Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 29/04-03/05/24
May 03, 2024
Wheat prices underwent a correction on Monday, dropping over 2% primarily due to an improved weather outlook in South Russia. This correction was particularly evident in MATIF and CBOT wheat contracts. However, Kansas wheat prices remained resilient, buoyed by declining Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat ratings. Russian wheat prices saw a slight increase, with 12.5% protein Russian wheat prices on a FOB basis for May/June shipment rising to $212 per ton. US weekly export inspections met expectations, with soybeans totalling 250k tons, corn 1226k tons, and wheat 481k tons. Crop progress reports confirmed declining HRW wheat conditions, although corn and soybean plantings were progressing steadily.
Wheat prices continued their downward trend on Tuesday as profit-taking led to prices falling below key moving averages. Jordan cancelled a tender for milling wheat due to perceived high prices. USDA attaché reports forecasted steady wheat production in Australia but highlighted regional disparities in planting conditions. Market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, impacting currency markets, with EUR/USD falling to approximately 1.065.
Grain markets exhibited mixed movements on Wednesday, with wheat prices declining while soybeans and corn prices rose. Ukraine's strong grain exports persisted, with April exports surpassing previous months. Weather models suggested wetter conditions in key growing regions, potentially impacting planting progress. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates influenced market volatility, with oil prices facing downward pressure on surging US commercial crude oil stockpiles. MATIF remained closed, contributing to low trading volume on CBOT.
Soybeans and corn rallied on Thursday amidst concerns over flooding in southern Brazil, frost risk in Argentina, and potential planting delays in the US. This weather-driven market contrasted with the rebound in wheat prices, which managed to close slightly higher after three consecutive down sessions. Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn estimate, adding to market sentiment. US weekly export sales met expectations, with reductions in drought conditions reported. Non-commercial participants were active buyers of MATIF wheat.
Wheat prices closed the week on a strong note on Friday, driven by renewed concerns over the Russian wheat crop. French wheat ratings remained stable, while the US reported soybean sales to unknown destinations. Funds continued to cover short positions in corn and wheat, with wheat prices testing previous highs. The softer US jobs report suggested potential future rate cuts, impacting market sentiment. US stock indices rallied, and the dollar weakened as markets priced in the possibility of rate cuts later in the year.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
