Agri- Commodities: 23-27/09/24
Sep 30, 2024
Grain markets began the week with a strong rally, as prices jumped by 2% to 3%, driven by multiple factors. A dry weather forecast for Brazil, coupled with potential Chinese economic stimulus measures, fueled this upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) reduced its forecast for Russia's wheat production to 81.8 million metric tons (mmt). In the U.S., export inspections for both corn and wheat exceeded expectations, further boosting prices.
On Tuesday, the rally lost steam, with corn and wheat prices retreating by the end of the session. Soybeans, which had initially gained, also closed lower as concerns about Brazilian weather persisted.
The market was further impacted by a strike at Metro Vancouver grain terminals, which disrupted the flow of 100,000 tons of grain daily, raising alarms about Canadian export disruptions. Additionally, former U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about renegotiating trade deals with China added a new layer of uncertainty to the markets.
Wednesday brought a recovery, particularly in soybeans, which remained volatile due to weather concerns. Wheat prices also rose on reports of slow planting progress in Russia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions as Russia escalated nuclear rhetoric.
Traders began positioning ahead of the USDA’s quarterly stocks and small grains report, which heightened market nervousness as potential revisions in corn and soybean stocks could significantly impact future supply-demand balances.
Thursday saw choppy trading, with MATIF wheat closing positively. In Australia, frost damaged over 1.2 million hectares of wheat, threatening output reductions. On the geopolitical front, Russia's plans to expand Baltic Sea export routes highlighted logistical challenges from the Ukraine conflict. U.S. export sales showed strong soybean demand but disappointing corn and wheat figures.
Soybean prices finished the week strongly, driven by weather concerns and pre-USDA report positioning. However, wheat prices weakened, and funds cut their net shorts in soybeans to their lowest level in four months. Traders now await USDA data for clarity on future market direction.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
