Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 25-29/03/24
Apr 01, 2024
The week of March 25 to March 28, 2024, unfolded with mixed sentiments and varied price movements in the grain markets.
On Monday, the May MATIF Milling wheat futures retreated slightly, relinquishing some gains from the previous session. While developments in the Black Sea region continued to influence market sentiment, traders also positioned themselves ahead of important USDA reports scheduled for later in the week. Russia's agricultural watchdog proposed redistributing grain export quotas, potentially impacting exporters like TD RIF. Analysts noted increased prices of Russian wheat, while Jordan cancelled a tender for milling wheat.
Prices across the board declined on Tuesday, with the wheat rally driven by Black Sea-related headlines proving short-lived. Attention turned to USDA reports scheduled for later in the week, prompting cautious positioning by traders. The EU's soft wheat exports increased, albeit with discrepancies in reported data. Kazakhstan projected an increase in wheat production for 2024. Market participants awaited USDA reports, particularly for insights into quarterly stocks and planting intentions.
Wednesday marked the last trading day of the month and quarter, with volatility expected ahead of USDA reports. Non-commercial participants reduced their net short positions in MATIF milling wheat, but prices erased gains, potentially prompting short positions to increase again. Jordan issued a tender for feed barley, while Russian wheat exports remained steady despite ongoing concerns. The spread between May and September MATIF milling wheat contracts reached new lows.
On Thursday, the EU Commission's initial estimates indicated a decrease in soft wheat production, primarily in France, Germany, and Lithuania, offset by recoveries in Spain, Denmark, and Latvia. Saudi Arabia issued a tender for wheat, while the EU Commission projected decreases in usable soft wheat production but recoveries in barley and corn crops. USDA reports revealed lower-than-expected corn acreage but higher-than-expected soybean acreage, influencing market sentiment.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
