Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/08/24
Aug 19, 2024
On Monday the USDA report projected record yields for U.S. corn and soybeans, exceeding previous highs by 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively. This pressured soybean prices while corn found some support. Average US farm price forecasts were down sharply across the board: corn (-10% y/y), soybeans (-14% y/y), and wheat (-18% y/y). Egypt’s GASC wheat tender fell short, securing only 280,000 tons out of a targeted 3.8 million.
Soybeans continued their decline on Tuesday, with corn and wheat also closing lower. Brazil’s CONAB slightly adjusted its crop estimates, cutting corn production to 115.65 mmt while raising soybeans to 147.38 mmt. Despite bearish sentiment, the USDA reported steady flash sales, signaling that lower prices may be attracting demand. GASC began direct negotiations for more wheat, likely from Russia, after its disappointing tender.
Wednesday MATIF wheat futures fell below €220/ton, pressured by aggressive Black Sea exports and currency effects. Corn and soybeans saw modest rebounds, supported by bargain buying. Reports of a Russian attack on Odessa port briefly lifted wheat but gains were limited as Black Sea supplies remained plentiful. The strong euro kept European wheat under pressure.
Thursday Wheat prices slipped again after an early rally faded, reflecting the market’s reluctance to sustain gains on geopolitical headlines. Corn and soybeans also struggled, with attention turning to next week’s ProFarmer crop tour, expected to confirm strong U.S. yield prospects. Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange raised its corn estimate to 49 mmt, while Argentina’s wheat production outlook remained robust at 20.5 mmt, supported by favorable rainfall.
End of the week wheat futures rebounded, led by MATIF, after Thursday’s sharp drop. CBOT wheat posted modest gains, while corn and soybeans hit new lows as favorable U.S. rains bolstered yield prospects. The U.S. crop tour begins next week, with daily updates expected to guide market sentiment. French wheat harvest reached 98% completion, and Germany cut its wheat crop forecast further due to dry weather, reducing production estimates to 18.76 mmt.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of plateauing this week, with reduced spot activity prompting concerns of near-term softening. North Atlantic visibility remained limited, with owners and charterers continuing to disagree on rate expectations, leading to a widening bid-offer gap.
