Agri- Commodities: 31/3- 4/4/25

Monday Grain markets kicked off the week digesting the USDA’s planting intentions report, which offered mild support to wheat and modest pressure on corn. However, corn still managed to finish higher for the old crop, while soybeans slipped slightly. Export inspections showed strong performance for corn and solid showings for wheat and soybeans. Winter wheat conditions held steady in Kansas but declined in Texas and Oklahoma. Market attention began shifting toward President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement, raising questions over potential trade fallout.

Tuesday On Tuesday, all three major grains moved higher, led by a 2% surge in soybeans, driven by firmer soyoil prices and biofuel-related demand optimism. Weather forecasts called for heavy rainfall across key U.S. planting regions, raising the risk of delays but offering potential moisture benefits for winter crops. European markets remained concerned over persistent dryness across northern regions. Meanwhile, the USDA’s attaché in Morocco reported a modest recovery in wheat production. The market remained cautious ahead of the imminent tariff announcement.

Wednesday Wednesday brought a mixed performance, with grains closing narrowly changed as markets braced for the rollout of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The new measures introduced a baseline 10% duty on all nations, with steeper penalties for key trading partners including China and the EU. While equity markets sold off sharply, grains remained resilient. In India, a third consecutive record wheat harvest was forecast, though export restrictions remain. Speculative positioning revealed heavy short interest in MATIF wheat, while rapeseed attracted fresh buying.

Thursday On Thursday, soybeans sold off sharply under renewed trade war fears, while corn and wheat recovered earlier losses and briefly traded higher. OPEC+ surprised markets by raising output, contributing to a sharp drop in oil prices. The strengthening euro weighed on EU grain competitiveness. U.S. export sales were mixed, with strong wheat figures offsetting more tepid corn and soybean totals. Winter wheat conditions globally were mostly favorable, though some regions face drought-induced risks.

Friday Friday saw fresh volatility as China announced 34% tariffs on U.S. goods, dealing a heavy blow to soybeans, which fell over 3%. Corn ended higher, and wheat was mixed, with Euronext supported by currency movements. French wheat conditions improved, widening the quality gap versus last year. Meanwhile, recession fears mounted as JPMorgan projected a 2025 downturn tied to trade tensions, and funds extended bearish positions in corn and wheat while trimming shorts in soybeans.