Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 24-28/06/24
Jul 01, 2024
The week started with wheat and corn prices continuing to decline, with September corn futures hitting new lows and December MATIF milling wheat testing the 230 Euro level. Lower prices attracted buyers, with major importers in the market. IKAR reported Russian wheat FOB prices for July shipment at $231 per ton, down by $3, and hinted at a possible upgrade in the 82 mmt Russian wheat crop forecast. Egypt's GASC and Algeria were active in the wheat market. The EU's JRC MARS lowered its 2024 soft wheat yield projection to 5.86 t/ha, suggesting a 1.2 mmt downward revision, and reduced rapeseed yield estimates slightly. US crop conditions for corn and soybeans fell to 69% and 67% G/E, respectively. The US winter wheat harvest progressed to 40%, with spring wheat conditions dropping to 71% G/E. Funds reduced their net short position in corn but increased shorts in soybeans and Chicago wheat.
Grain prices remained under pressure on Tuesday due to wetter US forecasts and low-priced Russian wheat offers. Jordan purchased 60k tons of milling wheat at $256.35 per ton CnF. GASC booked 470k tons of wheat at an average of $246.61 per ton CnF, with significant price drops in Russian wheat. EU customs data showed soft wheat exports at 29.59 mmt and corn imports at 18.62 mmt. Expectations for Friday's USDA reports included higher June 1 stocks and slight increases in planted areas for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Wheat prices showed some resilience on Wednesday, with MATIF milling wheat outperforming Kansas and Chicago wheat due to a weaker EUR/USD. Algeria purchased 130k-150k tons of soft wheat for the August/October shipment. Ukraine reported 50.3 mmt of grain exports, surpassing the latest USDA estimate for wheat. Non-commercial participants sold MATIF milling wheat heavily and switched to a net short position in rapeseed.
On Thursday, grain prices were mixed, with wheat closing higher due to supportive news, including international tenders and strong US export sales. Saudi Arabia's GFSA issued a tender for 595k tons of wheat for September-December arrival. US weekly export sales were robust for wheat but disappointing for corn and soybeans. Canadian farmers planted 26.64 million acres of wheat, down by 1.1%, while canola acreage exceeded expectations. The European Commission raised its soft wheat production estimates and exports but reduced corn production estimates. The IGC increased its global corn production forecast but reduced the wheat production forecast.
On Friday, the USDA reports were bearish for corn, briefly sending December futures to their lowest levels since October 2020. Corn stocks were 120 mbu above expectations, suggesting harvest pressure. Soybean stocks aligned with expectations, while wheat stocks exceeded the 700 mbu level. Corn acreage was 1.122 million acres higher than expected, while soybean acreage was 0.653 million acres below expectations. All wheat acreage was reduced by 0.258 million acres. French soft wheat rated good/excellent dropped to 60%. Funds increased their net short positions in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat.
Weekly Recaps
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Freight Recap:
05/06/25
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The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
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Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
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Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
