Agri- Commodities 23-27/06/25
Jun 30, 2025
Monday The week began with a geopolitical reset after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While not formally confirmed by both sides, the perceived de-escalation quickly removed the risk premium that had temporarily lifted prices the previous week. This shift refocused market attention on bearish fundamentals, particularly ample global supply and weak demand indicators. U.S. crop ratings showed a mixed picture, with corn conditions declining by 2 percentage points and wheat ratings falling across the board. Meanwhile, the EU’s MARS raised its wheat yield forecast, bolstered by strong expectations in Southern and Eastern Europe. Russian FOB wheat prices firmed slightly, but U.S. export inspections and fund positioning revealed a broadly defensive tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought more of the same, as wheat faced heavy selling and CBOT corn tested contract lows. A large U.S. corn sale to Mexico provided a temporary lift, but expectations of record Brazilian corn production—estimated at over 140 mmt—quickly erased those gains. Despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, a strong EURUSD weighed on EU exports.
Wednesday By midweek, the market had fully retreated to pre-conflict levels. September CBOT corn and MATIF wheat both posted new contract lows, as the market struggled to find supportive drivers. U.S. confirmation that the Mideast conflict was "over for now" further diminished safe-haven interest. Russian crop prospects continued to improve, and speculators resumed selling after a short-lived bout of short covering the previous week.
Thursday Thursday’s session extended the slide, with bearish momentum intensifying on the back of numerous production upgrades. IKAR and the IGC raised their Russian and global wheat forecasts, respectively, while the European Commission lifted its soft wheat, barley, and maize estimates. Disappointing U.S. weekly export sales and a persistently strong EURUSD added further pressure, especially for EU-origin wheat. Friday Friday finally saw some stabilization, as traders squared positions ahead of Monday’s USDA stocks and acreage reports. Corn led the recovery on short covering, with soybeans and wheat following modestly. Statistics Canada’s lower-than-expected canola and wheat acreage figures lent some support, while FranceAgriMer data confirmed stable French crop conditions. Funds continued adjusting positions—reducing shorts in wheat and trimming longs in soybeans—highlighting the nervous anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. data.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
17/07/25
Jul 17, 2025
Shipping markets confront growing disruption amid unexplained Russian bank freezes and impending US trade tariffs, complicating payments and trade between key regions.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
07–11/07/25 Agri
Jul 14, 2025
Grain markets fell on favorable U.S. weather and better crop ratings. Corn dropped to a one-week low; wheat declined as harvest reached 53%. Soybeans were steady, supported by strong export demand and positioning ahead of pollination. USDA data showed higher corn and soybean export inspections, including firm soybean export demand. New corn sales to Mexico and a wheat agreement with Indonesia also added to the day’s developments. Market watched updated crop ratings, fund moves, tariffs, and EU trade data.
Freight
Freight Recap:
10/07/25
Jul 10, 2025
Shipping markets continue to face growing security risks. Two alarming incidents were reported in the Red Sea, where a Greek-operated bulk carrier was seriously damaged by a sea drone attack, resulting in injuries and crew missing.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
30–04/07/25 Agri
Jul 07, 2025
The week began with growing consensus that the USDA’s upcoming acreage revisions will have minimal impact on U.S. corn and soybean supply estimates. This outlook kept prices largely steady in those markets. Wheat continued to face pressure, with September and December MATIF milling wheat futures falling to new contract lows before recovering slightly, supported only by the lack of fresh bearish information from the USDA.
