Agri- Commodities: 23-27/09/24
Sep 30, 2024
Grain markets began the week with a strong rally, as prices jumped by 2% to 3%, driven by multiple factors. A dry weather forecast for Brazil, coupled with potential Chinese economic stimulus measures, fueled this upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) reduced its forecast for Russia's wheat production to 81.8 million metric tons (mmt). In the U.S., export inspections for both corn and wheat exceeded expectations, further boosting prices.
On Tuesday, the rally lost steam, with corn and wheat prices retreating by the end of the session. Soybeans, which had initially gained, also closed lower as concerns about Brazilian weather persisted.
The market was further impacted by a strike at Metro Vancouver grain terminals, which disrupted the flow of 100,000 tons of grain daily, raising alarms about Canadian export disruptions. Additionally, former U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about renegotiating trade deals with China added a new layer of uncertainty to the markets.
Wednesday brought a recovery, particularly in soybeans, which remained volatile due to weather concerns. Wheat prices also rose on reports of slow planting progress in Russia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions as Russia escalated nuclear rhetoric.
Traders began positioning ahead of the USDA’s quarterly stocks and small grains report, which heightened market nervousness as potential revisions in corn and soybean stocks could significantly impact future supply-demand balances.
Thursday saw choppy trading, with MATIF wheat closing positively. In Australia, frost damaged over 1.2 million hectares of wheat, threatening output reductions. On the geopolitical front, Russia's plans to expand Baltic Sea export routes highlighted logistical challenges from the Ukraine conflict. U.S. export sales showed strong soybean demand but disappointing corn and wheat figures.
Soybean prices finished the week strongly, driven by weather concerns and pre-USDA report positioning. However, wheat prices weakened, and funds cut their net shorts in soybeans to their lowest level in four months. Traders now await USDA data for clarity on future market direction.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
17-21/11/25 Agri
Nov 24, 2025
The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.
Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.
