Agri- Commodities: 7/10/2024 - 11/10/24
Oct 14, 2024
The week began quietly despite geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East, which led to higher wheat prices on CBOT. MATIF milling wheat eased in nearby contracts, while deferred months posted gains. Soybean prices softened due to rapid U.S. harvest progress. Russia's aggressive actions in the Black Sea targeted foreign grain vessels, contributing to rising Russian wheat prices, which hit $223 per ton (12.5% protein) FOB for November shipments. On the global demand front, Saudi Arabia purchased 307k tons of wheat, and Bangladesh issued a tender for 50k tons of milling wheat. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections revealed a surge in soybean shipments, but wheat and corn inspections declined. Harvest progress showed U.S. farmers prioritizing soybeans over corn.
Oilseed prices took a hit on Tuesday as the U.S. soybean harvest exceeded expectations and oil prices plunged due to disappointment over China’s lack of economic stimulus. Corn followed this downward trend, while wheat prices stayed resilient, buoyed by international demand. Algeria’s tender purchases were estimated at 500-550k tons of wheat at around $262.50/ton, with no French wheat involved due to ongoing diplomatic tensions. On the other hand, the EU's soft wheat exports continued to lag last year's pace, and Tunisia bought 125k tons of feed barley. The USDA reported a private sale of 166k tons of soybeans to China, yet this failed to stop the broader soybean decline. On Wednesday wheat prices on MATIF initially surged following reports of potential Russian export restrictions but reversed course as those concerns eased later in the day. Russia’s Agriculture Ministry scheduled a meeting to discuss limiting wheat exports due to lower production. However, reports confirmed that Algeria had bought Russian wheat, offsetting fears of immediate shortages. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reduced its wheat production estimate to 19.5 mmt. Anticipation grew for Thursday’s USDA report, with traders expecting lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and potentially smaller world corn and wheat stocks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's wheat exports continued to recover, reaching 6.6 mmt by October 9, surpassing last year’s levels.
On Thursday the wheat prices climbed ahead of Friday's talks in Russia regarding potential export restrictions. Meanwhile, corn and soybean prices slipped despite rising energy costs. Turkey introduced a 1 mmt corn import quota, and official Russia’s wheat crop estimate was lowered to 83 mmt, aligning with USDA forecasts. Ukraine faced escalating attacks on its grain export infrastructure, driving war insurance premiums higher by 30%. U.S. export sales for corn, wheat, and soybeans were reported within expected ranges, offering little excitement. A weak La Niña was also forecast, expected to last through early 2025.
Grain markets closed the week in the red as the USDA report failed to deliver significant surprises. Russian export news turned out less severe than anticipated, with Moscow instructing exporters to avoid selling wheat below $250 FOB in international tenders, while export duties rose by $5-6 per ton—a routine adjustment. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production estimate to 81.5 mmt for 2024/25. The USDA raised U.S. corn yield estimates, projecting the second-largest crop on record. In France, harvest progress for grain maize lagged significantly behind last year, while the sowing of soft wheat and winter barley was also delayed. The report also highlighted continued short-covering by funds in corn and soybeans.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
