Agri- Commodities: 12-16/5/25
May 19, 2025
Monday kicked off with a flurry of major developments. The USDA’s first 2025/26 crop year projections revealed tighter-than-expected corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting those markets, though wheat futures lagged on a more bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade optimism resurfaced after both sides agreed to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, triggering gains in soybeans and financial markets. U.S. crop planting made notable headway, while winter wheat ratings improved by three points to 54% good to excellent.
Tuesday saw wheat prices rebound modestly, though gains were capped as traders awaited results from Algeria’s wheat tender. The Wheat Quality Council’s tour in Kansas projected an average yield of 50.5 bpa, above the five-year average, with final figures due Thursday. France revised down its soft wheat sowings, and U.S. inflation data allowed the euro to strengthen. EU soft wheat exports reached 18.26 mmt by May 11, with line-ups estimated at 21.7 mmt.
Wednesday Wednesday brought stronger momentum in wheat, particularly Kansas varieties, aided by disease concerns in U.S. fields. Algeria was reported to have bought at least 660k tons of milling wheat at $244.50/ton C&F, nearly doubling last year's July volumes. FranceAgriMer lifted export forecasts but cut ending stocks, while Russia reported minimal frost damage. The Kansas tour yielded a second-day average of 53.3 bpa. Speculators deepened their record net short in MATIF wheat, weighing on European futures.
Thursday Thursday’s session was mixed. Soybeans fell sharply on U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty, while wheat found strength in export sales—746k tons of new crop wheat were booked, marking the largest single-week sales volume for 2025/26 so far. The Kansas wheat yield estimate was finalized at 53.0 bpa, projecting production at 338.5 mbu, up 14% year-on-year. Friday Friday closed the week with wheat under pressure amid weaker French crop ratings and China’s weather alert, warning that extreme heat and dry winds could harm crops. Funds turned more bearish on corn and expanded net short positions in CBOT wheat to the highest level so far this year, though soybeans remained resilient with increased fund length. Weather outlooks signaled continued dryness in Germany.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
