Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 15-19/07/24
Jul 22, 2024
European wheat futures fell to a three-month low on Monday due to large U.S. and Russian harvest expectations and poor French crop prospects. Chicago wheat prices also dropped following a USDA report on higher U.S. production. Corn futures hit record lows amid favorable Midwest weather. Russia's IKAR raised its wheat crop forecast to 83.2 million metric tons. U.S. crop conditions remained stable, with spring wheat at 77% good/excellent.
On Tuesday, CBOT September corn rose slightly as traders took advantage of low prices. Wheat futures continued to decline, pressured by the Northern Hemisphere harvest and cheap Russian wheat. Egypt's GASC bought 770,000 metric tons of wheat, primarily from Russia. Ukraine exported 2.3 million metric tons of agricultural goods, with significant volumes of corn and wheat.
Wednesday saw modest gains in CBOT corn, though favorable Midwest weather capped increases. Wheat prices stabilized with a weaker dollar, and European wheat futures rose due to strong import demand. Algeria's OAIC purchased 770,000 metric tons of milling wheat. Jordan did not buy barley but plans a new tender. Romania reported drought damage to corn and sunflowers, with less impact on wheat.
On Thursday, Central and Northern European wheat markets paused as harvests began, with lower protein levels but higher yields. The Black Sea region sold 1.6 million metric tons of wheat for August and September. Tunisia announced a tender for 100,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. The International Grains Council raised its global grains production forecast, though stocks are expected to fall.
European wheat futures rose 4% on Friday due to poor French crop conditions. Ukraine's harvest reached 13.8 million metric tons, with significant wheat volumes. Tunisia likely purchased 100,000 metric tons of feed barley. CFTC-CBOT data showed a reduction in wheat speculators' short positions. Russia's IKAR revised its grain harvest forecast down to 128 million tons, with expected drops in barley and corn production.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/3/25 AGRI
Mar 17, 2025
U.S. wheat futures opened the week on a strong note, led by Kansas wheat, as traders reacted to deteriorating crop conditions in key HRW states. The rally coincided with Algeria’s milling wheat tender, though MATIF wheat showed a more hesitant response. Meanwhile, soybeans faced pressure as China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods took effect. Export inspections indicated solid corn shipments but disappointing wheat figures. India projected record wheat production at 115.3 million metric tons, signaling ample supply ahead.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/03/25
Mar 13, 2025
The Panamax market saw further gains, supported by increased Atlantic activity, particularly in trans-Atlantic business from the U.S. Fresh cargo flows and tightening vessel availability contributed to sizable rate improvements. In South America, activity picked up for March and April positions, reinforcing positive sentiment. Owners met improved bids with some resistance, further bolstering rates. While uncertainty persists regarding U.S. trade policy impacts, the expected second grain wave from ECSA added to market optimism.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
3-7/3/25 AGRI
Mar 11, 2025
The week opened with a continuation of last week’s bearish trend, as grain markets faced significant headwinds. Wheat was particularly weak due to an upward revision in Australia’s crop estimate. Market sentiment deteriorated further on confirmation that the U.S. has implemented tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada—25% on Canada and Mexico, and 20% on China. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on key U.S. agricultural imports, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, effective March 10. Canada followed with 25% tariffs on U.S. goods worth $155 billion. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices declined by $3 per ton to $248 FOB, adding to the bearish tone. Australian production estimates surged, with wheat up to 34.1 MMT (+31% y/y) and barley to 13.3 MMT (+23% y/y). Weekly U.S. export inspections showed solid corn movement at 1.35 MMT, while the USDA confirmed a 114k-ton corn sale to Mexico.
