Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 29/04-03/05/24
May 03, 2024
Wheat prices underwent a correction on Monday, dropping over 2% primarily due to an improved weather outlook in South Russia. This correction was particularly evident in MATIF and CBOT wheat contracts. However, Kansas wheat prices remained resilient, buoyed by declining Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat ratings. Russian wheat prices saw a slight increase, with 12.5% protein Russian wheat prices on a FOB basis for May/June shipment rising to $212 per ton. US weekly export inspections met expectations, with soybeans totalling 250k tons, corn 1226k tons, and wheat 481k tons. Crop progress reports confirmed declining HRW wheat conditions, although corn and soybean plantings were progressing steadily.
Wheat prices continued their downward trend on Tuesday as profit-taking led to prices falling below key moving averages. Jordan cancelled a tender for milling wheat due to perceived high prices. USDA attaché reports forecasted steady wheat production in Australia but highlighted regional disparities in planting conditions. Market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, impacting currency markets, with EUR/USD falling to approximately 1.065.
Grain markets exhibited mixed movements on Wednesday, with wheat prices declining while soybeans and corn prices rose. Ukraine's strong grain exports persisted, with April exports surpassing previous months. Weather models suggested wetter conditions in key growing regions, potentially impacting planting progress. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates influenced market volatility, with oil prices facing downward pressure on surging US commercial crude oil stockpiles. MATIF remained closed, contributing to low trading volume on CBOT.
Soybeans and corn rallied on Thursday amidst concerns over flooding in southern Brazil, frost risk in Argentina, and potential planting delays in the US. This weather-driven market contrasted with the rebound in wheat prices, which managed to close slightly higher after three consecutive down sessions. Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn estimate, adding to market sentiment. US weekly export sales met expectations, with reductions in drought conditions reported. Non-commercial participants were active buyers of MATIF wheat.
Wheat prices closed the week on a strong note on Friday, driven by renewed concerns over the Russian wheat crop. French wheat ratings remained stable, while the US reported soybean sales to unknown destinations. Funds continued to cover short positions in corn and wheat, with wheat prices testing previous highs. The softer US jobs report suggested potential future rate cuts, impacting market sentiment. US stock indices rallied, and the dollar weakened as markets priced in the possibility of rate cuts later in the year.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
03/07/25
Jul 03, 2025
The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained mixed.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
