Commodity Trading Solution for Agri & Dry Bulk

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 06-10/07/2026: Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

Freight (Lite) 17/07/2026: Dry bulk conditions became increasingly divided by vessel size and region this week. Handysize weakened across most Atlantic loading areas, Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest geared segment despite early signs of easing in the US Gulf, and Panamax stayed broadly steady with East Coast South America continuing to outperform the wider Atlantic. Higher bunker prices and maritime-security risks increased voyage costs, but local cargo volumes and vessel availability remained the main drivers of freight direction. The Handysize market softened, with the Timecharter Average easing to around USD 16,300/day. East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent all faced limited cargo demand and increasing vessel availability, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. North Europe also remained under pressure as available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea enquiry. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were firmer because prompt vessels remained scarce. However, continued attacks on vessels and grain infrastructure have increased execution, insurance and cancellation risks. Pacific conditions held up better than the Atlantic but also eased slightly. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest grain-relevant segment, with the Ultramax Timecharter Average reaching around USD 21,900/day. East Coast South America stayed firm as a tight end-July vessel list supported grain fronthauls. The US Gulf also remained at elevated levels, although a growing tonnage list and slower enquiry produced the first signs that the market may be approaching a short-term peak. Black Sea levels remained supported by limited prompt supply, while the Continent stayed firm without showing a meaningful tightening in vessel availability. The Pacific improved, particularly around North and South China, giving the segment support across both major basins. Panamax remained broadly steady, with the Timecharter Average holding near USD 20,300/day. East Coast South America continued to command the strongest Atlantic grain premium, supported by Brazilian soybean and corn exports. The Pacific also firmed on North Pacific and Australian round voyages. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, momentum weakened. Continent and North Atlantic route assessments declined, while US Gulf grain demand provided some support without matching the strength of East Coast South America. Black Sea Panamax conditions remained difficult to assess because limited fresh pricing and vessel-supply information were available. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Black Sea Prompt geared tonnage remained limited, but attacks on vessels and export infrastructure substantially increased the risk of delay, cancellation and force majeure. Handysize-Specific Notes Fuel and Security Higher bunker prices, war-risk premiums and restricted Gulf transit conditions have raised voyage costs and reduced the effective availability of vessels on longer routes. Grain Flows Brazilian soybean and corn exports continue to support East Coast South America, while current US Gulf grain activity remains comparatively light. Black Sea Disruption Damage to vessels and export terminals has reduced the reliability of Black Sea grain movements despite continued underlying wheat demand. Forward Market Forward pricing suggests firm Supramax sentiment, broadly stable Panamax earnings and limited additional near-term downside in Handysize before a weaker seasonal period. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent, while securing exact prompt Black Sea requirements early. Supramax buyers should prioritise prompt East Coast South America and executable Black Sea cargoes, while covering only essential US Gulf requirements as the vessel list begins to grow. Panamax buyers should secure East Coast South America grain exposure where timing is fixed, but remain selective in the wider Atlantic and Pacific as regional conditions continue to diverge. Higher fuel and security costs should limit the depth of any freight correction, although weak cargo demand can still push individual markets lower.  

Mads Frank Markussen joins the IFPRI-AMIS panel on what's driving food commodity markets 2026: Our Head of Freight Research & FFA, Mads Frank Markussen, joined the IFPRI-AMIS panel "Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What's Driving Food Commodity Markets?", co-organized by IFPRI and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and moderated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The panel brought together economists, crop specialists, and market analysts to unpack the forces shaping today's markets, with Mads contributing the freight and shipping perspective. Over the course of the discussion, the panel covered questions including:

Mads Frank Markussen explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions: Recently, our colleague Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research & FFA, joined Felipe, Neil, and Michael on a special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook to dive into all things freight. Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed potential US-Europe tariff conflicts and why Russian sanctions have had a limited effect on dry bulk markets. The conversation covered key differences between tanker and dry bulk markets and the growing influence of emissions regulations on voyage costs across the industry. A must-listen for anyone in freight and commodities—check it out! Listen to the full podcast here: