Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/02/24
Feb 19, 2024
The grain markets opened the week hesitant, but a swift and chilling wind quickly turned the tide towards bearishness. Various factors drove this week's story, contributing to pessimism and falling prices.
At the heart of the storm lay the USDA Outlook Forum, its forecasts for the 2024/2025 season casting a long shadow. Visions of record corn yields and bulging ending stocks for all significant grains dampened any flickering hopes for price increases despite slightly lower projected corn plantings than the previous year. Wheat, too, was painted with the same brush of oversupply, with estimates pointing towards increased production and carryover stocks.
Beyond the US borders, global supply expectations further fueled the bearish fire. Russia upped its wheat export quota, while analysts chimed in with raised production forecasts, hinting at a potential glut. Even Ukraine was surprised, reporting a meagre winter wheat kill rate, suggesting potential for future export growth.
The week witnessed its share of symbolic lows, with MATIF milling wheat dipping below €200 for the first time since July 2021 and CBOT wheat and corn testing new contract lows on Friday. The mood mirrored the actions of financial players, with funds actively building short positions, particularly in corn, a clear indication of their bearish bets.
As we look ahead, US markets remain closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, potentially leading to slower trading in MATIF due to the holiday. Developments in the Red Sea and weather conditions in key producing regions will continue to be closely monitored, and their influence on export flows and crop prospects holds the potential to shape the market narrative further.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
03/07/25
Jul 03, 2025
The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained mixed.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
