Commodity Trading Solution for Agri & Dry Bulk

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

Freight (Lite) 26/06/2026: Dry bulk freight lost some momentum this week, but performance varied significantly across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax was the strongest segment, posting gains while Supramax eased from recent highs and Capesize continued to weaken. In the geared market, the Atlantic remained firmer than the Pacific, particularly in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, where prompt vessel supply stayed tight. The reopening of Hormuz and the US-Iran agreement pushed bunker prices sharply lower, with Brent falling to around USD 74 per barrel. However, freight rates have not fully reflected lower fuel costs. Security incidents near Oman continue to create uncertainty around routing, insurance and Gulf operations, meaning owners still price in geopolitical risk despite cheaper bunkers. For freight buyers, the divide remains clear. Atlantic prompt positions continue to command premiums due to tighter vessel availability, while the Pacific offers greater flexibility as supply remains more comfortable. Handysize remained resilient despite weakness in larger geared segments. Atlantic markets continued to outperform, supported by grain demand and tight nearby supply, while Asia stayed stable rather than strong. Europe remained subdued as oversupply continued to limit upside. East Coast South America maintained firm levels, although activity slowed slightly after the recent rally. Grain demand from Brazil continues to underpin sentiment, and prompt July vessel supply remains limited. The US Gulf also held firm, with charterers still paying premium levels for prompt trans-Atlantic grain business. Although headline vessel numbers appear comfortable, much fixing has occurred privately, leaving the prompt market tighter than it appears. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean improved only gradually as grain demand remained selective and supply stayed workable. North Europe remained stable but uninspiring. Scrap and grain demand were insufficient to tighten the market, leaving owners increasingly focused on Atlantic alternatives. Overall, buyers should continue securing Atlantic Handysize cargoes early, while maintaining greater flexibility in North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax softened slightly after several weeks of strong gains, although the Atlantic continued to outperform the Pacific by a wide margin. The US Gulf remained the strongest basin, with trans-Atlantic and Mediterranean business still fixing in the low to mid USD 30,000s per day. However, fresh enquiry slowed during the week, flattening the rally rather than reversing it. East Coast South America remained firm, although market participants increasingly believe rates are approaching their near-term ceiling. Grain demand remains healthy, but further upside now appears more limited. The Mediterranean and Black Sea continued improving as clinker, grain and West Africa cargoes absorbed part of the regional oversupply. Conditions are firmer than earlier in June, although not yet tight enough to create a genuine squeeze. Asia presented the weakest picture. Indonesian and Southeast Asian business softened as prompt vessel availability increased faster than cargo demand, leaving Atlantic earnings substantially above Pacific equivalents. Overall, Atlantic Supramax should still be booked ahead of Pacific business, although buyers no longer need to chase every indication as aggressively as they did a week ago. Panamax emerged as the strongest freight segment this week, supported by improving Atlantic fundamentals while the Pacific finally began finding a floor after several weeks of weakness. The Atlantic strengthened as prompt North Continent tonnage tightened and trans-Atlantic demand improved. East Coast South America continued to benefit from healthy grain demand, particularly for late July positions, while prompt June windows remained more balanced. The US Gulf stayed firmer than the Pacific, supported by steady grain and mineral enquiry, although the strongest tightening remained centred on the wider North Atlantic rather than the Gulf alone. The Pacific remained softer overall, but the downside now appears increasingly limited after rates tested the USD 13,000 per day range on shorter voyages. Vessel supply remains comfortable, allowing buyers greater flexibility unless prompt dates are required. Europe also improved as prompt North Continent supply tightened and mineral demand strengthened, giving owners more negotiating power for immediate positions. Overall, Panamax currently offers the strongest outlook among the major dry bulk segments. Buyers should prioritise Atlantic grain cargoes while continuing to approach Pacific business more patiently. Fuel and bunkers Lower oil prices have eased voyage economics, but freight has not surrendered all of the geopolitical premium built into Atlantic markets earlier this month. Security and routing Hormuz has reopened, but recent security incidents near Oman demonstrate that routing risks remain. Insurance costs and operational uncertainty continue to influence freight pricing. Agricultural flows Improved Brazilian corn production estimates continue supporting Atlantic grain exports and provide a positive backdrop for freight demand heading into July. Atlantic versus Pacific Atlantic markets continue outperforming the Pacific due to tighter prompt vessel availability, particularly for geared vessels. The Pacific remains more balanced, allowing buyers greater flexibility. Paper markets softened this week despite continued resilience in Atlantic physical freight. Panamax spot continues trading above forward values, reflecting stronger Atlantic grain demand than currently priced into derivatives. Supramax paper weakened behind the front month, although Atlantic physical rates continue commanding meaningful premiums over Asia. Handysize paper remains broadly aligned with physical values, although Atlantic routes continue outperforming generic index levels. Overall, buyers should avoid relying solely on softer paper markets as an indication that Atlantic prompt freight will become easier, particularly for grain cargoes. Panamax currently offers the strongest freight outlook, supported by tighter Atlantic supply and improving grain demand. Supramax remains attractive in the Atlantic, although momentum has slowed compared with previous weeks. Buyers should continue booking Atlantic cargoes ahead of Pacific positions but can negotiate more selectively than before. Handysize continues to prove resilient thanks to healthy Atlantic grain demand and stable Australian activity. Early booking remains advisable for Atlantic cargoes, while North Europe and the Pacific continue offering greater flexibility for buyers.

Augusto Abati talks about Brazilian crops wheat and corn markets 2024: Will wheat planting be tough for Brazilian farmers? Listen to how we discuss about the current situation in Brazilian markets, the challenges faced by local farmers, conflicting corn crop estimates, and what all this means for prices. - Hi, I'm Hendrik from CM Hamburg and I'm sitting here together with my colleague Augusto from CM São Paulo. We're here today to discuss the Brazilian crops and especially wheat and corn markets.Good morning, Augusto. How are you today? - Good morning. I am doing very well, and yourself? - Absolutely fine, thank you. Looking at the Brazilian crops, we are in the middle of the corn harvest, how's it looking currently? - Yeah, well, let's say that the first corn harvest is 80% done at this stage and the Safrinha of corn, the second harvest in Brazil is only about 2% done in the center south of Brazil So far, the conditions look good. We're not going to have a record crop like last year but everything is moving forward. We're not expecting any major changes from now on, the weather is very good in the state of Mato Grosso. We do have some problems in the state of Rio Grande do Sul but overall I believe that the numbers should stay as per the last ranges of the trade. - It does look a little different on the wheat market. So, with the flooding in the South it has a major impact on the seedings. How is it looking on the wheat? - Well, for the wheat, we're going to have a challenging year. At the State of Paraná, the conditions are fairly good. The plantings have started but the main issue in Brazil right now is the State of Rio Grande do Sul. They had the biggest weather disaster in history. Meaning that several of the areas are still flooded. We cannot even access some of those areas. We have problems with logistics, and, of course, this is affecting the plantings. Which are fairly delayed. Initially, we were working with a range over 9.5 million tonnes production and we are already talking about low 8 million tonnes. So we're going to have some massive differences from what was initially predicted in Brazil. - Speaking about the delayed plantings and the wet conditions, how do you think that will affect the quality this year if that already can be said? - I would say it's still a bit too early to say anything about the quality. - Again, we have barely started the plantings but if the conditions persist, we might have a year like the previous season. While we were expecting to export 11.5 with ANEC specs and ended up having only a feed wheat program. At this stage, I would say that the sellers in Brazil, they're also concerned about this. So they are selling 11.5 for ex harvest but also asking for an option to decrease it to feed wheat in case the conditions persist. - What does it mean for the prices? Where's the market currently? What are we talking about? - We're talking of a very high market at this stage and very far apart. I would say that the December wheat at this stage in Brazil is 280 versus 255. The sellers are in line with what we see in Argentina but as you very well know, at parity with Germany and much more expensive than what we see in Russia right now. Especially against Russia 12.5 even. - So, looking at a probably decreased production number how does it affect the import side? Is Russian wheat playing a major role in this? - Indeed they are. On the import side last year we had imports around 5.5. In the beginning of the year, we were expecting 100 million tons less, around 5.4 but right now we are already working with numbers above 6 million tons, especially given the conditions in Rio Grande de Sul. So if that does indeed materialise, it will be in favour of Russia. Argentinian wheat, at this stage 11.5 We're talking about 285$ versus 12.5 on the Black Sea around 250. So, even with the freight spread to Brazil, we would see a massive flow of Russian flowing into the country. The trade is already rumouring of at least 1 million tons traded and we believe this number will only increase from now on. - Thanks for the insights, Augusto. Coming back to the corn markets, we've briefly talked about it but the production numbers are quite diverse yet. What do you think is the reason for that? - They are indeed all over the place. On one side we have CONAB with very low estimates and on the other side we have the actual trade. Talking with other clients and partners in Brazil, we do put the production around 1.22 million tonnes. Not the low numbers of CONAB of 1.13 - 1.14 million tons. The USDA is still even higher 1.25. But considering the estimates of the trade at this stage, we would see at least 120 million tonnes being produced in Brazil. Not a record crop as last year but still fairly significant that will generate a very good export season for the country. - How does that affect the market? I mean, we are in the middle of the harvest. - Yes, the first crop now is at 80% harvested. Second crop, just about started. The market has been quiet let's say. One of the main components of last season for Brazil was China. China has been missing in action, we have not seen or heard any trades. If something was traded, it was very little in comparison to the last year. So, but even without China, we see Brazilian corn starting to calculate pretty much everywhere in the world. Via the Med, via the EU, via Southeast Asia. So we're slowly getting there that Brazilian corn is pricing in to destinations but not yet trading that much. As you might as well know, Brazil starts the heavy export as of July, August, so we're still a bit early but not many trades were done. So, we're lagging behind a normal year. - So market looks actually rather bearish and heavy, what do you think farmers have committed so far? - Very little. The farmer selling has been very much focused on the soybeans. Even though at this stage they have a very favourable USD BRL parity, to start selling, they still have a lot of soybeans to sell. So, the focus has not been the corn. We're expecting this to change any time. Could it be next week, in three weeks from now, the Brazilian corn market needs to move and we are yet to see a harvest pressure that will move those markets. - So, soon we could see a sharp drop in the harvest markets on corn, might that bring China back to the table? - It could. We are talking about the next harvest in July. At this stage we are bearish when it comes to basis. It will all depend in the end of China at this point. China was the biggest importer of Brazilian corn last season. So, without China, then of course we would have a completely different situation. - Many thanks for your insights, Augusto! - Always a pleasure!

Will Latin American countries continue to increase import of Russian wheat? Our colleague Indrek Aigro shared valuable insights at the Abitrigo Conference on shifting import and export trends in Latin America. Key Topics Covered: Good afternoon. I have never seen such a large audience at 3:30 in the afternoon! It’s a big effort to be here, and I take it as a compliment. I'll do my best not to disappoint you. I’m from Copenhagen Merchants, where I head the brokerage division. Our team works across many regions around the world, including an office in São Paulo focused on the Latin American markets. With over 20 years in this business, I, like every trader, identify with a specific crop. For me, it’s wheat. So, being here in Brazil, a major wheat-importing nation, feels like the right place to be. Brazil is crucial not only for its wheat imports but also as a diversified agricultural hub. I’m here to discuss the other side of the picture: the Eastern Hemisphere. Brazil’s export capacity is growing, with promising opportunities to expand production, especially with new GMO varieties and improved yields. But simultaneously, imports are increasing across the whole region. Given this is a media conference, I'll focus on imports into Brazil and Latin America, rather than exports, although my company handles both. I believe everyone here shares a common goal: to combat food inflation. High food prices hurt everyone—the country, the business, and the consumer. While temporary profits might arise from inflation, it generally causes more disruption than benefit. One way to combat food inflation is by diversifying our sourcing, giving us access to a variety of origins based on cost-effectiveness, availability, and quality. Different wheat origins bring unique characteristics, and today’s global volatility demands flexibility in sourcing. We see this trend globally—in Africa, Asia, and here in Latin America. Now, let me show you the state of wheat imports across Latin America. This region has a huge purchasing power, importing about 20 million tons of wheat annually. Argentina contributes around 3.5 to 5 million tons each year, with the U.S., Canada, and now the Eastern Hemisphere, especially Russia, increasing their shares in the market. Over the last 20 years, Latin America’s wheat consumption has grown by almost 10 million tons, with production largely keeping pace. But increased local production in Brazil doesn’t necessarily mean fewer imports, as wheat grown in South Brazil often heads to markets in Africa and Asia. This means more trade overall—both imports and exports continue to rise together. Among Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico are the top wheat importers, followed by Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. In total, the region imported around 21 million tons of wheat this past season, a figure that’s steadily growing. This part of the world is becoming more and more relevant on the global stage. To understand agricultural trends, we have to look beyond year-on-year comparisons and examine decade-by-decade shifts. Over the past ten years, U.S. wheat exports to Latin America have declined, with Russia filling the gap. This shift seems to be a lasting trend, as the U.S. is producing less wheat each year and relying more on imports when necessary. Consequently, Brazil and Latin America must look increasingly to Eastern Hemisphere sources, adapting to different quality standards and regulatory requirements. Some of this work is ongoing, but more remains to be done. When examining Brazilian and Mexican wheat imports, in 2018-2019 Brazil imported nearly 6 million tons, while last season it was around 3 million tons due to a better crop. Although Brazilian mills in the north are adapting to alternative sources, the country's import dynamics are changing. Russia, which had no market share five years ago, now has a foothold. Meanwhile, recent BRICS meetings in Moscow emphasized ambitions to create a marketplace for BRICS agricultural commodities, possibly including a BRICS currency. The Russia-Brazil trade relationship seems to have strong support and momentum at this time. For Mexico, much of its wheat supply comes from the U.S., supported by a robust rail trade over the border. However, with the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S., some trade agreements may be at risk. If these agreements are disrupted, Russia could step in as a wheat supplier. Another developing source is the Baltic Sea, which includes regions in Germany, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia (where I’m from). The Russian Baltic region, including Kaliningrad, has a flow of about 3 million tons annually, though most of it currently goes to Mexico rather than Brazil. With proper regulatory protocols in place, Brazilian mills could potentially buy from these origins when the price is competitive. The job ahead is to establish a platform and regulatory protocols to allow Brazilian mills to buy wheat from diverse sources whenever it makes economic sense. So I think that is that is that effective for both Russian and, and, and the European Union flows and, and I that's why we see that I think we are going to I think we are going to be seeing, a lot more of it in the future. The wheat production and especially the, the wheat, exportable surplus. You see, it's been growing and, and I think that is still potential to grow in the Baltics. We, we see that, that, that wheat is definitely looking for new alternatives as a destination market. And, I think that the, the both Mexico and especially Brazil and maybe Colombia, Venezuela are gonna be the destinations where whether it is going to be quite relevant for as an area instead of having to ship it to Asia. And yeah, I mean, for the ones who are interested, the typical these are the standard, quality parameters that we are trading for, for the Baltic Sea origin. So yeah, I believe it's relatively similar to it's very high on gluten. It's very good stability on on baking and it's high on energy. So, on the Alva graph, you figure it, it always goes very high. So usually the mills like it. The double and, Germany, Poland, we see the same that where Poland is increasing a lot now and exports. And there are already specific discussions going on about the phyto protocol in Poland. To be, to make it shoot Brazilian imports. So, so this is something where we also see a lot of potential for the, for the future. The there is a specific thing in Poland. Poland is not really able to ship. Panamax is only a few Poland can ship these and supermax is only. So that means that, say 30 40,000 ton of vessels and that is the size of Brazil takes. So this makes Poland actually a very good match for Brazil. They have less alternatives to go. And the Polish German quality, which is very similar to the to the Baltic, Baltic Sea, to the Baltic qualities. And that is a slide I already showed you. Now this is the same slide, but you see where, these are the destinations of the Baltic Sea countries where they are shipping, too. It used to be Iran on top. Then it was Saudi Arabia. But now what you. I'm sorry. Press the wrong button. Yeah. So now what you see here, it's basically West Africa. There is a lot of West Africa where they go because and the and and the South America, Latin America could really fit well into, into this I believe if they, if we show the same slide again in five years, we are going to see Brazil in this list. What about the freight? Are they competitive? Is Russia competitive or is a Baltic Sea competitive to United States to, Canada on the freight? So we made, small comparison here. And you see that the, the freight actually, here we have Mexico and here we have Brazil. So, you can see that, the freight from Russia is actually higher than from alternative countries. And in the Mexican case, of course, obviously USA is by far the cheapest. But freight, as we all know, sea freight is only one element in the equation. The other element is a price of the week itself. So what happens if we combine the freight with a V price and we look at the CFR figures. This happens. So you see suddenly that that to Mexico, Russia is pretty much on par with the U.S actually these numbers, my prices are from last week. When I made the presentation yesterday, Russia U.S were exactly on the on the same par. But if you look at Brazil then this is a US wheat price. Yesterday we have then we have Baltic Sea which I mentioned. Then we have Russia here. So and then we have Romania, Romania. On the paper looks cheap, but it is not able to come to Brazil today. It's a very soft wheat. It has to go into specific destinations. I just wanted to add it as a comparison, but it's definitely something to talk about. But you see that price wise it is competitive. Well, I don't have Argentina here and I think Argentina new crop is definitely going to take the market share. So Argentinian Dynamics is that you know, the during their harvest they grab the market not only in Brazil but almost globally. And then they ship and sell everywhere. So we're going to see a big effect on energy. But however, if we're looking at the in Brazil alternatives to RG then this is a picture actually. And then I want to come back and zoom in on the Russian flows. So, Russia, what you hear in the news is or what you hear in the industry. You hear that? Okay. Sometimes, that it can be an issue on the phyto, and then the government is taking more control. So I just want to explain and elaborate a little bit on what are the trends, what are happening in Russia and how it affects, destinations and Brazilian, consumers. All the middle of the wheat. So, in Russia, use what you see today happening is that the government is taking a stronger and stronger control of the wheat exports, and the government is really saying two things. They are they are saying that the wheat they are, they are they are looking at wheat as any other natural resource of the country, like oil or gas. And they are saying, okay, because because it's a natural resource for the country, then the country has a say in how and where it should be traded, and that is certain logics in it. So they are like saying, okay, you can export as a private company, but we want to you first of all not to sell the wheat to cheap. We want you to sell it at a certain level. But for what it is worth, because they want to avoid a situation where Russians are competing with Russians and then, the wheat goes, generates a very big discount. And that is something which is, which everybody is trying to get used to today. The other thing, what, what they are saying is that they, they see it as a negative thing, that the global trading houses are buying the wheat on FOB Russia and then delivering it to various destinations. They see it as somebody who who is not Russian is, coming and eating away there some of the price. What they what they show they get themselves. It is a little bit simplistic view because we know how the commodity markets work, how it's it's a basically a big pot of soup. But but anyway, that is a view. And that means that Russian companies are today discouraged to sell FOB to international trading companies. And they are very much encouraged to go directly to destinations and go directly to mills and, and as often as usual in Russia, a lot of these things are not written. They are just kind of, known and implied. So, what it means is that we today we see that it's very hard to buy an FOB cargo in Russia for an international trader. The companies, they don't want to participate in it. They, they instead they are giving us as brokers a task saying, please go and discover us. Destination consumer buyers in Asia, in Africa, in South America and South America is a new and hot place. Looking at it from the Russian point of view, where they all see that the way they want to come. That also means from looking at it, from Brazil, it means that we believe that in the next near future, from now one, actually, we are going to see less international companies offering Russian wheat to Brazil, and we are going to see more of the Russian companies that are two Russian companies here in Rome today we have Austin and we have foods. So Austin and Rich fields are, Russian originators, Russian companies, and they are the ones who have already a clear ambition to come and sell in those markets. However, mark my words, same event next year that is going to be more than two. That's going to be eight. So, I think this is how the trend is going. The, and it is an irrevocable trend because what we always see is if originators learn that in Asian markets, if they learn the quality, their paperwork, their credit lines, their performance, if that all gets developed, their business does not go back to FOB, even if the restrictions disappear, the business stays there because they they have learned it. And and again, this is what I believe that. So I think that that what is going to happen in the next 12 months and that wheat imports, okay, we're going to have the ag show for the next couple of months. So that's fine. But the the rest of the market will wait. But once it prices back in, then we we're going to see a new names, new sellers coming, coming to those markets here and offering the wheat that takes introduction, getting to know each other and learning how to dance this, dance together. So. So I think that the, number one, I think that that is a very, strong potential in, in this business. I think that, the as I said, U.S. exports are slowly declining on the wheat. If you look at the long term trends, we see that the imports here are growing, and we see that the ability of the mills there to be more universal use, more of various origins, is increasing everywhere. And on today's volatility, it's necessary. So, we think that that gives a very big potential. And then we have the whole BRICs, countries, China, Brazil, India, and I think, that is, how this whole picture is going to evolve.