Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 18-22/03/24
Mar 25, 2024
The grain markets were marked by significant developments this week, with volatility and uncertainty being the key themes. A series of factors primarily drove these, each playing a crucial role in shaping the market landscape.
Wheat prices surged on Monday, propelled by the reintroduction of a war risk premium following a Russian drone attack on port infrastructure over the weekend. This event and short covering by funds after active selling the previous week led to a notable price rebound. The Ukraine Agriculture Ministry's report indicated a shift in planting intentions among local farmers, with a reduction in corn and spring wheat acreage and an increase in soybeans and spring barley, adding further complexity to market sentiment. Additionally, concerns emerged regarding the pace of Ukrainian exports, which slowed down in the first half of March compared to previous months, possibly indicating supply constraints. Meanwhile, China's weakening demand for wheat, as reflected in lower import figures for January and February, contributed to a nuanced market outlook.
Tuesday witnessed the continuation of bullish sentiment, with MATIF Milling wheat closing above the psychological 200 euro level for the first time in three weeks. The EU's discussions surrounding potential tariffs on imports of Russian and Belarusian grains stirred market sentiment, albeit with uncertainties regarding the practical implications, particularly concerning transit exemptions. Additionally, tenders issued by Jordan for feed barley and soft wheat, along with Egypt's GASC seeking wheat for May shipment, highlighted ongoing demand patterns shaping market behavior.
Wednesday saw a mix of price movements in the grain markets. Wheat prices faced pressure due to reports of potential adjustments to Russian grain export taxes. Corn prices remained relatively stable, while soybeans surged, influenced by adverse weather conditions in Argentina and a flash sale in the United States. The European Commission's reaffirmation of its commitment to act in the event of a surge in Ukrainian wheat imports highlighted the role of geopolitical factors in market dynamics, further emphasizing the global nature of the grain markets.
Thursday's session saw wheat, corn, and soybeans closing slightly higher amid choppy trading, with limited news flow. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's downward revision of Argentina's corn crop estimate and forecasts indicating stable soybean imports by China for the upcoming marketing year offered mixed signals to market participants. Reports of potential tariffs by the EU on Russian agricultural products added another layer of uncertainty, with implications for global trade flows and market structures. Additionally, SovEcon's upward revision of the Russian wheat crop estimate for the 2024/25 season highlighted the evolving supply dynamics in key producing regions, influencing market sentiment.
The end of the week was marked by renewed concerns about potential disruptions to Black Sea exports amidst escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. May MATIF Milling wheat witnessed significant price jumps, reacting to news of Russian grain export blocks and the EU's proposal to increase tariffs on imports from Russia and Belarus. The role of speculative trading was evident in further amplifying price movements through fund shortcover, highlighting its influence on market behavior. Against this backdrop, attention turned to upcoming USDA reports and ongoing developments in geopolitical hotspots, poised to impact market sentiment and price trajectories in the coming days.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
