Agri- Commodities: 16-20/09/24
Sep 23, 2024
Monday, wheat prices fell sharply, erasing Friday’s gains as traders took profits amid easing tensions between Russia and NATO. IKAR raised Russian wheat prices slightly to $216/ton FOB for October shipments. In Canada, wheat production was revised to 34.3 mmt, slightly lower than previous estimates but still up year-over-year.
U.S. weekly export inspections showed solid wheat volumes, but corn and soybean figures underperformed. U.S. corn crop conditions improved to 65% good/excellent, while soybeans dipped to 64%. Harvest progress was ahead of the 5-year average, with 9% of corn and 6% of soybeans harvested.
On Tuesday the wheat prices continued to decline, while oilseeds gained on stronger energy markets. France’s soft wheat crop estimate was lowered to 25.8 mmt, while maize production was increased to 14.4 mmt. Ukraine’s wheat and rapeseed exports were strong, but corn exports lagged.
SovEcon raised Russia’s 2024/25 wheat forecast to 82.9 mmt. Brazil’s first estimates for 2024/25 projected a strong 119.8 mmt corn crop and a record 166.3 mmt soybean crop. Traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which added to market uncertainty.
Middle of the week, wheat and corn prices remained flat in a choppy session following the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut. France AgriMer reduced soft wheat export forecasts to EU and third countries, reflecting weaker demand. Tunisia tendered for 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum.
Non-commercial traders trimmed net short positions in MATIF wheat, while futures prices made minor gains. The Fed’s move suggested further rate cuts could follow as inflation nears target.
On Thursday the wheat futures dropped sharply due to weak U.S. export sales, while grain markets overall closed lower. The International Grains Council cut its global corn production estimate to 1,224 mmt and wheat to 798 mmt for 2024/25.
Tunisia secured 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum wheat. U.S. export sales were robust for soybeans (1.76 mmt) but disappointing for wheat (258k tons), pressuring U.S. wheat futures.
End of the week, corn and soybeans eased as the U.S. harvest progressed. Wheat prices on CBOT and MATIF saw minor gains but closed below session highs.
Weather concerns in Argentina and Australia persisted, threatening wheat crop yields. Argentina reported potential area losses, while Western Australia’s wheat yield potential weakened due to dry conditions. Funds trimmed their net short positions in soybeans and wheat, while adding slightly to corn shorts.
Weekly Recaps
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Freight Recap:
17/07/25
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Shipping markets confront growing disruption amid unexplained Russian bank freezes and impending US trade tariffs, complicating payments and trade between key regions.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
07–11/07/25 Agri
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Grain markets fell on favorable U.S. weather and better crop ratings. Corn dropped to a one-week low; wheat declined as harvest reached 53%. Soybeans were steady, supported by strong export demand and positioning ahead of pollination. USDA data showed higher corn and soybean export inspections, including firm soybean export demand. New corn sales to Mexico and a wheat agreement with Indonesia also added to the day’s developments. Market watched updated crop ratings, fund moves, tariffs, and EU trade data.
Freight
Freight Recap:
10/07/25
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Shipping markets continue to face growing security risks. Two alarming incidents were reported in the Red Sea, where a Greek-operated bulk carrier was seriously damaged by a sea drone attack, resulting in injuries and crew missing.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
30–04/07/25 Agri
Jul 07, 2025
The week began with growing consensus that the USDA’s upcoming acreage revisions will have minimal impact on U.S. corn and soybean supply estimates. This outlook kept prices largely steady in those markets. Wheat continued to face pressure, with September and December MATIF milling wheat futures falling to new contract lows before recovering slightly, supported only by the lack of fresh bearish information from the USDA.
