Agri- Commodities: 7/10/2024 - 11/10/24
Oct 14, 2024
The week began quietly despite geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East, which led to higher wheat prices on CBOT. MATIF milling wheat eased in nearby contracts, while deferred months posted gains. Soybean prices softened due to rapid U.S. harvest progress. Russia's aggressive actions in the Black Sea targeted foreign grain vessels, contributing to rising Russian wheat prices, which hit $223 per ton (12.5% protein) FOB for November shipments. On the global demand front, Saudi Arabia purchased 307k tons of wheat, and Bangladesh issued a tender for 50k tons of milling wheat. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections revealed a surge in soybean shipments, but wheat and corn inspections declined. Harvest progress showed U.S. farmers prioritizing soybeans over corn.
Oilseed prices took a hit on Tuesday as the U.S. soybean harvest exceeded expectations and oil prices plunged due to disappointment over China’s lack of economic stimulus. Corn followed this downward trend, while wheat prices stayed resilient, buoyed by international demand. Algeria’s tender purchases were estimated at 500-550k tons of wheat at around $262.50/ton, with no French wheat involved due to ongoing diplomatic tensions. On the other hand, the EU's soft wheat exports continued to lag last year's pace, and Tunisia bought 125k tons of feed barley. The USDA reported a private sale of 166k tons of soybeans to China, yet this failed to stop the broader soybean decline. On Wednesday wheat prices on MATIF initially surged following reports of potential Russian export restrictions but reversed course as those concerns eased later in the day. Russia’s Agriculture Ministry scheduled a meeting to discuss limiting wheat exports due to lower production. However, reports confirmed that Algeria had bought Russian wheat, offsetting fears of immediate shortages. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reduced its wheat production estimate to 19.5 mmt. Anticipation grew for Thursday’s USDA report, with traders expecting lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and potentially smaller world corn and wheat stocks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's wheat exports continued to recover, reaching 6.6 mmt by October 9, surpassing last year’s levels.
On Thursday the wheat prices climbed ahead of Friday's talks in Russia regarding potential export restrictions. Meanwhile, corn and soybean prices slipped despite rising energy costs. Turkey introduced a 1 mmt corn import quota, and official Russia’s wheat crop estimate was lowered to 83 mmt, aligning with USDA forecasts. Ukraine faced escalating attacks on its grain export infrastructure, driving war insurance premiums higher by 30%. U.S. export sales for corn, wheat, and soybeans were reported within expected ranges, offering little excitement. A weak La Niña was also forecast, expected to last through early 2025.
Grain markets closed the week in the red as the USDA report failed to deliver significant surprises. Russian export news turned out less severe than anticipated, with Moscow instructing exporters to avoid selling wheat below $250 FOB in international tenders, while export duties rose by $5-6 per ton—a routine adjustment. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production estimate to 81.5 mmt for 2024/25. The USDA raised U.S. corn yield estimates, projecting the second-largest crop on record. In France, harvest progress for grain maize lagged significantly behind last year, while the sowing of soft wheat and winter barley was also delayed. The report also highlighted continued short-covering by funds in corn and soybeans.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/04/25
Apr 18, 2025
The Atlantic market saw further pressure with rates declining across most routes. Despite some vessel movement toward South America on hopes of stronger grain activity, this has not translated into stronger sentiment. The region remains oversupplied, and charterers continue to dictate terms, keeping offers low and confidence weak.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
7/4- 11/4/25 Agri
Apr 15, 2025
Grain markets began the week relatively stable, despite heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets. The threat of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China remained a significant concern, as President Trump proposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports. In the grain markets, U.S. export inspections for soybeans and corn were strong, while wheat inspections fell short of expectations.
Freight
Freight Recap:
10/04/25
Apr 10, 2025
Atlantic: The market remained under pressure with falling rates driven by oversupply and limited fresh demand. While some activity was seen out of South America, it wasn’t enough to shift sentiment. Charterers maintained control, and offers remained far apart from bids, especially on transatlantic routes. Overall, market participants remained cautious, with attention also diverted by global financial uncertainty.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
31/3- 4/4/25 Agri
Apr 07, 2025
Grain markets kicked off the week digesting the USDA’s planting intentions report, which offered mild support to wheat and modest pressure on corn. However, corn still managed to finish higher for the old crop, while soybeans slipped slightly. Export inspections showed strong performance for corn and solid showings for wheat and soybeans. Winter wheat conditions held steady in Kansas but declined in Texas and Oklahoma. Market attention began shifting toward President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement, raising questions over potential trade fallout.
