Agri- Commodities: 19-23/5/25
May 26, 2025
Monday Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
Tuesday By Tuesday, a combination of declining U.S. crop ratings and adverse weather conditions in Russia and China reignited speculative interest. Wheat led the gains amid short-covering, with corn and soybeans following suit. EU wheat exports remained sluggish compared to last year, while rapeseed and soybean imports showed year-on-year growth. In Argentina, storm damage raised concerns over unharvested soybean acreage, prompting the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to warn of potential downward revisions. Russia’s Rostov region declared a state of emergency due to spring frost and drought, compounding crop stress. Meanwhile, currency shifts added to the volatility, with a weakening dollar and stronger euro challenging European export competitiveness.
Wednesday Momentum continued into Wednesday despite a quieter news cycle. Technical support and an extreme net short position in MATIF wheat futures triggered further short-covering. Sovecon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 81.0 mmt, citing improved winter wheat prospects. Algeria opened its tender to a broader set of corn origins, signaling flexibility. Non-commercial traders also boosted net long positions in MATIF rapeseed, contributing to its price recovery. The strengthening ruble, now below 80 to the dollar, signaled firmer Russian FOB values, potentially easing pressure on competing origins.
Thursday Thursday’s session saw a pause in wheat’s rally as speculative activity cooled ahead of the U.S. long weekend. Still, export demand remained evident, particularly in new-crop U.S. wheat. The IGC increased its global corn production forecast by 3 mmt but held wheat output steady. In trade policy, the EU approved sweeping tariff hikes on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer imports. Concurrently, Russia removed its wheat export floor price, potentially accelerating sales and driving its wheat index lower. Friday The week closed with a minor pullback on Friday, reflecting broader market caution amid fresh trade threats from former President Trump, who proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports before extending the deadline to July. U.S. funds continued adjusting positions, deepening corn net shorts and cutting soybean longs, while trimming wheat shorts. French wheat ratings dipped again, with warm and dry weather posing further risks. Despite Friday’s softness, wheat futures ended the week higher, supported by improved technical sentiment and short-covering dynamics.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
Freight
Freight Recap:
21/05/25
May 21, 2025
The Handysize segment saw mild gains in most Atlantic regions. The Continent and Mediterranean moved slightly higher, while the US Gulf and South Atlantic markets remained balanced, helped by steady cargo flows and tighter prompt tonnage. Sentiment was stable to slightly firmer across the basin.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
12-16/5/25 Agri
May 19, 2025
Monday kicked off with a flurry of major developments. The USDA’s first 2025/26 crop year projections revealed tighter-than-expected corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting those markets, though wheat futures lagged on a more bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade optimism resurfaced after both sides agreed to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, triggering gains in soybeans and financial markets. U.S. crop planting made notable headway, while winter wheat ratings improved by three points to 54% good to excellent.
Freight
Freight Recap:
15/05/25
May 15, 2025
The North Atlantic saw further pressure this week as mineral fronthaul activity continued at discounted levels and transatlantic demand remained thin. Tonnage availability increased, widening the bid-offer spread and contributing to a downward drift in rates.
