Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 08-12/07/24
Jul 15, 2024
Monday saw a significant downturn for corn, with September futures dropping over 4% to new contract lows, while wheat also closed sharply lower. Funds increased their net short positions in corn by 58.9k contracts, reflecting a lack of concern over crop conditions. USDA’s announcement of a 135.6k-ton corn sale to unknown destinations did little to stem the decline. US weekly export inspections were within expectations, and US corn and soybean condition ratings improved by 1 percentage point each.
Tuesday brought mixed price movements. Oilseeds saw sharp declines, while US corn and wheat futures posted slight gains. The French Farm Ministry projected a significant reduction in the country's soft wheat crop to 29.7 million metric tons (mmt) from last year's 35.1 mmt. EU soft wheat exports were reported at 31.00 million tons for the 2023/24 marketing year. Algeria purchased an undisclosed volume of wheat at $246-253 per ton CnF, while Jordan canceled its tender for 120k tons of milling wheat.
Prices generally declined on Wednesday, except for nearby corn contracts. Market participants were keenly awaiting crop updates from Brazil’s CONAB and the USDA’s updated numbers on Thursday. Non-commercial participants shifted to a net short position in MATIF milling wheat. The USDA reported a private sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Pre-report expectations indicated minor downward adjustments in US corn and soybean yields.
Grains closed in positive territory on Thursday, driven by pre-report positioning despite limited bullish news. FranceAgriMer revised French soft wheat ending stocks for the 2023/24 season upward to 3.89 mmt, while barley stocks were lowered. Brazil’s CONAB raised its corn production estimate to 115.9 mmt. US weekly export sales totaled 240k tons of wheat, 655k tons of corn, and 399k tons of soybeans.
The USDA report released on Friday supported corn prices but pressured wheat. The USDA increased US wheat production by 133 million bushels (mbu), creating a bearish outlook for wheat. For corn, unexpected increases in domestic consumption and exports reduced carryout by 172 mbu. The soybean report was neutral to slightly bearish, with minimal changes in global ending stocks and slight reductions in US production estimates. French soft wheat ratings fell slightly, with the harvest lagging significantly compared to last year.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
