Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/02/24
Feb 19, 2024
The grain markets opened the week hesitant, but a swift and chilling wind quickly turned the tide towards bearishness. Various factors drove this week's story, contributing to pessimism and falling prices.
At the heart of the storm lay the USDA Outlook Forum, its forecasts for the 2024/2025 season casting a long shadow. Visions of record corn yields and bulging ending stocks for all significant grains dampened any flickering hopes for price increases despite slightly lower projected corn plantings than the previous year. Wheat, too, was painted with the same brush of oversupply, with estimates pointing towards increased production and carryover stocks.
Beyond the US borders, global supply expectations further fueled the bearish fire. Russia upped its wheat export quota, while analysts chimed in with raised production forecasts, hinting at a potential glut. Even Ukraine was surprised, reporting a meagre winter wheat kill rate, suggesting potential for future export growth.
The week witnessed its share of symbolic lows, with MATIF milling wheat dipping below €200 for the first time since July 2021 and CBOT wheat and corn testing new contract lows on Friday. The mood mirrored the actions of financial players, with funds actively building short positions, particularly in corn, a clear indication of their bearish bets.
As we look ahead, US markets remain closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, potentially leading to slower trading in MATIF due to the holiday. Developments in the Red Sea and weather conditions in key producing regions will continue to be closely monitored, and their influence on export flows and crop prospects holds the potential to shape the market narrative further.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
