Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 27-31/05/24

The week commenced with a bullish sentiment in the wheat market, primarily influenced by revised forecasts for Russian wheat production. IKAR analysts adjusted their estimates downward, predicting the Russian wheat crop to range between 78-84 million metric tons (mmt), a significant decrease from earlier projections of 83.5 mmt. This revision and frost damage affecting up to 2 million hectares of crops catalysed a sharp rise in MATIF wheat futures. Traders swiftly reacted to the new data, anticipating tighter global supply.

In addition to the revised forecasts, prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat on a FOB basis increased to $247 per ton, reflecting an $8 rise from the previous week. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) lowered its 2024 grain and oilseed harvest forecast to 74.6 mmt, down from 76.1 mmt, highlighting ongoing challenges in the region. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) also slightly reduced its 2024 EU soft wheat yield projection to 5.92 tons per hectare (t/ha), maintaining a cautious outlook for the European market.

Tuesday's trading session saw a mixed performance, with Chicago wheat unable to maintain its initial gains. This was partly due to pressure from declining MATIF prices, indicating a market correction following the previous day’s rally. Analysts from SovEcon further revised their forecast for Russian wheat production to 82.1 mmt for the 2024/25 season.

Regarding export dynamics, Jordan rejected offers for 120k tons of milling wheat due to high prices, while EU soft wheat exports reached 27.83 million tons, and corn imports totalled 16.69 million tons as of May 26. US export inspections reported 212k tons of soybeans, 1077k tons of corn, and 399k tons of wheat, highlighting ongoing demand despite price fluctuations.

US crop progress showed that winter wheat conditions dropped to 48% good/excellent. Spring wheat planting progressed to 88% complete, while corn and soybean plantings reached 83% and 68% complete, respectively. This shows substantial progress and contributes to downward pressure on prices.

Wednesday saw a broad decline in grain prices, driven by robust US crop progress and planting conditions. Wheat prices remained relatively unaffected by discussions about India's potential resumption of wheat imports, suggesting that market participants were awaiting more concrete developments.

Non-commercial participants increased their net long position in MATIF milling wheat to 118.7k contracts. At the same time, India's government signalled intentions to resume wheat imports, likely from Russia, to replenish reserves and stabilise domestic prices. This move may include temporarily removing the 40% import tax, signalling a potential shift in global wheat trade dynamics.

Grain prices continued their downward trajectory on Thursday, with wheat leading the decline. Corn and soybean prices also fell, reflecting month-end selling pressure and favourable weather forecasts.

In regulatory developments, the European Council adopted a regulation imposing prohibitive tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus starting July 1, 2024. These tariffs aim to stabilise the market and prevent the entry of illegally appropriated grain from Ukraine.

The US Drought Monitor reported that winter wheat in drought-affected areas remained at 25%, with minimal impact on corn (5%) and soybeans (3%). These figures underscore the favourable soil moisture conditions entering the summer, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the grain markets.

Friday ended the week on a subdued note, with only MATIF wheat showing slight gains. The market remains cautiously optimistic about potential support from Algeria's wheat demand and adverse weather forecasts for Russian-growing regions.

At the Russian Grain Forum, official sources stated that India plans to import 3-5 mmt of wheat in 2024, mainly from Russia. The country also plans to import more chickpeas and yellow peas from Russia. However, private estimates suggest more conservative figures for the Russian wheat harvest, around 77 mmt, indicating potential tightness in the global supply.

In France, 61% of soft wheat was rated as good/excellent as of May 27, a two-point decline from the previous week. Grain maise sowing progressed from 77% to 85% complete.

US weekly export sales totalled 321k tons of wheat, 998k tons of corn, and 336k tons of soybeans. New crop US soybean sales remained weak at just 7k tons, with cumulative sales at 963k tons for the 24/25 season. Funds continued to hold significant short positions in CBOT wheat (~25.4k contracts), corn (~133.5k contracts), and soybeans (~14.2k contracts), reflecting bearish market sentiment.