Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 25-29/03/24
Apr 01, 2024
The week of March 25 to March 28, 2024, unfolded with mixed sentiments and varied price movements in the grain markets.
On Monday, the May MATIF Milling wheat futures retreated slightly, relinquishing some gains from the previous session. While developments in the Black Sea region continued to influence market sentiment, traders also positioned themselves ahead of important USDA reports scheduled for later in the week. Russia's agricultural watchdog proposed redistributing grain export quotas, potentially impacting exporters like TD RIF. Analysts noted increased prices of Russian wheat, while Jordan cancelled a tender for milling wheat.
Prices across the board declined on Tuesday, with the wheat rally driven by Black Sea-related headlines proving short-lived. Attention turned to USDA reports scheduled for later in the week, prompting cautious positioning by traders. The EU's soft wheat exports increased, albeit with discrepancies in reported data. Kazakhstan projected an increase in wheat production for 2024. Market participants awaited USDA reports, particularly for insights into quarterly stocks and planting intentions.
Wednesday marked the last trading day of the month and quarter, with volatility expected ahead of USDA reports. Non-commercial participants reduced their net short positions in MATIF milling wheat, but prices erased gains, potentially prompting short positions to increase again. Jordan issued a tender for feed barley, while Russian wheat exports remained steady despite ongoing concerns. The spread between May and September MATIF milling wheat contracts reached new lows.
On Thursday, the EU Commission's initial estimates indicated a decrease in soft wheat production, primarily in France, Germany, and Lithuania, offset by recoveries in Spain, Denmark, and Latvia. Saudi Arabia issued a tender for wheat, while the EU Commission projected decreases in usable soft wheat production but recoveries in barley and corn crops. USDA reports revealed lower-than-expected corn acreage but higher-than-expected soybean acreage, influencing market sentiment.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
03/07/25
Jul 03, 2025
The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained mixed.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
