Agri- Commodities: 5–9/5/25
May 12, 2025
Monday Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Tuesday Tuesday brought a brief reprieve, with wheat recovering on concerns over drought-induced yield risks in China’s Henan province. The news prompted short covering, particularly as trade tensions eased with U.S.-China talks scheduled in Switzerland. EU wheat exports continued to progress, and China announced fresh economic stimulus measures to buffer trade conflict fallout. Despite cautious optimism, the Federal Reserve's impending rate decision kept broader markets in check.
Wednesday By midweek, initial enthusiasm faded. Grain prices turned lower again, pressured by robust U.S. weather outlooks and skepticism over meaningful progress in trade talks. Speculative positioning intensified bearish sentiment, with non-commercials extending record net shorts in Euronext wheat. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, citing persistent inflation, while geopolitical tensions resurfaced as President Trump ruled out tariff reductions without concessions from China.
Thursday Thursday’s session saw further weakness in grains, diverging from financial market rallies driven by a US-UK trade deal. However, a weaker euro offered potential support for European wheat. Statistics Canada reported tighter canola stocks, and U.S. export sales surprised to the upside for corn and wheat. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean outlook improved, adding to global supply pressure. With the USDA WASDE report looming, market participants focused on positioning. Friday Friday concluded with wheat futures hitting fresh lows amid ongoing favorable weather in key producing regions. Corn and soybeans firmed on strong export demand and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Fund activity reflected a continued bearish stance on wheat, while corn and soybean positions remained more balanced. Notably, talks between Washington and Beijing were described as constructive, hinting at potential tariff reductions.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
