Agri- Commodities 04-08/08/25
Aug 11, 2025
Monday Markets opened the week with mixed results. The front MATIF milling wheat contract posted strong gains, supported by historically large remaining open interest from funds. In contrast, corn futures fell to new lows, pressured by expectations that the USDA will align with private analysts in sharply increasing US corn yield estimates.
Tuesday Wheat and corn faced renewed selling pressure, with several contracts hitting fresh lows. MATIF December wheat settled below the key psychological threshold of €200—a level not breached by December futures in over four years.
Wednesday US wheat prices showed early signs of stabilizing as the recent decline improved competitiveness for US-origin supplies. CBOT corn and soybeans continued to slip, weighed down by non-threatening US weather forecasts and ongoing Chinese avoidance of US imports. The weakening US dollar further eroded EU export competitiveness.
Thursday Grains staged a rebound from oversold levels, driven by short covering and bolstered by strong US export sales data. Open interest in September MATIF wheat fell sharply as funds actively closed or rolled positions, giving the front contract an additional lift.
Friday Grains ended the week on the defensive, surrendering part of Thursday’s gains amid caution ahead of a pivotal week. Global attention remained fixed on the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Fund positions stayed net short across the board, with limited concern over global supply prospects for the 2025/26 season. However, short covering remains a risk.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
14/08/25
Aug 14, 2025
The dry bulk market presented a mixed performance this week, with the Supramax segment edging higher, Handysize holding steady with minor gains, and Panamax showing a regional split — weaker in the Atlantic, firmer in the Pacific.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
04–08/08/25 Agri
Aug 11, 2025
Grain markets swung sharply this week, rebounding midweek before easing, driven by yield outlooks, export data, and geopolitical headlines.
Freight
Freight Recap:
7/08/25
Aug 07, 2025
Port of Callao halted operations after an Evergreen ship lost 50 containers during rough weather. Meanwhile, July's freight data shows the market stuck in a supply-heavy “holding pattern,” with capacity expanding but pricing rising faster — suggesting a slow, uneven recovery in logistics and transportation
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27–1/8/25 Agri
Aug 04, 2025
Monday opened with pressure across CBOT markets as favorable U.S. weather and Argentina’s cut to export taxes weighed on soybeans and corn, pushing both further below key psychological thresholds of $10 and $4, respectively. A new EU–U.S. trade agreement failed to lift agricultural prices but contributed to a sharp decline in the EUR/USD, offering direct support to MATIF wheat. U.S. wheat futures remained mostly unchanged.
