Agri- Commodities: 5–9/5/25
May 12, 2025
Monday Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought a brief reprieve, with wheat recovering on concerns over drought-induced yield risks in China’s Henan province. The news prompted short covering, particularly as trade tensions eased with U.S.-China talks scheduled in Switzerland. EU wheat exports continued to progress, and China announced fresh economic stimulus measures to buffer trade conflict fallout. Despite cautious optimism, the Federal Reserve's impending rate decision kept broader markets in check.
Wednesday By midweek, initial enthusiasm faded. Grain prices turned lower again, pressured by robust U.S. weather outlooks and skepticism over meaningful progress in trade talks. Speculative positioning intensified bearish sentiment, with non-commercials extending record net shorts in Euronext wheat. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, citing persistent inflation, while geopolitical tensions resurfaced as President Trump ruled out tariff reductions without concessions from China.
Thursday Thursday’s session saw further weakness in grains, diverging from financial market rallies driven by a US-UK trade deal. However, a weaker euro offered potential support for European wheat. Statistics Canada reported tighter canola stocks, and U.S. export sales surprised to the upside for corn and wheat. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean outlook improved, adding to global supply pressure. With the USDA WASDE report looming, market participants focused on positioning. Friday Friday concluded with wheat futures hitting fresh lows amid ongoing favorable weather in key producing regions. Corn and soybeans firmed on strong export demand and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Fund activity reflected a continued bearish stance on wheat, while corn and soybean positions remained more balanced. Notably, talks between Washington and Beijing were described as constructive, hinting at potential tariff reductions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
03/07/25
Jul 03, 2025
The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained mixed.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
