Agri- Commodities 23-27/06/25
Jun 30, 2025
Monday The week began with a geopolitical reset after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While not formally confirmed by both sides, the perceived de-escalation quickly removed the risk premium that had temporarily lifted prices the previous week. This shift refocused market attention on bearish fundamentals, particularly ample global supply and weak demand indicators. U.S. crop ratings showed a mixed picture, with corn conditions declining by 2 percentage points and wheat ratings falling across the board. Meanwhile, the EU’s MARS raised its wheat yield forecast, bolstered by strong expectations in Southern and Eastern Europe. Russian FOB wheat prices firmed slightly, but U.S. export inspections and fund positioning revealed a broadly defensive tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought more of the same, as wheat faced heavy selling and CBOT corn tested contract lows. A large U.S. corn sale to Mexico provided a temporary lift, but expectations of record Brazilian corn production—estimated at over 140 mmt—quickly erased those gains. Despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, a strong EURUSD weighed on EU exports.
Wednesday By midweek, the market had fully retreated to pre-conflict levels. September CBOT corn and MATIF wheat both posted new contract lows, as the market struggled to find supportive drivers. U.S. confirmation that the Mideast conflict was "over for now" further diminished safe-haven interest. Russian crop prospects continued to improve, and speculators resumed selling after a short-lived bout of short covering the previous week.
Thursday Thursday’s session extended the slide, with bearish momentum intensifying on the back of numerous production upgrades. IKAR and the IGC raised their Russian and global wheat forecasts, respectively, while the European Commission lifted its soft wheat, barley, and maize estimates. Disappointing U.S. weekly export sales and a persistently strong EURUSD added further pressure, especially for EU-origin wheat. Friday Friday finally saw some stabilization, as traders squared positions ahead of Monday’s USDA stocks and acreage reports. Corn led the recovery on short covering, with soybeans and wheat following modestly. Statistics Canada’s lower-than-expected canola and wheat acreage figures lent some support, while FranceAgriMer data confirmed stable French crop conditions. Funds continued adjusting positions—reducing shorts in wheat and trimming longs in soybeans—highlighting the nervous anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. data.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
