Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/02/24
Feb 19, 2024
The grain markets opened the week hesitant, but a swift and chilling wind quickly turned the tide towards bearishness. Various factors drove this week's story, contributing to pessimism and falling prices.
At the heart of the storm lay the USDA Outlook Forum, its forecasts for the 2024/2025 season casting a long shadow. Visions of record corn yields and bulging ending stocks for all significant grains dampened any flickering hopes for price increases despite slightly lower projected corn plantings than the previous year. Wheat, too, was painted with the same brush of oversupply, with estimates pointing towards increased production and carryover stocks.
Beyond the US borders, global supply expectations further fueled the bearish fire. Russia upped its wheat export quota, while analysts chimed in with raised production forecasts, hinting at a potential glut. Even Ukraine was surprised, reporting a meagre winter wheat kill rate, suggesting potential for future export growth.
The week witnessed its share of symbolic lows, with MATIF milling wheat dipping below €200 for the first time since July 2021 and CBOT wheat and corn testing new contract lows on Friday. The mood mirrored the actions of financial players, with funds actively building short positions, particularly in corn, a clear indication of their bearish bets.
As we look ahead, US markets remain closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, potentially leading to slower trading in MATIF due to the holiday. Developments in the Red Sea and weather conditions in key producing regions will continue to be closely monitored, and their influence on export flows and crop prospects holds the potential to shape the market narrative further.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
Freight
Freight Recap:
06/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
