Agri- Commodities: 5–9/5/25
May 12, 2025
Monday Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought a brief reprieve, with wheat recovering on concerns over drought-induced yield risks in China’s Henan province. The news prompted short covering, particularly as trade tensions eased with U.S.-China talks scheduled in Switzerland. EU wheat exports continued to progress, and China announced fresh economic stimulus measures to buffer trade conflict fallout. Despite cautious optimism, the Federal Reserve's impending rate decision kept broader markets in check.
Wednesday By midweek, initial enthusiasm faded. Grain prices turned lower again, pressured by robust U.S. weather outlooks and skepticism over meaningful progress in trade talks. Speculative positioning intensified bearish sentiment, with non-commercials extending record net shorts in Euronext wheat. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, citing persistent inflation, while geopolitical tensions resurfaced as President Trump ruled out tariff reductions without concessions from China.
Thursday Thursday’s session saw further weakness in grains, diverging from financial market rallies driven by a US-UK trade deal. However, a weaker euro offered potential support for European wheat. Statistics Canada reported tighter canola stocks, and U.S. export sales surprised to the upside for corn and wheat. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean outlook improved, adding to global supply pressure. With the USDA WASDE report looming, market participants focused on positioning. Friday Friday concluded with wheat futures hitting fresh lows amid ongoing favorable weather in key producing regions. Corn and soybeans firmed on strong export demand and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Fund activity reflected a continued bearish stance on wheat, while corn and soybean positions remained more balanced. Notably, talks between Washington and Beijing were described as constructive, hinting at potential tariff reductions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
6/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
Freight
Freight Recap:
30/10/25
Oct 30, 2025
Freight markets continued to ease across the board this week, with Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments all facing renewed pressure. Sentiment turned cautious as limited fresh demand and increasing tonnage lists in both basins weighed on rates, suggesting that the short-lived rally in mid-October may have topped out.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
20-24/10/25 Agri
Oct 27, 2025
Grain markets experienced a volatile but directionally mixed week, driven by optimism surrounding renewed US–China trade talks, fluctuating macro sentiment, and shifting global production estimates. Soybeans led early in the week, supported by trade optimism and strong export inspections, while wheat and corn were more restrained, pressured by abundant supply outlooks and mixed demand signals.
Monday began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender.
