Agri- Commodities: 12-16/5/25
May 19, 2025
Monday kicked off with a flurry of major developments. The USDA’s first 2025/26 crop year projections revealed tighter-than-expected corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting those markets, though wheat futures lagged on a more bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade optimism resurfaced after both sides agreed to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, triggering gains in soybeans and financial markets. U.S. crop planting made notable headway, while winter wheat ratings improved by three points to 54% good to excellent.
Tuesday saw wheat prices rebound modestly, though gains were capped as traders awaited results from Algeria’s wheat tender. The Wheat Quality Council’s tour in Kansas projected an average yield of 50.5 bpa, above the five-year average, with final figures due Thursday. France revised down its soft wheat sowings, and U.S. inflation data allowed the euro to strengthen. EU soft wheat exports reached 18.26 mmt by May 11, with line-ups estimated at 21.7 mmt.
Wednesday Wednesday brought stronger momentum in wheat, particularly Kansas varieties, aided by disease concerns in U.S. fields. Algeria was reported to have bought at least 660k tons of milling wheat at $244.50/ton C&F, nearly doubling last year's July volumes. FranceAgriMer lifted export forecasts but cut ending stocks, while Russia reported minimal frost damage. The Kansas tour yielded a second-day average of 53.3 bpa. Speculators deepened their record net short in MATIF wheat, weighing on European futures.
Thursday Thursday’s session was mixed. Soybeans fell sharply on U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty, while wheat found strength in export sales—746k tons of new crop wheat were booked, marking the largest single-week sales volume for 2025/26 so far. The Kansas wheat yield estimate was finalized at 53.0 bpa, projecting production at 338.5 mbu, up 14% year-on-year. Friday Friday closed the week with wheat under pressure amid weaker French crop ratings and China’s weather alert, warning that extreme heat and dry winds could harm crops. Funds turned more bearish on corn and expanded net short positions in CBOT wheat to the highest level so far this year, though soybeans remained resilient with increased fund length. Weather outlooks signaled continued dryness in Germany.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/6/25 Agri
Jun 16, 2025
Grain markets were pulled in opposing directions throughout Week 24, as favorable crop prospects, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. policy developments generated volatile trading. The week opened with a sharp sell-off in corn and wheat, as improved U.S. crop conditions and benign weather forecasts reinforced expectations of ample supplies. Corn and wheat both fell more than 2% on Monday, effectively wiping out prior gains. U.S. crop ratings surprised to the upside, with corn at 71% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. Concurrently, stronger forecasts for Russian and Romanian wheat harvests added further pressure, while China’s surging soybean imports – largely sourced from Brazil – highlighted its continued pivot away from U.S. origin.
Freight
Freight Recap:
12/06/25
Jun 12, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market strengthened further, particularly in the North where limited tonnage availability led owners to raise offers.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
2-6/6/25 Agri
Jun 09, 2025
Grain markets opened June on a mixed footing, with wheat futures initially rallying on renewed geopolitical fears following escalations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the rally soon fizzled as U.S. crop progress data turned sentiment more bearish. Spring and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded expectations, with plantings and harvests advancing steadily. Meanwhile, USDA export inspections showed strong corn loadings, but soybeans and wheat lagged.
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
