Agri- Commodities 04-08/08/25
Aug 11, 2025
Monday Markets opened the week with mixed results. The front MATIF milling wheat contract posted strong gains, supported by historically large remaining open interest from funds. In contrast, corn futures fell to new lows, pressured by expectations that the USDA will align with private analysts in sharply increasing US corn yield estimates.
Tuesday Wheat and corn faced renewed selling pressure, with several contracts hitting fresh lows. MATIF December wheat settled below the key psychological threshold of €200—a level not breached by December futures in over four years.
Wednesday US wheat prices showed early signs of stabilizing as the recent decline improved competitiveness for US-origin supplies. CBOT corn and soybeans continued to slip, weighed down by non-threatening US weather forecasts and ongoing Chinese avoidance of US imports. The weakening US dollar further eroded EU export competitiveness.
Thursday Grains staged a rebound from oversold levels, driven by short covering and bolstered by strong US export sales data. Open interest in September MATIF wheat fell sharply as funds actively closed or rolled positions, giving the front contract an additional lift.
Friday Grains ended the week on the defensive, surrendering part of Thursday’s gains amid caution ahead of a pivotal week. Global attention remained fixed on the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Fund positions stayed net short across the board, with limited concern over global supply prospects for the 2025/26 season. However, short covering remains a risk.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
