Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/08/24
Aug 19, 2024
On Monday the USDA report projected record yields for U.S. corn and soybeans, exceeding previous highs by 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively. This pressured soybean prices while corn found some support. Average US farm price forecasts were down sharply across the board: corn (-10% y/y), soybeans (-14% y/y), and wheat (-18% y/y). Egypt’s GASC wheat tender fell short, securing only 280,000 tons out of a targeted 3.8 million.
Soybeans continued their decline on Tuesday, with corn and wheat also closing lower. Brazil’s CONAB slightly adjusted its crop estimates, cutting corn production to 115.65 mmt while raising soybeans to 147.38 mmt. Despite bearish sentiment, the USDA reported steady flash sales, signaling that lower prices may be attracting demand. GASC began direct negotiations for more wheat, likely from Russia, after its disappointing tender.
Wednesday MATIF wheat futures fell below €220/ton, pressured by aggressive Black Sea exports and currency effects. Corn and soybeans saw modest rebounds, supported by bargain buying. Reports of a Russian attack on Odessa port briefly lifted wheat but gains were limited as Black Sea supplies remained plentiful. The strong euro kept European wheat under pressure.
Thursday Wheat prices slipped again after an early rally faded, reflecting the market’s reluctance to sustain gains on geopolitical headlines. Corn and soybeans also struggled, with attention turning to next week’s ProFarmer crop tour, expected to confirm strong U.S. yield prospects. Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange raised its corn estimate to 49 mmt, while Argentina’s wheat production outlook remained robust at 20.5 mmt, supported by favorable rainfall.
End of the week wheat futures rebounded, led by MATIF, after Thursday’s sharp drop. CBOT wheat posted modest gains, while corn and soybeans hit new lows as favorable U.S. rains bolstered yield prospects. The U.S. crop tour begins next week, with daily updates expected to guide market sentiment. French wheat harvest reached 98% completion, and Germany cut its wheat crop forecast further due to dry weather, reducing production estimates to 18.76 mmt.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
