Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/08/24
Aug 19, 2024
On Monday the USDA report projected record yields for U.S. corn and soybeans, exceeding previous highs by 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively. This pressured soybean prices while corn found some support. Average US farm price forecasts were down sharply across the board: corn (-10% y/y), soybeans (-14% y/y), and wheat (-18% y/y). Egypt’s GASC wheat tender fell short, securing only 280,000 tons out of a targeted 3.8 million.
Soybeans continued their decline on Tuesday, with corn and wheat also closing lower. Brazil’s CONAB slightly adjusted its crop estimates, cutting corn production to 115.65 mmt while raising soybeans to 147.38 mmt. Despite bearish sentiment, the USDA reported steady flash sales, signaling that lower prices may be attracting demand. GASC began direct negotiations for more wheat, likely from Russia, after its disappointing tender.
Wednesday MATIF wheat futures fell below €220/ton, pressured by aggressive Black Sea exports and currency effects. Corn and soybeans saw modest rebounds, supported by bargain buying. Reports of a Russian attack on Odessa port briefly lifted wheat but gains were limited as Black Sea supplies remained plentiful. The strong euro kept European wheat under pressure.
Thursday Wheat prices slipped again after an early rally faded, reflecting the market’s reluctance to sustain gains on geopolitical headlines. Corn and soybeans also struggled, with attention turning to next week’s ProFarmer crop tour, expected to confirm strong U.S. yield prospects. Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange raised its corn estimate to 49 mmt, while Argentina’s wheat production outlook remained robust at 20.5 mmt, supported by favorable rainfall.
End of the week wheat futures rebounded, led by MATIF, after Thursday’s sharp drop. CBOT wheat posted modest gains, while corn and soybeans hit new lows as favorable U.S. rains bolstered yield prospects. The U.S. crop tour begins next week, with daily updates expected to guide market sentiment. French wheat harvest reached 98% completion, and Germany cut its wheat crop forecast further due to dry weather, reducing production estimates to 18.76 mmt.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
