Agri- Commodities: 16-20/09/24
Sep 23, 2024
Monday, wheat prices fell sharply, erasing Friday’s gains as traders took profits amid easing tensions between Russia and NATO. IKAR raised Russian wheat prices slightly to $216/ton FOB for October shipments. In Canada, wheat production was revised to 34.3 mmt, slightly lower than previous estimates but still up year-over-year.
U.S. weekly export inspections showed solid wheat volumes, but corn and soybean figures underperformed. U.S. corn crop conditions improved to 65% good/excellent, while soybeans dipped to 64%. Harvest progress was ahead of the 5-year average, with 9% of corn and 6% of soybeans harvested.
On Tuesday the wheat prices continued to decline, while oilseeds gained on stronger energy markets. France’s soft wheat crop estimate was lowered to 25.8 mmt, while maize production was increased to 14.4 mmt. Ukraine’s wheat and rapeseed exports were strong, but corn exports lagged.
SovEcon raised Russia’s 2024/25 wheat forecast to 82.9 mmt. Brazil’s first estimates for 2024/25 projected a strong 119.8 mmt corn crop and a record 166.3 mmt soybean crop. Traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which added to market uncertainty.
Middle of the week, wheat and corn prices remained flat in a choppy session following the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut. France AgriMer reduced soft wheat export forecasts to EU and third countries, reflecting weaker demand. Tunisia tendered for 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum.
Non-commercial traders trimmed net short positions in MATIF wheat, while futures prices made minor gains. The Fed’s move suggested further rate cuts could follow as inflation nears target.
On Thursday the wheat futures dropped sharply due to weak U.S. export sales, while grain markets overall closed lower. The International Grains Council cut its global corn production estimate to 1,224 mmt and wheat to 798 mmt for 2024/25.
Tunisia secured 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum wheat. U.S. export sales were robust for soybeans (1.76 mmt) but disappointing for wheat (258k tons), pressuring U.S. wheat futures.
End of the week, corn and soybeans eased as the U.S. harvest progressed. Wheat prices on CBOT and MATIF saw minor gains but closed below session highs.
Weather concerns in Argentina and Australia persisted, threatening wheat crop yields. Argentina reported potential area losses, while Western Australia’s wheat yield potential weakened due to dry conditions. Funds trimmed their net short positions in soybeans and wheat, while adding slightly to corn shorts.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
