Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 08-12/07/24
Jul 15, 2024
Monday saw a significant downturn for corn, with September futures dropping over 4% to new contract lows, while wheat also closed sharply lower. Funds increased their net short positions in corn by 58.9k contracts, reflecting a lack of concern over crop conditions. USDA’s announcement of a 135.6k-ton corn sale to unknown destinations did little to stem the decline. US weekly export inspections were within expectations, and US corn and soybean condition ratings improved by 1 percentage point each.
Tuesday brought mixed price movements. Oilseeds saw sharp declines, while US corn and wheat futures posted slight gains. The French Farm Ministry projected a significant reduction in the country's soft wheat crop to 29.7 million metric tons (mmt) from last year's 35.1 mmt. EU soft wheat exports were reported at 31.00 million tons for the 2023/24 marketing year. Algeria purchased an undisclosed volume of wheat at $246-253 per ton CnF, while Jordan canceled its tender for 120k tons of milling wheat.
Prices generally declined on Wednesday, except for nearby corn contracts. Market participants were keenly awaiting crop updates from Brazil’s CONAB and the USDA’s updated numbers on Thursday. Non-commercial participants shifted to a net short position in MATIF milling wheat. The USDA reported a private sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Pre-report expectations indicated minor downward adjustments in US corn and soybean yields.
Grains closed in positive territory on Thursday, driven by pre-report positioning despite limited bullish news. FranceAgriMer revised French soft wheat ending stocks for the 2023/24 season upward to 3.89 mmt, while barley stocks were lowered. Brazil’s CONAB raised its corn production estimate to 115.9 mmt. US weekly export sales totaled 240k tons of wheat, 655k tons of corn, and 399k tons of soybeans.
The USDA report released on Friday supported corn prices but pressured wheat. The USDA increased US wheat production by 133 million bushels (mbu), creating a bearish outlook for wheat. For corn, unexpected increases in domestic consumption and exports reduced carryout by 172 mbu. The soybean report was neutral to slightly bearish, with minimal changes in global ending stocks and slight reductions in US production estimates. French soft wheat ratings fell slightly, with the harvest lagging significantly compared to last year.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
