Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 12-16/02/24
Feb 19, 2024
The grain markets opened the week hesitant, but a swift and chilling wind quickly turned the tide towards bearishness. Various factors drove this week's story, contributing to pessimism and falling prices.
At the heart of the storm lay the USDA Outlook Forum, its forecasts for the 2024/2025 season casting a long shadow. Visions of record corn yields and bulging ending stocks for all significant grains dampened any flickering hopes for price increases despite slightly lower projected corn plantings than the previous year. Wheat, too, was painted with the same brush of oversupply, with estimates pointing towards increased production and carryover stocks.
Beyond the US borders, global supply expectations further fueled the bearish fire. Russia upped its wheat export quota, while analysts chimed in with raised production forecasts, hinting at a potential glut. Even Ukraine was surprised, reporting a meagre winter wheat kill rate, suggesting potential for future export growth.
The week witnessed its share of symbolic lows, with MATIF milling wheat dipping below €200 for the first time since July 2021 and CBOT wheat and corn testing new contract lows on Friday. The mood mirrored the actions of financial players, with funds actively building short positions, particularly in corn, a clear indication of their bearish bets.
As we look ahead, US markets remain closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, potentially leading to slower trading in MATIF due to the holiday. Developments in the Red Sea and weather conditions in key producing regions will continue to be closely monitored, and their influence on export flows and crop prospects holds the potential to shape the market narrative further.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
