Agri- Commodities: 5–9/5/25
May 12, 2025
Monday Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought a brief reprieve, with wheat recovering on concerns over drought-induced yield risks in China’s Henan province. The news prompted short covering, particularly as trade tensions eased with U.S.-China talks scheduled in Switzerland. EU wheat exports continued to progress, and China announced fresh economic stimulus measures to buffer trade conflict fallout. Despite cautious optimism, the Federal Reserve's impending rate decision kept broader markets in check.
Wednesday By midweek, initial enthusiasm faded. Grain prices turned lower again, pressured by robust U.S. weather outlooks and skepticism over meaningful progress in trade talks. Speculative positioning intensified bearish sentiment, with non-commercials extending record net shorts in Euronext wheat. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, citing persistent inflation, while geopolitical tensions resurfaced as President Trump ruled out tariff reductions without concessions from China.
Thursday Thursday’s session saw further weakness in grains, diverging from financial market rallies driven by a US-UK trade deal. However, a weaker euro offered potential support for European wheat. Statistics Canada reported tighter canola stocks, and U.S. export sales surprised to the upside for corn and wheat. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean outlook improved, adding to global supply pressure. With the USDA WASDE report looming, market participants focused on positioning. Friday Friday concluded with wheat futures hitting fresh lows amid ongoing favorable weather in key producing regions. Corn and soybeans firmed on strong export demand and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Fund activity reflected a continued bearish stance on wheat, while corn and soybean positions remained more balanced. Notably, talks between Washington and Beijing were described as constructive, hinting at potential tariff reductions.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/6/25 Agri
Jun 16, 2025
Grain markets were pulled in opposing directions throughout Week 24, as favorable crop prospects, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. policy developments generated volatile trading. The week opened with a sharp sell-off in corn and wheat, as improved U.S. crop conditions and benign weather forecasts reinforced expectations of ample supplies. Corn and wheat both fell more than 2% on Monday, effectively wiping out prior gains. U.S. crop ratings surprised to the upside, with corn at 71% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. Concurrently, stronger forecasts for Russian and Romanian wheat harvests added further pressure, while China’s surging soybean imports – largely sourced from Brazil – highlighted its continued pivot away from U.S. origin.
Freight
Freight Recap:
12/06/25
Jun 12, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market strengthened further, particularly in the North where limited tonnage availability led owners to raise offers.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
2-6/6/25 Agri
Jun 09, 2025
Grain markets opened June on a mixed footing, with wheat futures initially rallying on renewed geopolitical fears following escalations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the rally soon fizzled as U.S. crop progress data turned sentiment more bearish. Spring and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded expectations, with plantings and harvests advancing steadily. Meanwhile, USDA export inspections showed strong corn loadings, but soybeans and wheat lagged.
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
