Agri- Commodities 16-20/06/25
Jun 23, 2025
Monday Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
Tuesday On Tuesday, U.S. wheat futures found support amid the drop in winter wheat ratings and risk positioning ahead of the Juneteenth holiday. Traders were influenced by both fundamentals and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, as former President Trump voiced support for ending negotiations with Iran. Algeria’s wheat tender reaffirmed the Black Sea’s export competitiveness, securing around 550k tons at stable prices, mostly from Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports edged higher, though line-up data suggests a more substantial pace than official numbers indicate.
Wednesday Wednesday saw wheat futures rally over 4% in the U.S. and nearly 3% in Europe, fueled by fund short covering, adverse Russian crop headlines, and war-related concerns. A state of emergency in drought-hit Krasnodar amplified Russian supply concerns, while heavy speculative short positions in MATIF wheat underpinned the rally. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates steady, but the economic outlook was clouded by the administration’s trade policies and rising geopolitical tensions.
Thursday Thursday’s holiday-thinned session saw quieter trade, though geopolitical risk remained front and center. Markets digested reports that President Trump was giving diplomacy two more weeks before deciding on military action against Iran. Iran, in turn, warned of potential retaliation and threatened the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Argentine wheat planting accelerated, while harvests for soy and corn continued, though rains have delayed corn progress. Friday Friday closed the week with broad declines across grain futures. Russia raised its wheat production outlook to 90 mmt for 2025, while France saw a slight deterioration in wheat conditions. U.S. export sales showed decent volumes, particularly for old crop soybeans. The key development over the weekend was the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite the gravity of the strikes, the immediate market reaction was surprisingly restrained, suggesting traders are awaiting Tehran’s next move.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
