Agri- Commodities: 2-6/6/25
Jun 09, 2025
Monday Grain markets opened June on a mixed footing, with wheat futures initially rallying on renewed geopolitical fears following escalations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the rally soon fizzled as U.S. crop progress data turned sentiment more bearish. Spring and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded expectations, with plantings and harvests advancing steadily. Meanwhile, USDA export inspections showed strong corn loadings, but soybeans and wheat lagged.
Tuesday Tuesday brought a modest recovery for corn and soybeans, driven in part by expectations of renewed dialogue between U.S. and Chinese leaders. Wheat futures remained volatile as market participants reacted to developments in the Black Sea region. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry forecast a 10% drop in grain production for 2025, adding supply-side uncertainty. Globally, the OECD projected slowing economic growth through 2026, while inflation pressures persist. Meanwhile, a covert attack on the Kerch Bridge underscored the persistent risk premium in Black Sea logistics.
Wednesday Midweek trading was defined by choppy action and short-covering in European wheat markets. MATIF wheat once again hovered above the key €200 level, supported by an increasingly dangerous net short held by funds and mounting war tensions. Notably, Putin reportedly warned Trump of retaliatory measures after Ukrainian drone strikes. On the policy front, traders awaited the ECB’s decision with expectations of a 25 bp rate cut, signaling a potential easing bias amid sluggish eurozone growth.
Thursday Thursday saw broad-based gains, with soybeans lifted by positive sentiment following a phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi. The ECB’s dovish stance further supported the complex, although MATIF wheat underperformed. Weekly U.S. export sales landed within expectations, and USDA data confirmed solid early wheat commitments for the new marketing year. Algeria’s wheat import forecast was trimmed due to shipment delays, while the ECB signaled it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle, softening the euro’s bounce against the dollar. Friday On Friday, wheat led a week-ending rally, bolstered by pre-weekend short-covering and lingering geopolitical risk in the Black Sea. French wheat conditions slipped slightly, reflecting spring dryness, with implications for final yields. The U.S. dollar strengthened after a robust jobs report, tempering expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, grain traders turned their attention to next week’s key events: U.S.–China trade talks, CPI data, and dual USDA and CONAB updates. Speculative positioning revealed increased bearishness in corn and soybeans, while wheat shorts remained broadly unchanged.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
Freight
Freight Recap:
06/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
