Agri- Commodities: 14/4- 18/4/25

Monday Grain markets began the week on a softer note, reversing much of Friday’s gains. Wheat futures—particularly Kansas—fell as forecasts turned wetter across the U.S. Plains, easing drought concerns. Corn prices also slipped slightly after a seven-day rally, likely due to light profit-taking. U.S. winter wheat conditions declined marginally to 47% good/excellent, consistent with expectations but still well below last year’s 55%. Spring wheat planting reached 7%, and corn and soybean planting made early progress, both in line with five-year averages. In Ukraine, spring sowing was delayed by cold weather and snow, though the setback is not seen as critical. However, wheat exports from Ukraine remain slow, casting doubt on reaching the season target. Russian wheat prices eased slightly to $250/ton FOB. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections showed strong corn and wheat volumes, with soybean numbers stable. China’s soybean imports hit their lowest March level since 2008 due to delays in Brazil’s harvest and tariffs.

Tuesday Tuesday was subdued across grain markets, with prices trending slightly lower in quiet trading. The market awaited results from Algeria’s wheat tender, a potential catalyst for wheat prices. Jordan booked wheat at a marginally lower price, while France revised up its winter wheat area estimate by 40k hectares, increasing production potential by 300k tons. Argentina also raised its upcoming wheat output forecast by over 10%, helped by favorable weather. U.S. private corn sales to Portugal continued the recent uptick in EU demand, while the soybean crush in March was slightly below expectations but still above February’s figures.

Wednesday Grain prices were mixed midweek. CBOT posted gains, while MATIF wheat slipped after it was revealed French wheat was likely excluded from Algeria’s latest purchases. The EUR/USD rose sharply, adding pressure on European grain. Algeria secured up to 630k tons of wheat, while Tunisia, Jordan, and Iran issued fresh tenders, signaling active demand. In France, soft wheat export forecasts were trimmed slightly, though ending stocks were revised down as well. EU wheat exports reached 16.67 mmt, with actual shipments likely closer to 19.4 mmt. India’s wheat reserves hit a three-year high, and speculative traders reduced short positions in MATIF wheat, though futures still slipped. U.S. markets faced broader pressure after Jerome Powell warned that new tariffs could complicate the Fed’s economic goals.

Thursday Markets were quiet ahead of the Easter holiday, with trading volumes thin and price moves modest. Russian wheat output was revised up slightly to 79.7 mmt, while the IGC trimmed its global 2025/26 wheat forecast but raised corn output expectations. Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of wheat at an average price of $263.89 per ton C&F. U.S. weekly export sales were within expectations across all major grains. The ECB cut interest rates again to combat slow eurozone growth and U.S. tariff pressure, while Trump renewed criticism of Jerome Powell, calling for rate cuts. Despite the noise, currency markets remained relatively calm.