Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 24-28/06/24
Jul 01, 2024
The week started with wheat and corn prices continuing to decline, with September corn futures hitting new lows and December MATIF milling wheat testing the 230 Euro level. Lower prices attracted buyers, with major importers in the market. IKAR reported Russian wheat FOB prices for July shipment at $231 per ton, down by $3, and hinted at a possible upgrade in the 82 mmt Russian wheat crop forecast. Egypt's GASC and Algeria were active in the wheat market. The EU's JRC MARS lowered its 2024 soft wheat yield projection to 5.86 t/ha, suggesting a 1.2 mmt downward revision, and reduced rapeseed yield estimates slightly. US crop conditions for corn and soybeans fell to 69% and 67% G/E, respectively. The US winter wheat harvest progressed to 40%, with spring wheat conditions dropping to 71% G/E. Funds reduced their net short position in corn but increased shorts in soybeans and Chicago wheat.
Grain prices remained under pressure on Tuesday due to wetter US forecasts and low-priced Russian wheat offers. Jordan purchased 60k tons of milling wheat at $256.35 per ton CnF. GASC booked 470k tons of wheat at an average of $246.61 per ton CnF, with significant price drops in Russian wheat. EU customs data showed soft wheat exports at 29.59 mmt and corn imports at 18.62 mmt. Expectations for Friday's USDA reports included higher June 1 stocks and slight increases in planted areas for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Wheat prices showed some resilience on Wednesday, with MATIF milling wheat outperforming Kansas and Chicago wheat due to a weaker EUR/USD. Algeria purchased 130k-150k tons of soft wheat for the August/October shipment. Ukraine reported 50.3 mmt of grain exports, surpassing the latest USDA estimate for wheat. Non-commercial participants sold MATIF milling wheat heavily and switched to a net short position in rapeseed.
On Thursday, grain prices were mixed, with wheat closing higher due to supportive news, including international tenders and strong US export sales. Saudi Arabia's GFSA issued a tender for 595k tons of wheat for September-December arrival. US weekly export sales were robust for wheat but disappointing for corn and soybeans. Canadian farmers planted 26.64 million acres of wheat, down by 1.1%, while canola acreage exceeded expectations. The European Commission raised its soft wheat production estimates and exports but reduced corn production estimates. The IGC increased its global corn production forecast but reduced the wheat production forecast.
On Friday, the USDA reports were bearish for corn, briefly sending December futures to their lowest levels since October 2020. Corn stocks were 120 mbu above expectations, suggesting harvest pressure. Soybean stocks aligned with expectations, while wheat stocks exceeded the 700 mbu level. Corn acreage was 1.122 million acres higher than expected, while soybean acreage was 0.653 million acres below expectations. All wheat acreage was reduced by 0.258 million acres. French soft wheat rated good/excellent dropped to 60%. Funds increased their net short positions in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
