, of course, this is affecting the plantings. Which are fairly delayed. Initially, we were working with a range over 9.5 million tonnes production and we are already talking about low 8 million tonnes. So we're going to have some massive differences from what was initially predicted in Brazil. - Speaking about the delayed plantings and the wet conditions, how do you think that will affect the quality this year if that already can be said? - I would say it's still a bit too early to say anything about the quality. - Again, we have barely started the plantings but if the conditions persist, we might have a year like the previous season. While we were expecting to export 11.5 with ANEC specs and ended up having only a feed wheat program. At this stage, I would say that the sellers in Brazil, they're also concerned about this. So they are selling 11.5 for ex harvest but also asking for an option to decrease it to feed wheat in case the conditions persist. - What does it mean for the prices? Where's the market currently? What are we talking about? - We're talking of a very high market at this stage and very far apart. I would say that the December wheat at this stage in Brazil is 280 versus 255. The sellers are in line with what we see in Argentina but as you very well know, at parity with Germany and much more expensive than what we see in Russia right now. Especially against Russia 12.5 even. - So, looking at a probably decreased production number how does it affect the import side? Is Russian wheat playing a major role in this? - Indeed they are. On the import side last year we had imports around 5.5. In the beginning of the year, we were expecting 100 million tons less, around 5.4 but right now we are already working with numbers above 6 million tons, especially given the conditions in Rio Grande de Sul. So if that does indeed materialise, it will be in favour of Russia. Argentinian wheat, at this stage 11.5 We're talking about 285$ versus 12.5 on the Black Sea around 250. So, even with the freight spread to Brazil, we would see a massive flow of Russian flowing into the country. The trade is already rumouring of at least 1 million tons traded and we believe this number will only increase from now on. - Thanks for the insights, Augusto. Coming back to the corn markets, we've briefly talked about it but the production numbers are quite diverse yet. What do you think is the reason for that? - They are indeed all over the place. On one side we have CONAB with very low estimates and on the other side we have the actual trade. Talking with other clients and partners in Brazil, we do put the production around 1.22 million tonnes. Not the low numbers of CONAB of 1.13 - 1.14 million tons. The USDA is still even higher 1.25. But considering the estimates of the trade at this stage, we would see at least 120 million tonnes being produced in Brazil. Not a record crop as last year but still fairly significant that will generate a very good export season for the country. - How does that affect the market? I mean, we are in the middle of the harvest. - Yes, the first crop now is at 80% harvested. Second crop, just about started. The market has been quiet let's say. One of the main components of last season for Brazil was China. China has been missing in action, we have not seen or heard any trades. If something was traded, it was very little in comparison to the last year. So, but even without China, we see Brazilian corn starting to calculate pretty much everywhere in the world. Via the Med, via the EU, via Southeast Asia. So we're slowly getting there that Brazilian corn is pricing in to destinations but not yet trading that much. As you might as well know, Brazil starts the heavy export as of July, August, so we're still a bit early but not many trades were done. So, we're lagging behind a normal year. - So market looks actually rather bearish and heavy, what do you think farmers have committed so far? - Very little. The farmer selling has been very much focused on the soybeans. Even though at this stage they have a very favourable USD BRL parity, to start selling, they still have a lot of soybeans to sell. So, the focus has not been the corn. We're expecting this to change any time. Could it be next week, in three weeks from now, the Brazilian corn market needs to move and we are yet to see a harvest pressure that will move those markets. - So, soon we could see a sharp drop in the harvest markets on corn, might that bring China back to the table? - It could. We are talking about the next harvest in July. At this stage we are bearish when it comes to basis. It will all depend in the end of China at this point. China was the biggest importer of Brazilian corn last season. So, without China, then of course we would have a completely different situation. - Many thanks for your insights, Augusto! - Always a pleasure!