Agri- Commodities: 12-16/5/25
May 19, 2025
Monday kicked off with a flurry of major developments. The USDA’s first 2025/26 crop year projections revealed tighter-than-expected corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting those markets, though wheat futures lagged on a more bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade optimism resurfaced after both sides agreed to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, triggering gains in soybeans and financial markets. U.S. crop planting made notable headway, while winter wheat ratings improved by three points to 54% good to excellent.
Tuesday saw wheat prices rebound modestly, though gains were capped as traders awaited results from Algeria’s wheat tender. The Wheat Quality Council’s tour in Kansas projected an average yield of 50.5 bpa, above the five-year average, with final figures due Thursday. France revised down its soft wheat sowings, and U.S. inflation data allowed the euro to strengthen. EU soft wheat exports reached 18.26 mmt by May 11, with line-ups estimated at 21.7 mmt.
Wednesday Wednesday brought stronger momentum in wheat, particularly Kansas varieties, aided by disease concerns in U.S. fields. Algeria was reported to have bought at least 660k tons of milling wheat at $244.50/ton C&F, nearly doubling last year's July volumes. FranceAgriMer lifted export forecasts but cut ending stocks, while Russia reported minimal frost damage. The Kansas tour yielded a second-day average of 53.3 bpa. Speculators deepened their record net short in MATIF wheat, weighing on European futures.
Thursday Thursday’s session was mixed. Soybeans fell sharply on U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty, while wheat found strength in export sales—746k tons of new crop wheat were booked, marking the largest single-week sales volume for 2025/26 so far. The Kansas wheat yield estimate was finalized at 53.0 bpa, projecting production at 338.5 mbu, up 14% year-on-year. Friday Friday closed the week with wheat under pressure amid weaker French crop ratings and China’s weather alert, warning that extreme heat and dry winds could harm crops. Funds turned more bearish on corn and expanded net short positions in CBOT wheat to the highest level so far this year, though soybeans remained resilient with increased fund length. Weather outlooks signaled continued dryness in Germany.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
11-15/08/25 Agri
Aug 18, 2025
Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates.
Freight
Freight Recap:
14/08/25
Aug 14, 2025
The dry bulk market presented a mixed performance this week, with the Supramax segment edging higher, Handysize holding steady with minor gains, and Panamax showing a regional split — weaker in the Atlantic, firmer in the Pacific.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
04–08/08/25 Agri
Aug 11, 2025
Grain markets swung sharply this week, rebounding midweek before easing, driven by yield outlooks, export data, and geopolitical headlines.
Freight
Freight Recap:
7/08/25
Aug 07, 2025
Port of Callao halted operations after an Evergreen ship lost 50 containers during rough weather. Meanwhile, July's freight data shows the market stuck in a supply-heavy “holding pattern,” with capacity expanding but pricing rising faster — suggesting a slow, uneven recovery in logistics and transportation
