Weekly Freight Recap: 10/07/25

Overview The dry bulk market posted a largely positive performance this week, with firmer sentiment in the larger sizes and a generally steady tone in the smaller segments. Gains were most prominent in the Panamax and Supramax markets, while the Handysize sector remained relatively flat. Global market dynamics continued to reflect seasonally-driven movements, persistent tightness in certain regions, and broad support from FFA activity.

Handysize The Handysize market remained steady, with no notable directional shift. The BHSI closed at 640, reflecting only a marginal $17 increase in the 7TC average, now at $11,520. Across the Atlantic, limited fresh inquiry kept activity restrained. The Continent and Mediterranean both showed minimal movement, while the South Atlantic held firm in the absence of notable changes in cargo volume or tonnage availability.

In the U.S. Gulf, pressure persisted due to lower levels of prompt demand, placing strain on available units. Meanwhile, the Asian market continued to operate on balanced fundamentals, with supply and demand well-aligned — resulting in mostly sideways rate action.

Supramax Momentum remained positive in the Supramax segment, with the 11TC average rising by $326 to reach $14,548. Gains were reported across all major routes, albeit with limited visibility on actual fixture levels. Owners were increasingly confident, bolstered by firming FFA sentiment and steady demand from key loading areas.

In the Atlantic, both transatlantic and front-haul routes saw upward rate adjustments, driven by a combination of reduced tonnage and improving cargo availability. While the U.S. Gulf drew mixed opinions — some sensing a potential rate ceiling — sentiment on the whole remained upbeat.

In Asia, strong backhaul interest and consistent coal and mineral flows from Indonesia and Australia supported bullish undertones. Though visibility was limited, the tone across the basin leaned optimistic, with players holding back from premature rate concessions.

Panamax The Panamax market surged this week, led by significant activity in the Atlantic. The BPI timecharter average posted a sharp $4,693 gain to close at $14,590 — reflecting tight tonnage lists and persistent demand from both ECSA and North Atlantic origins. Transatlantic and front-haul routes were particularly firm, with owners meeting improved bids with greater resistance.

The strength in the Atlantic had a knock-on effect across Asia, helping to lift sentiment in the previously subdued Indonesian and Pacific rounds. Despite a slightly less aggressive tone than in the west, NoPac demand remained reliable, and the pull of firm period interest allowed owners to remain optimistic.

Across the board, Panamax owners appeared more bullish, with FFA support further validating upward expectations for late Q2 and early Q3.

Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin - Strong gains on transatlantic and front-haul routes - Tight tonnage in North Atlantic and ECSA - Period interest and FFAs further supporting momentum

Pacific Basin - Indonesian and Australian demand stable - NoPac volumes holding; owners reluctant to discount - Rate support driven more by Atlantic spillover than local dynamics

Handysize-Specific Notes - South Atlantic and Continent steady - U.S. Gulf still facing demand softness - Asia balanced, but with little growth momentum Trade Disruption & Security Watch Red Sea Attacks Escalate The security situation in the Red Sea has deteriorated, with attacks on commercial vessels intensifying. A Greek-operated ship was struck by sea drones and small boats, leading to injuries and damage, including to onboard communications. This marks the first coordinated multi-vessel attack since late 2023. These disruptions continue to affect global routing decisions and raise insurance and delay risks for vessels transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait toward the Suez Canal.

Pirate Activity Surges in Southeast Asia The Singapore and Malacca Straits have seen a significant increase in pirate incidents, with 57 of the 90 global attacks this year occurring in these waters, per the IMB. While most cases involve low-level theft, the sheer volume represents a 50% rise year-on-year. Given these straits handle around 30% of global trade, the uptick poses a material risk to safe navigation and crew welfare in one of the world’s most important chokepoints.

Outlook Looking ahead, key focus areas include: - Panamax period interest as FFAs continue to support Q3 premiums - Atlantic transatlantic tightness likely to persist into late July - Asia-Pacific sentiment contingent on Indo loadings and return demand - Security developments in the Red Sea and SE Asia, with potential for broader impact if insurance premiums climb further