Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 17-21/06/24
Jun 24, 2024
The week began with a continued decline in US wheat prices due to harvest pressure and stabilized Russian crop forecasts. The US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly, reaching 27% completion, significantly higher than expected. The condition of remaining winter wheat fields improved to 49% good/excellent. US spring wheat ratings increased by four percentage points to 76% good/excellent, while US corn and soybean conditions worsened by two percentage points each. IKAR reported a drop in 12.5% protein Russian wheat prices to $234 per ton. US weekly export inspections exceeded expectations for soybeans, corn, and wheat. The NOPA reported a record May soybean crush of 183.6 million bushels.
On Tuesday corn and soybeans rebounded due to worsening US crop ratings and a heatwave, while wheat prices continued to decline. EU soft wheat exports reached 29.15 million tons, with corn imports rising to 17.97 million tons. Romania's Constanta port handled 12.6 million tons of grain in the first five months, a 3.6% year-over-year increase despite reduced Ukrainian grain volumes. Ukraine exported 0.51 million tons of wheat and 1.3 million tons of corn in early June, suggesting USDA estimates may be too low. The US experienced a hot week with good soil moisture, critical for corn development if temperatures remain high into July.
Wednesday MATIF milling wheat futures traded within a narrow range but closed higher. The session was slow due to the US holiday, with lower prices on CBOT. The German Association of Farm Cooperatives projected 2024 wheat production at 20.34 million tons, a slight increase from May estimates but down year-over-year. Winter rapeseed production is expected to decrease by 8% to 3.89 million tons. IKAR analysts revised the Russian wheat crop forecast upward to 82.0 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased the wheat planting area to 6.3 million hectares, projecting a crop of 18.1 million tons. Non-commercial participants reduced net long positions in MATIF milling wheat and rapeseeds.
On Thursday grain prices continued to fall as US weather maps improved, reducing bullish sentiment. The EU reimposed customs duties on Ukrainian oats due to exceeded quotas. Ukraine may implement a minimum price mechanism for agricultural exports starting in August, raising concerns among traders about potential market disruptions. NOAA forecasted a hot and dry July, but short-term forecasts indicated rain for most of the Corn Belt. Market participants are awaiting the USDA June stocks and US acreage reports, which are expected to be significant.
End of the week, wheat prices attempted to strengthen but ultimately closed down despite stronger-than-expected US weekly export sales. French soft wheat conditions remained stable at 62% good/excellent, though down from 83% last year. Russia announced adjusted grain export duties starting July 1, increasing baseline prices for duty calculations. US weekly export sales totaled 579,000 tons of wheat, 605,000 tons of corn, and 640,000 tons of soybeans, with corn sales disappointing.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
