Agri- Commodities: 23-27/09/24
Sep 30, 2024
Grain markets began the week with a strong rally, as prices jumped by 2% to 3%, driven by multiple factors. A dry weather forecast for Brazil, coupled with potential Chinese economic stimulus measures, fueled this upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) reduced its forecast for Russia's wheat production to 81.8 million metric tons (mmt). In the U.S., export inspections for both corn and wheat exceeded expectations, further boosting prices.
On Tuesday, the rally lost steam, with corn and wheat prices retreating by the end of the session. Soybeans, which had initially gained, also closed lower as concerns about Brazilian weather persisted.
The market was further impacted by a strike at Metro Vancouver grain terminals, which disrupted the flow of 100,000 tons of grain daily, raising alarms about Canadian export disruptions. Additionally, former U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about renegotiating trade deals with China added a new layer of uncertainty to the markets.
Wednesday brought a recovery, particularly in soybeans, which remained volatile due to weather concerns. Wheat prices also rose on reports of slow planting progress in Russia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions as Russia escalated nuclear rhetoric.
Traders began positioning ahead of the USDA’s quarterly stocks and small grains report, which heightened market nervousness as potential revisions in corn and soybean stocks could significantly impact future supply-demand balances.
Thursday saw choppy trading, with MATIF wheat closing positively. In Australia, frost damaged over 1.2 million hectares of wheat, threatening output reductions. On the geopolitical front, Russia's plans to expand Baltic Sea export routes highlighted logistical challenges from the Ukraine conflict. U.S. export sales showed strong soybean demand but disappointing corn and wheat figures.
Soybean prices finished the week strongly, driven by weather concerns and pre-USDA report positioning. However, wheat prices weakened, and funds cut their net shorts in soybeans to their lowest level in four months. Traders now await USDA data for clarity on future market direction.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/09/25 Agri
Sep 15, 2025
The week opened with wheat leading a modest rally, Kansas futures gaining more than 2% in what appeared to be an overdue correction in an oversold market. Chicago and MATIF contracts followed with smaller advances, while corn and soybeans also firmed ahead of the US crop progress update and Friday’s WASDE. Despite the bounce, trading volumes suggested short liquidation in wheat had not yet begun in earnest. Sovecon raised its 2025 Russian wheat forecast to 86.1 mmt, broadly matching IKAR, while US crop ratings slipped only marginally. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans steady but wheat sharply lower.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/09/25
Sep 11, 2025
The dry bulk freight market maintained a firm tone this week, with Handysize, Supramax, and Panamax indices all showing gains.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-04/09/25 Agri
Sep 08, 2025
Grain markets remained under pressure last week, with wheat leading losses as both C-B-O-T and MATIF contracts hit fresh multi-year lows on ample global supply and weak demand. Corn was more resilient, briefly reaching a six-week high before retreating as short covering faded, while soybeans slid throughout the week on poor export demand and the continued absence of Chinese buying. Broader financial market weakness added to bearish sentiment, and traders now look ahead to key macro events — U.S. inflation data, the ECB rate decision, and Friday’s USDA WASDE report.
