Agri- Commodities: 12-16/5/25
May 19, 2025
Monday kicked off with a flurry of major developments. The USDA’s first 2025/26 crop year projections revealed tighter-than-expected corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting those markets, though wheat futures lagged on a more bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade optimism resurfaced after both sides agreed to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, triggering gains in soybeans and financial markets. U.S. crop planting made notable headway, while winter wheat ratings improved by three points to 54% good to excellent.
Tuesday saw wheat prices rebound modestly, though gains were capped as traders awaited results from Algeria’s wheat tender. The Wheat Quality Council’s tour in Kansas projected an average yield of 50.5 bpa, above the five-year average, with final figures due Thursday. France revised down its soft wheat sowings, and U.S. inflation data allowed the euro to strengthen. EU soft wheat exports reached 18.26 mmt by May 11, with line-ups estimated at 21.7 mmt.
Wednesday Wednesday brought stronger momentum in wheat, particularly Kansas varieties, aided by disease concerns in U.S. fields. Algeria was reported to have bought at least 660k tons of milling wheat at $244.50/ton C&F, nearly doubling last year's July volumes. FranceAgriMer lifted export forecasts but cut ending stocks, while Russia reported minimal frost damage. The Kansas tour yielded a second-day average of 53.3 bpa. Speculators deepened their record net short in MATIF wheat, weighing on European futures.
Thursday Thursday’s session was mixed. Soybeans fell sharply on U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty, while wheat found strength in export sales—746k tons of new crop wheat were booked, marking the largest single-week sales volume for 2025/26 so far. The Kansas wheat yield estimate was finalized at 53.0 bpa, projecting production at 338.5 mbu, up 14% year-on-year. Friday Friday closed the week with wheat under pressure amid weaker French crop ratings and China’s weather alert, warning that extreme heat and dry winds could harm crops. Funds turned more bearish on corn and expanded net short positions in CBOT wheat to the highest level so far this year, though soybeans remained resilient with increased fund length. Weather outlooks signaled continued dryness in Germany.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
21/05/25
May 21, 2025
The Handysize segment saw mild gains in most Atlantic regions. The Continent and Mediterranean moved slightly higher, while the US Gulf and South Atlantic markets remained balanced, helped by steady cargo flows and tighter prompt tonnage. Sentiment was stable to slightly firmer across the basin.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
12-16/5/25 Agri
May 19, 2025
Monday kicked off with a flurry of major developments. The USDA’s first 2025/26 crop year projections revealed tighter-than-expected corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting those markets, though wheat futures lagged on a more bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade optimism resurfaced after both sides agreed to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, triggering gains in soybeans and financial markets. U.S. crop planting made notable headway, while winter wheat ratings improved by three points to 54% good to excellent.
Freight
Freight Recap:
15/05/25
May 15, 2025
The North Atlantic saw further pressure this week as mineral fronthaul activity continued at discounted levels and transatlantic demand remained thin. Tonnage availability increased, widening the bid-offer spread and contributing to a downward drift in rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
