Commodity Trading Solution for Agri & Dry Bulk

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 29-03/07/2026: Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

Freight (Lite) 10/07/2026 : The dry bulk market strengthened in Panamax and Ultramax, while Handysize rates eased.  The strongest conditions were recorded for Ultramax vessels in the US Gulf and Panamax vessels in the North Atlantic. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent, although prompt Black Sea grain business and selected US Gulf long-haul routes remained supported.  US Gulf grain activity improved slightly, led by corn and soybeans. Brazilian grain exports declined, while Black Sea exports eased but remained above the comparable period last year. EU and UK grain exports excluding the Black Sea also declined.  Higher bunker costs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz increased insurance, routing and execution risks. Handysize and Ultramax trades face the most direct exposure, while Panamax grain freight is affected mainly through bunker costs and vessel positioning.  The Handysize market weakened across the Atlantic and Pacific, with the Global Handysize Baltic Index falling to USD 16,506 per day.  East Coast South America softened as weaker grain exports and limited cargo demand left charterers with greater negotiating leverage.  The US Gulf remained selective. Standard transatlantic business eased, while longer-haul grain routes continued to attract firmer support.  The Black Sea was the clearest area of improvement. Prompt grain demand tightened the available vessel list and supported stronger levels, although later dates remained less certain.  The Continent and Baltic stayed weak as limited cargo formation and sufficient prompt tonnage continued to pressure the market.  Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain stems and specific US Gulf long-haul requirements. East Coast South America and the Continent continue to offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax recorded the strongest grain-related physical earnings, with Ultramax earnings rising to USD 21,490 per day.  The US Gulf remained the strongest basin. Grain demand supported firm Atlantic and Far East employment, although the vessel list appeared healthier towards the end of July.  East Coast South America remained supported for prompt modern tonnage. However, weaker Brazilian exports suggest that current strength is being driven more by vessel positioning than by rising cargo volumes.  The Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean also firmed as prompt vessel availability tightened. Grain and industrial cargoes supported the market, although activity remained uneven.  The Continent and Baltic were more balanced. Weak regional grain exports limited demand, but alternative cargoes prevented a clear correction.  Overall, Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt US Gulf and Black Sea requirements. Later East Coast South America and Continent positions can be approached more patiently.  Panamax and Kamsarmax remained firm, although the market showed signs of consolidation rather than further acceleration. The Baltic Panamax Timecharter Average reached USD 20,276 per day.  The North Atlantic remained supported after active fixing reduced both cargo and vessel lists. Owners continued to seek higher levels, but the more balanced position list reduced the need for buyers to chase the market.  East Coast South America was mixed. Prompt and early-August business remained supported, while owners and charterers continued to disagree over the effect of higher bunker costs.  The US Gulf remained firm due to grain demand and Atlantic replacement economics. However, improving vessel availability limited the case for extending prompt premiums too far forward.  The Black Sea lacked a clear standalone Panamax signal, despite grain exports remaining above the comparable period last year.  The Pacific held broadly steady. Prompt North Pacific grain and Australian employment remained supported, while forward positions were more balanced.  Overall, Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America positions should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  Ultramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Panamax continued to receive support from North Atlantic and US grain demand.  Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent. Prompt Black Sea geared business improved as the available vessel list tightened.  Lower Brazilian grain exports limited the case for extending current Atlantic premiums into later dates.  Panamax remained firm but showed limited evidence of a fresh upward move. Prompt North Pacific grain requirements continued to support rates, while forward positions were more balanced.  Handysize and Ultramax conditions remained constrained by healthier vessel availability and uneven cargo demand.  Temporary weather disruption around eastern China may affect vessel schedules, but the freight impact should remain limited unless port closures persist.  Continent and Baltic conditions remained weak because available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea cargo demand.  East Coast South America softened as Brazilian grain exports declined.  Prompt Black Sea grain business strengthened following a reduction in available vessels.  US Gulf support remained concentrated in specific long-haul grain routes rather than the wider Handysize market.  Renewed US strikes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and increased war-risk, insurance and bunker exposure.  Some vessels continued to transit, but reversed sailings, ballast queues and GPS interference were reported around key Gulf loading areas.  Owners may require shorter offer validity, additional contractual protection and higher risk premiums. Buyers should confirm routing assumptions, war-risk allocation, bunker exposure and cancellation provisions before comparing voyage offers.  Higher bunker costs increased voyage expenses, particularly on longer routes from the US Gulf, East Coast South America and the Black Sea.  US Gulf grain activity remained supportive, while lower Brazilian, Black Sea and European export volumes created a more uneven Atlantic demand picture.  Forward soybean buying supported prompt and early-forward US Gulf freight but did not justify extending current premiums into later dates.  Tighter prompt Ultramax availability supported the Black Sea, while healthier US Gulf and North Atlantic lists limited the potential for another broad rate increase.  Weak grain exports and subdued summer cargo formation continued to pressure smaller vessel employment around the Continent and Baltic.  Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain and specific US Gulf long-haul exposure. East Coast South America and the Continent still offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt cover in the US Gulf and Black Sea. Later East Coast South America and Continent requirements should be approached more patiently.  Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  The market remains Atlantic-led, with the strongest conditions concentrated around prompt positions and restricted vessel availability. The key distinction is between immediate requirements in tight basins and later exposure where cargo flow and tonnage are more balanced. 

Mads Frank Markussen joins the IFPRI-AMIS panel on what's driving food commodity markets 2026: Our Head of Freight Research & FFA, Mads Frank Markussen, joined the IFPRI-AMIS panel "Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What's Driving Food Commodity Markets?", co-organized by IFPRI and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and moderated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The panel brought together economists, crop specialists, and market analysts to unpack the forces shaping today's markets, with Mads contributing the freight and shipping perspective. Over the course of the discussion, the panel covered questions including:

Mads Frank Markussen explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions: Recently, our colleague Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research & FFA, joined Felipe, Neil, and Michael on a special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook to dive into all things freight. Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed potential US-Europe tariff conflicts and why Russian sanctions have had a limited effect on dry bulk markets. The conversation covered key differences between tanker and dry bulk markets and the growing influence of emissions regulations on voyage costs across the industry. A must-listen for anyone in freight and commodities—check it out! Listen to the full podcast here: