Agri- Commodities: 5–9/5/25
May 12, 2025
Monday Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought a brief reprieve, with wheat recovering on concerns over drought-induced yield risks in China’s Henan province. The news prompted short covering, particularly as trade tensions eased with U.S.-China talks scheduled in Switzerland. EU wheat exports continued to progress, and China announced fresh economic stimulus measures to buffer trade conflict fallout. Despite cautious optimism, the Federal Reserve's impending rate decision kept broader markets in check.
Wednesday By midweek, initial enthusiasm faded. Grain prices turned lower again, pressured by robust U.S. weather outlooks and skepticism over meaningful progress in trade talks. Speculative positioning intensified bearish sentiment, with non-commercials extending record net shorts in Euronext wheat. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, citing persistent inflation, while geopolitical tensions resurfaced as President Trump ruled out tariff reductions without concessions from China.
Thursday Thursday’s session saw further weakness in grains, diverging from financial market rallies driven by a US-UK trade deal. However, a weaker euro offered potential support for European wheat. Statistics Canada reported tighter canola stocks, and U.S. export sales surprised to the upside for corn and wheat. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean outlook improved, adding to global supply pressure. With the USDA WASDE report looming, market participants focused on positioning. Friday Friday concluded with wheat futures hitting fresh lows amid ongoing favorable weather in key producing regions. Corn and soybeans firmed on strong export demand and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Fund activity reflected a continued bearish stance on wheat, while corn and soybean positions remained more balanced. Notably, talks between Washington and Beijing were described as constructive, hinting at potential tariff reductions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
15/05/25
May 15, 2025
The North Atlantic saw further pressure this week as mineral fronthaul activity continued at discounted levels and transatlantic demand remained thin. Tonnage availability increased, widening the bid-offer spread and contributing to a downward drift in rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
