Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 08-12/07/24
Jul 15, 2024
Monday saw a significant downturn for corn, with September futures dropping over 4% to new contract lows, while wheat also closed sharply lower. Funds increased their net short positions in corn by 58.9k contracts, reflecting a lack of concern over crop conditions. USDA’s announcement of a 135.6k-ton corn sale to unknown destinations did little to stem the decline. US weekly export inspections were within expectations, and US corn and soybean condition ratings improved by 1 percentage point each.
Tuesday brought mixed price movements. Oilseeds saw sharp declines, while US corn and wheat futures posted slight gains. The French Farm Ministry projected a significant reduction in the country's soft wheat crop to 29.7 million metric tons (mmt) from last year's 35.1 mmt. EU soft wheat exports were reported at 31.00 million tons for the 2023/24 marketing year. Algeria purchased an undisclosed volume of wheat at $246-253 per ton CnF, while Jordan canceled its tender for 120k tons of milling wheat.
Prices generally declined on Wednesday, except for nearby corn contracts. Market participants were keenly awaiting crop updates from Brazil’s CONAB and the USDA’s updated numbers on Thursday. Non-commercial participants shifted to a net short position in MATIF milling wheat. The USDA reported a private sale of 132k tons of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Pre-report expectations indicated minor downward adjustments in US corn and soybean yields.
Grains closed in positive territory on Thursday, driven by pre-report positioning despite limited bullish news. FranceAgriMer revised French soft wheat ending stocks for the 2023/24 season upward to 3.89 mmt, while barley stocks were lowered. Brazil’s CONAB raised its corn production estimate to 115.9 mmt. US weekly export sales totaled 240k tons of wheat, 655k tons of corn, and 399k tons of soybeans.
The USDA report released on Friday supported corn prices but pressured wheat. The USDA increased US wheat production by 133 million bushels (mbu), creating a bearish outlook for wheat. For corn, unexpected increases in domestic consumption and exports reduced carryout by 172 mbu. The soybean report was neutral to slightly bearish, with minimal changes in global ending stocks and slight reductions in US production estimates. French soft wheat ratings fell slightly, with the harvest lagging significantly compared to last year.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
03/07/25
Jul 03, 2025
The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained mixed.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
