Agri- Commodities 23-27/06/25
Jun 30, 2025
Monday The week began with a geopolitical reset after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While not formally confirmed by both sides, the perceived de-escalation quickly removed the risk premium that had temporarily lifted prices the previous week. This shift refocused market attention on bearish fundamentals, particularly ample global supply and weak demand indicators. U.S. crop ratings showed a mixed picture, with corn conditions declining by 2 percentage points and wheat ratings falling across the board. Meanwhile, the EU’s MARS raised its wheat yield forecast, bolstered by strong expectations in Southern and Eastern Europe. Russian FOB wheat prices firmed slightly, but U.S. export inspections and fund positioning revealed a broadly defensive tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought more of the same, as wheat faced heavy selling and CBOT corn tested contract lows. A large U.S. corn sale to Mexico provided a temporary lift, but expectations of record Brazilian corn production—estimated at over 140 mmt—quickly erased those gains. Despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, a strong EURUSD weighed on EU exports.
Wednesday By midweek, the market had fully retreated to pre-conflict levels. September CBOT corn and MATIF wheat both posted new contract lows, as the market struggled to find supportive drivers. U.S. confirmation that the Mideast conflict was "over for now" further diminished safe-haven interest. Russian crop prospects continued to improve, and speculators resumed selling after a short-lived bout of short covering the previous week.
Thursday Thursday’s session extended the slide, with bearish momentum intensifying on the back of numerous production upgrades. IKAR and the IGC raised their Russian and global wheat forecasts, respectively, while the European Commission lifted its soft wheat, barley, and maize estimates. Disappointing U.S. weekly export sales and a persistently strong EURUSD added further pressure, especially for EU-origin wheat. Friday Friday finally saw some stabilization, as traders squared positions ahead of Monday’s USDA stocks and acreage reports. Corn led the recovery on short covering, with soybeans and wheat following modestly. Statistics Canada’s lower-than-expected canola and wheat acreage figures lent some support, while FranceAgriMer data confirmed stable French crop conditions. Funds continued adjusting positions—reducing shorts in wheat and trimming longs in soybeans—highlighting the nervous anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. data.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of plateauing this week, with reduced spot activity prompting concerns of near-term softening. North Atlantic visibility remained limited, with owners and charterers continuing to disagree on rate expectations, leading to a widening bid-offer gap.
