Weekly Freight Recap: 14/08/25

Overview The dry bulk market presented a mixed performance this week, with the Supramax segment edging higher, Handysize holding steady with minor gains, and Panamax showing a regional split — weaker in the Atlantic, firmer in the Pacific. Seasonal factors, selective cargo flows, and varied regional imbalances defined the tone. While sentiment in certain basins remains constructive, broader momentum is uneven, leaving the market in a cautious but watchful stance.

Handysize The Handysize sector stayed largely on its existing trajectory, with the 7TC average adding $53 to close at $12,417. In the Atlantic, the Continent–Mediterranean area firmed slightly as demand outpaced supply, even with the holiday season limiting some activity. The South Atlantic, however, maintained a lacklustre tone amid subdued fresh enquiry.

In the U.S. Gulf, rates continued to firm, though fixtures remained closely guarded, keeping transparency low. Asia was stable overall, though northern areas saw a build-up of prompt tonnage, putting slight downward pressure on sentiment, while the south held steady.

Supramax The Supramax market maintained a broadly positive tone, with the 11TC average up $86 to finish at $16,887. Gains in the Continent–Mediterranean were underpinned by modest scrap cargo flows, while the U.S. Gulf held steady despite some talk of the market being “toppy.” The South Atlantic lagged, with enquiry levels failing to match supply.

In Asia, demand improved both north and south, with Indonesian coal and Australian mineral cargoes adding some momentum. Fixtures included the Sophiana (61,620 dwt, 2016) fixing at $19,250 for a coal trip to WC India, and the Avery Point (63,607 dwt, 2025) taking $14,750 for a trip via Cockatoo Island to Western Australia.

Panamax The Panamax sector saw diverging fortunes. The Atlantic continued to soften under the weight of limited fresh enquiry, slow grain and coal volumes, and a growing tonnage list, particularly on transatlantic and ECSA routes. Fronthaul demand showed only tentative signs of life.

Conversely, the Pacific strengthened, supported by steady Indonesian coal flows to China and renewed Australian activity. Tight tonnage lists in the south allowed for some premiums on prompt positions, with the Melia (76,225 dwt, 2005) reportedly securing between $16,500 and $17,000 for an Indonesian run to South China. Nonetheless, spot tonnage still discounted when missing ideal laycans. The BPI timecharter index slipped $17 to close at $14,342.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• Handysize: Continent–Med firming, South Atlantic flat

• Supramax: U.S. Gulf steady, South Atlantic underperforming

• Panamax: Transatlantic and ECSA routes pressured, fronthaul demand limited

Pacific Basin

• Handysize: Mostly steady, north faces prompt tonnage build-up

• Supramax: Improved enquiry both north and south, Indonesia/Australia supporting sentiment

• Panamax: Southern Pacific tightness lifting rates, Indonesian and Australian demand firm

Trade Disruption & Security Watch

Red Sea Risk Continues No major escalation reported this week, but vessel operators remain wary of routing decisions given the ongoing security risks and elevated insurance premiums in the Bab-el-Mandeb region.

Southeast Asia Piracy Watch Incidents in the Singapore and Malacca Straits remain elevated year-on-year, sustaining operational vigilance among owners and operators transiting the area.

Outlook

• Handysize:

  Atlantic to retain mild upward bias, though South Atlantic may remain flat; Asia likely rangebound unless northern tonnage overhang eases.

• Supramax:

  Continent–Med expected to hold firm, with Pacific sentiment supported by Indo coal and Aussie minerals.

• Panamax:

  Pacific strength could continue into next week; Atlantic recovery hinges on grain and coal volumes picking up.

• Security:

  Elevated insurance premiums in high-risk transit zones could impact voyage economics and routing strategies through Q3.