Weekly Freight Recap: 19/03/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market showed a more fragmented picture this week. Larger sizes regained some strength on Atlantic-driven demand, while the geared segments continued to soften and Panamax moved into a more constructive but still uneven phase. A key theme now cutting across all segments is macro-driven volatility. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East is pushing energy costs higher, influencing bunker pricing, routing decisions, and overall risk appetite. At the same time, commodity flows are beginning to shift at the margins, adding another layer of complexity to positioning.

Handysize

Handysize remained under pressure, with sentiment weakening across most regions.

In the Continent and Mediterranean, the market was largely flat, with limited activity and little to drive change in either direction. The balance between cargo and tonnage is no longer tight enough to support higher levels, and owners are increasingly having to match charterer expectations to keep vessels employed.

The South Atlantic and US Gulf continued to trend softer. Persistent oversupply of tonnage combined with a lack of fresh enquiry has kept downward pressure on rates. This is now a structural issue rather than a temporary imbalance, and until cargo flow improves meaningfully, the basin is unlikely to stabilise.

Asia followed a similar path. Activity remained slow, cargo availability limited, and tonnage lists gradually building. Even where fixing occurs, it is not at levels that shift sentiment. Overall, Handysize is clearly in a corrective phase, with little immediate support visible.

Supramax

Supramax extended its downward trajectory, with weakness now evident across all basins.

The US Gulf continues to lead the decline, where a growing list of prompt vessels and limited new cargo have created a strongly charterer-driven environment. The South Atlantic remains sluggish, with insufficient demand to absorb available tonnage.

Continent and Mediterranean activity has not provided relief, lacking the volume needed to rebalance the market. In Asia, the tone has also softened further. Rising bunker prices are adding pressure to voyage economics, making charterers more cautious and reducing their willingness to chase tonnage.

At this stage, Supramax lacks a clear floor. The combination of oversupply, weak enquiry, and increasing cost volatility suggests further downside risk unless there is a meaningful pickup in cargo flow.

Panamax

Panamax showed more positive momentum this week, although the recovery remains uneven.

Atlantic conditions improved, particularly in the north, where vessel clearances have started to reduce prompt pressure. Owners have become more confident, and in some cases are holding back offers or testing higher levels following recent gains. Much of the recent support appears linked to mineral demand, while North Coast South America grain flows are also contributing to stronger sentiment.

In the south, activity is improving but still sensitive to positioning and forward visibility. Fixtures are being discussed at firmer levels, but the market has not fully transitioned into a clear upward trend.

Asia also strengthened. Increased cargo demand and firmer fixture activity have supported the basin, with both coal and grain flows contributing. Tonnage demand is improving, and charterers are increasingly having to engage more actively to secure suitable ships.

Overall, Panamax is the most balanced segment at present. While not strongly bullish, it is showing signs of recovery with both basins contributing, a shift from the earlier two-speed dynamic.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• Handysize and Supramax remain under pressure, particularly in the US Gulf and South Atlantic, where oversupply persists.

• Panamax is improving, supported by mineral demand and grain flows, with tightening prompt supply in the north beginning to shift sentiment.

Pacific Basin

• Handysize and Supramax continue to soften, with limited cargo and growing tonnage lists.

• Panamax is firmer, supported by steady cargo programs from Australia and Indonesia, although execution remains dependent on positioning and timing.

Indian Ocean

• Activity remains steady but insufficient to materially tighten the broader Supramax and Handysize markets. The region continues to act as a balancing area rather than a driver of sentiment.

Market Add-On: Cost, Policy, and Fleet Signals

Bunkers and energy markets Energy markets have moved sharply higher following escalation in the Middle East. Disruptions to oil and gas infrastructure and heightened conflict risk are feeding directly into bunker prices. This is now a primary driver of freight negotiations, widening bid-offer spreads and increasing hesitation in both spot and period markets.

Maritime security and routing Security risks around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified significantly. A portion of the global fleet is either delayed or rerouted, effectively reducing available capacity in the short term. This tightening effect is uneven but can provide localized support to freight markets, particularly for longer-haul trades that are directly impacted by rerouting.

Commodities and trade flows There are early signs of shifts in commodity flows. Iron ore cargoes are being redirected toward alternative destinations, while bauxite exports from West Africa are expected to tighten in the near term. Grain markets remain volatile, with input costs rising due to higher fertilizer prices linked to the energy market. These developments are not yet fully reflected in freight rates but are important directional indicators.

Policy and regulation Trade policy remains a background factor. Steel protection measures in Europe and the UK, combined with carbon-related regulation, continue to shape long-term trade patterns. In the short term, however, geopolitical risk and energy costs are the dominant drivers.

Outlook

Handysize is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply remains unresolved. Supramax faces continued downside risk unless a clear demand catalyst emerges to absorb excess tonnage. Panamax is best positioned among the segments, with improving fundamentals in both basins, though gains are likely to remain gradual rather than sharp.

Across all segments, expect volatility to remain elevated. Bunker costs, security risks, and evolving commodity flows are now as influential as traditional supply-demand fundamentals in shaping market direction.