Agri- Commodities 23-27/06/25
Jun 30, 2025
Monday The week began with a geopolitical reset after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While not formally confirmed by both sides, the perceived de-escalation quickly removed the risk premium that had temporarily lifted prices the previous week. This shift refocused market attention on bearish fundamentals, particularly ample global supply and weak demand indicators. U.S. crop ratings showed a mixed picture, with corn conditions declining by 2 percentage points and wheat ratings falling across the board. Meanwhile, the EU’s MARS raised its wheat yield forecast, bolstered by strong expectations in Southern and Eastern Europe. Russian FOB wheat prices firmed slightly, but U.S. export inspections and fund positioning revealed a broadly defensive tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought more of the same, as wheat faced heavy selling and CBOT corn tested contract lows. A large U.S. corn sale to Mexico provided a temporary lift, but expectations of record Brazilian corn production—estimated at over 140 mmt—quickly erased those gains. Despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, a strong EURUSD weighed on EU exports.
Wednesday By midweek, the market had fully retreated to pre-conflict levels. September CBOT corn and MATIF wheat both posted new contract lows, as the market struggled to find supportive drivers. U.S. confirmation that the Mideast conflict was "over for now" further diminished safe-haven interest. Russian crop prospects continued to improve, and speculators resumed selling after a short-lived bout of short covering the previous week.
Thursday Thursday’s session extended the slide, with bearish momentum intensifying on the back of numerous production upgrades. IKAR and the IGC raised their Russian and global wheat forecasts, respectively, while the European Commission lifted its soft wheat, barley, and maize estimates. Disappointing U.S. weekly export sales and a persistently strong EURUSD added further pressure, especially for EU-origin wheat. Friday Friday finally saw some stabilization, as traders squared positions ahead of Monday’s USDA stocks and acreage reports. Corn led the recovery on short covering, with soybeans and wheat following modestly. Statistics Canada’s lower-than-expected canola and wheat acreage figures lent some support, while FranceAgriMer data confirmed stable French crop conditions. Funds continued adjusting positions—reducing shorts in wheat and trimming longs in soybeans—highlighting the nervous anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. data.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
2/10/25
Oct 02, 2025
The dry bulk market displayed mixed conditions, with Handysize maintaining its upward momentum, Supramax undergoing further corrections, and Panamax continuing to weaken across both basins. Atlantic activity showed some resilience in smaller segments, while Asia was muted due to regional holidays. Broader sentiment in larger segments remained under pressure, influenced by excess tonnage and soft FFA signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
22-26/09/25 Agri
Sep 29, 2025
Grain markets opened the week under pressure after Argentina suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat, and by-products. The move sparked expectations of aggressive short-term sales, sending Chicago wheat to fresh contract lows and weighing on soybeans and soy products. MATIF wheat held just above recent lows ahead of Algeria’s tender, though sentiment remained weak as U.S. futures fell again and the euro strengthened to 1.18. U.S. inspections showed lighter soybean and corn volumes, while wheat topped expectations. Crop progress confirmed steady harvest advances but slight condition declines, with winter wheat planting just behind forecasts.
Freight
Freight Recap:
25/09/25
Sep 25, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a split tone. Handysize remained constructive on selective strength, Supramax was steady-to-softer with Atlantic support offset by Pacific pressure, and Panamax firmed on the day with more activity in both basins.
