Agri- Commodities: 7/10/2024 - 11/10/24

Oct 14, 2024

The week began quietly despite geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East, which led to higher wheat prices on CBOT. MATIF milling wheat eased in nearby contracts, while deferred months posted gains. Soybean prices softened due to rapid U.S. harvest progress. Russia's aggressive actions in the Black Sea targeted foreign grain vessels, contributing to rising Russian wheat prices, which hit $223 per ton (12.5% protein) FOB for November shipments. On the global demand front, Saudi Arabia purchased 307k tons of wheat, and Bangladesh issued a tender for 50k tons of milling wheat. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections revealed a surge in soybean shipments, but wheat and corn inspections declined. Harvest progress showed U.S. farmers prioritizing soybeans over corn.

Oilseed prices took a hit on Tuesday as the U.S. soybean harvest exceeded expectations and oil prices plunged due to disappointment over China’s lack of economic stimulus. Corn followed this downward trend, while wheat prices stayed resilient, buoyed by international demand. Algeria’s tender purchases were estimated at 500-550k tons of wheat at around $262.50/ton, with no French wheat involved due to ongoing diplomatic tensions. On the other hand, the EU's soft wheat exports continued to lag last year's pace, and Tunisia bought 125k tons of feed barley. The USDA reported a private sale of 166k tons of soybeans to China, yet this failed to stop the broader soybean decline. On Wednesday wheat prices on MATIF initially surged following reports of potential Russian export restrictions but reversed course as those concerns eased later in the day. Russia’s Agriculture Ministry scheduled a meeting to discuss limiting wheat exports due to lower production. However, reports confirmed that Algeria had bought Russian wheat, offsetting fears of immediate shortages. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reduced its wheat production estimate to 19.5 mmt. Anticipation grew for Thursday’s USDA report, with traders expecting lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and potentially smaller world corn and wheat stocks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's wheat exports continued to recover, reaching 6.6 mmt by October 9, surpassing last year’s levels.

On Thursday the wheat prices climbed ahead of Friday's talks in Russia regarding potential export restrictions. Meanwhile, corn and soybean prices slipped despite rising energy costs. Turkey introduced a 1 mmt corn import quota, and official Russia’s wheat crop estimate was lowered to 83 mmt, aligning with USDA forecasts. Ukraine faced escalating attacks on its grain export infrastructure, driving war insurance premiums higher by 30%. U.S. export sales for corn, wheat, and soybeans were reported within expected ranges, offering little excitement. A weak La Niña was also forecast, expected to last through early 2025.

Grain markets closed the week in the red as the USDA report failed to deliver significant surprises. Russian export news turned out less severe than anticipated, with Moscow instructing exporters to avoid selling wheat below $250 FOB in international tenders, while export duties rose by $5-6 per ton—a routine adjustment. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production estimate to 81.5 mmt for 2024/25. The USDA raised U.S. corn yield estimates, projecting the second-largest crop on record. In France, harvest progress for grain maize lagged significantly behind last year, while the sowing of soft wheat and winter barley was also delayed. The report also highlighted continued short-covering by funds in corn and soybeans.

Weekly Recaps

Commodities

Agri- Commodities:
11-15/08/25 Agri

Aug 18, 2025

Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates.

Freight

Freight Recap:
14/08/25

Aug 14, 2025

The dry bulk market presented a mixed performance this week, with the Supramax segment edging higher, Handysize holding steady with minor gains, and Panamax showing a regional split — weaker in the Atlantic, firmer in the Pacific.

Commodities

Agri- Commodities:
04–08/08/25 Agri

Aug 11, 2025

Grain markets swung sharply this week, rebounding midweek before easing, driven by yield outlooks, export data, and geopolitical headlines.

Freight

Freight Recap:
7/08/25

Aug 07, 2025

Port of Callao halted operations after an Evergreen ship lost 50 containers during rough weather. Meanwhile, July's freight data shows the market stuck in a supply-heavy “holding pattern,” with capacity expanding but pricing rising faster — suggesting a slow, uneven recovery in logistics and transportation

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