Agri- Commodities 16-20/06/25

Monday Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.

Tuesday On Tuesday, U.S. wheat futures found support amid the drop in winter wheat ratings and risk positioning ahead of the Juneteenth holiday. Traders were influenced by both fundamentals and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, as former President Trump voiced support for ending negotiations with Iran. Algeria’s wheat tender reaffirmed the Black Sea’s export competitiveness, securing around 550k tons at stable prices, mostly from Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports edged higher, though line-up data suggests a more substantial pace than official numbers indicate.

Wednesday Wednesday saw wheat futures rally over 4% in the U.S. and nearly 3% in Europe, fueled by fund short covering, adverse Russian crop headlines, and war-related concerns. A state of emergency in drought-hit Krasnodar amplified Russian supply concerns, while heavy speculative short positions in MATIF wheat underpinned the rally. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates steady, but the economic outlook was clouded by the administration’s trade policies and rising geopolitical tensions.

Thursday Thursday’s holiday-thinned session saw quieter trade, though geopolitical risk remained front and center. Markets digested reports that President Trump was giving diplomacy two more weeks before deciding on military action against Iran. Iran, in turn, warned of potential retaliation and threatened the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Argentine wheat planting accelerated, while harvests for soy and corn continued, though rains have delayed corn progress. Friday Friday closed the week with broad declines across grain futures. Russia raised its wheat production outlook to 90 mmt for 2025, while France saw a slight deterioration in wheat conditions. U.S. export sales showed decent volumes, particularly for old crop soybeans. The key development over the weekend was the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite the gravity of the strikes, the immediate market reaction was surprisingly restrained, suggesting traders are awaiting Tehran’s next move.