Agri- Commodities: 23-27/09/24
Sep 30, 2024
Grain markets began the week with a strong rally, as prices jumped by 2% to 3%, driven by multiple factors. A dry weather forecast for Brazil, coupled with potential Chinese economic stimulus measures, fueled this upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) reduced its forecast for Russia's wheat production to 81.8 million metric tons (mmt). In the U.S., export inspections for both corn and wheat exceeded expectations, further boosting prices.
On Tuesday, the rally lost steam, with corn and wheat prices retreating by the end of the session. Soybeans, which had initially gained, also closed lower as concerns about Brazilian weather persisted.
The market was further impacted by a strike at Metro Vancouver grain terminals, which disrupted the flow of 100,000 tons of grain daily, raising alarms about Canadian export disruptions. Additionally, former U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about renegotiating trade deals with China added a new layer of uncertainty to the markets.
Wednesday brought a recovery, particularly in soybeans, which remained volatile due to weather concerns. Wheat prices also rose on reports of slow planting progress in Russia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions as Russia escalated nuclear rhetoric.
Traders began positioning ahead of the USDA’s quarterly stocks and small grains report, which heightened market nervousness as potential revisions in corn and soybean stocks could significantly impact future supply-demand balances.
Thursday saw choppy trading, with MATIF wheat closing positively. In Australia, frost damaged over 1.2 million hectares of wheat, threatening output reductions. On the geopolitical front, Russia's plans to expand Baltic Sea export routes highlighted logistical challenges from the Ukraine conflict. U.S. export sales showed strong soybean demand but disappointing corn and wheat figures.
Soybean prices finished the week strongly, driven by weather concerns and pre-USDA report positioning. However, wheat prices weakened, and funds cut their net shorts in soybeans to their lowest level in four months. Traders now await USDA data for clarity on future market direction.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of plateauing this week, with reduced spot activity prompting concerns of near-term softening. North Atlantic visibility remained limited, with owners and charterers continuing to disagree on rate expectations, leading to a widening bid-offer gap.
