Prices started the week lower across the board, led by US wheat. Weather-risk fears that pushed prices higher late last week eased, as winterkill damage is historically difficult to evaluate and often fades quickly from focus. CBOT weakness came despite further USD softening, suggesting the prior rally had been stretched.

The market carried a more constructive tone this week, but it was still shaped by winter operating conditions and selective demand rather than broad-based strength. Weather disruption in the North Atlantic created short-lived tightness and pockets of spot demand, while the Pacific remained more subdued and generally unchanged. Overall, activity was steady, but charterers were more measured, and owners with prompt positions were less willing to chase cargo aggressively.

With the U.S. on holiday, Paris futures traded on their own and were fairly muted despite a stronger EUR/USD and limited EU participation in recent North African tenders. The MATIF wheat H/K carry continued to shrink as U.S. markets reopened largely unchanged. Trump said he may slap a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, while also reiterating his intent to take control of Greenland.

Dry bulk freight markets strengthened across all major segments this week, driven by firmer demand, tightening tonnage lists, and improving sentiment. Rates trended higher in both basins, with momentum most visible in mid-sized vessels and growing spillover support from the Atlantic into the Pacific.

Our colleague Marc Cochet Myllerup joined a conversation with Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen at Steno Research to discuss soybeans, corn, and wheat markets. His insights highlighted challenges such as reduced wheat yields in France and Russia, and India's increased wheat imports. Marc emphasized the crucial role of weather and geopolitical factors in commodity markets, offering practical insights. He also shared how using CM Navigator, an innovative research tool, enhances market prediction capabilities, providing valuable insights for making informed investment decisions.

Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed