Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 19-23/08/24
Aug 26, 2024
On Monday Grain markets opened the week with mixed results. Corn and soybeans recovered from oversold levels, aided by solid U.S. export data and private sales, including 332,000 tons of soybeans to China. However, December MATIF wheat futures fell to new lows due to a stronger Euro and increased Russian wheat exports, which saw prices drop to $218 per ton FOB. Egypt's Supply Minister reaffirmed plans to secure 3.8 million tonnes of wheat by year-end.
On Tuesday Wheat futures continued to struggle amid a stronger Euro. U.S. wheat futures saw modest gains, while corn and soybean prices dipped slightly. Russia maintained its grain harvest forecast, though SovEcon increased their wheat production estimate. Tunisia issued a tender for 75,000 tons of soft wheat, and Jordan canceled its wheat tender. The USDA reported private soybean sales of 132,000 tons to China and 239,500 tons to Mexico. Pro Farmer Crop Tour results showed slight increases in Indiana and Nebraska corn yields but fell short of USDA projections.
Middle of the week, Wheat futures dropped over 2%, while corn prices held steady and soybeans gained. A potential Canadian rail strike created market uncertainty. In India, high wheat prices led to calls for government intervention and the removal of import taxes. Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of soft wheat at prices between $242.99 and $246.00 per ton. Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported Illinois corn yields up 5.4% year-over-year, with mixed results in Iowa. Non-commercial traders’ short positions in MATIF milling wheat exceeded 100,000 contracts.
On Thursday, Grain prices fell, with wheat futures hitting new lows. U.S. export sales were robust, including 493,000 tons of wheat, 1.41 million tons of corn, and 1.63 million tons of soybeans. Jordan issued new tenders for wheat and barley. Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported a decrease in Minnesota corn yields to 164.9 bu/a, while Iowa yields matched USDA expectations at 192.79 bu/a (considering historical differences). The market awaited further Fed commentary from Jackson Hole.
End of the week, Soybean prices rose, supported by strong export sales and higher energy markets. Corn and wheat prices reached new lows. Pro Farmer estimated a national corn yield of 181.1 bu/a, below USDA’s forecast, and a soybean yield of 54.9 bu/a, above USDA’s estimate. The USDA reported a private sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans. Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech suggested imminent rate cuts, strengthening the EUR/USD. Funds reduced their net short positions in CBOT wheat but increased short positions in corn and soybeans.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
