Agri- Commodities: 31/3- 4/4/25
Apr 07, 2025
Monday Grain markets kicked off the week digesting the USDA’s planting intentions report, which offered mild support to wheat and modest pressure on corn. However, corn still managed to finish higher for the old crop, while soybeans slipped slightly. Export inspections showed strong performance for corn and solid showings for wheat and soybeans. Winter wheat conditions held steady in Kansas but declined in Texas and Oklahoma. Market attention began shifting toward President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement, raising questions over potential trade fallout.
Tuesday On Tuesday, all three major grains moved higher, led by a 2% surge in soybeans, driven by firmer soyoil prices and biofuel-related demand optimism. Weather forecasts called for heavy rainfall across key U.S. planting regions, raising the risk of delays but offering potential moisture benefits for winter crops. European markets remained concerned over persistent dryness across northern regions. Meanwhile, the USDA’s attaché in Morocco reported a modest recovery in wheat production. The market remained cautious ahead of the imminent tariff announcement.
Wednesday Wednesday brought a mixed performance, with grains closing narrowly changed as markets braced for the rollout of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The new measures introduced a baseline 10% duty on all nations, with steeper penalties for key trading partners including China and the EU. While equity markets sold off sharply, grains remained resilient. In India, a third consecutive record wheat harvest was forecast, though export restrictions remain. Speculative positioning revealed heavy short interest in MATIF wheat, while rapeseed attracted fresh buying.
Thursday On Thursday, soybeans sold off sharply under renewed trade war fears, while corn and wheat recovered earlier losses and briefly traded higher. OPEC+ surprised markets by raising output, contributing to a sharp drop in oil prices. The strengthening euro weighed on EU grain competitiveness. U.S. export sales were mixed, with strong wheat figures offsetting more tepid corn and soybean totals. Winter wheat conditions globally were mostly favorable, though some regions face drought-induced risks.
Friday Friday saw fresh volatility as China announced 34% tariffs on U.S. goods, dealing a heavy blow to soybeans, which fell over 3%. Corn ended higher, and wheat was mixed, with Euronext supported by currency movements. French wheat conditions improved, widening the quality gap versus last year. Meanwhile, recession fears mounted as JPMorgan projected a 2025 downturn tied to trade tensions, and funds extended bearish positions in corn and wheat while trimming shorts in soybeans.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
