Agri- Commodities: 7/10/2024 - 11/10/24
Oct 14, 2024
The week began quietly despite geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East, which led to higher wheat prices on CBOT. MATIF milling wheat eased in nearby contracts, while deferred months posted gains. Soybean prices softened due to rapid U.S. harvest progress. Russia's aggressive actions in the Black Sea targeted foreign grain vessels, contributing to rising Russian wheat prices, which hit $223 per ton (12.5% protein) FOB for November shipments. On the global demand front, Saudi Arabia purchased 307k tons of wheat, and Bangladesh issued a tender for 50k tons of milling wheat. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections revealed a surge in soybean shipments, but wheat and corn inspections declined. Harvest progress showed U.S. farmers prioritizing soybeans over corn.
Oilseed prices took a hit on Tuesday as the U.S. soybean harvest exceeded expectations and oil prices plunged due to disappointment over China’s lack of economic stimulus. Corn followed this downward trend, while wheat prices stayed resilient, buoyed by international demand. Algeria’s tender purchases were estimated at 500-550k tons of wheat at around $262.50/ton, with no French wheat involved due to ongoing diplomatic tensions. On the other hand, the EU's soft wheat exports continued to lag last year's pace, and Tunisia bought 125k tons of feed barley. The USDA reported a private sale of 166k tons of soybeans to China, yet this failed to stop the broader soybean decline. On Wednesday wheat prices on MATIF initially surged following reports of potential Russian export restrictions but reversed course as those concerns eased later in the day. Russia’s Agriculture Ministry scheduled a meeting to discuss limiting wheat exports due to lower production. However, reports confirmed that Algeria had bought Russian wheat, offsetting fears of immediate shortages. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reduced its wheat production estimate to 19.5 mmt. Anticipation grew for Thursday’s USDA report, with traders expecting lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and potentially smaller world corn and wheat stocks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's wheat exports continued to recover, reaching 6.6 mmt by October 9, surpassing last year’s levels.
On Thursday the wheat prices climbed ahead of Friday's talks in Russia regarding potential export restrictions. Meanwhile, corn and soybean prices slipped despite rising energy costs. Turkey introduced a 1 mmt corn import quota, and official Russia’s wheat crop estimate was lowered to 83 mmt, aligning with USDA forecasts. Ukraine faced escalating attacks on its grain export infrastructure, driving war insurance premiums higher by 30%. U.S. export sales for corn, wheat, and soybeans were reported within expected ranges, offering little excitement. A weak La Niña was also forecast, expected to last through early 2025.
Grain markets closed the week in the red as the USDA report failed to deliver significant surprises. Russian export news turned out less severe than anticipated, with Moscow instructing exporters to avoid selling wheat below $250 FOB in international tenders, while export duties rose by $5-6 per ton—a routine adjustment. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production estimate to 81.5 mmt for 2024/25. The USDA raised U.S. corn yield estimates, projecting the second-largest crop on record. In France, harvest progress for grain maize lagged significantly behind last year, while the sowing of soft wheat and winter barley was also delayed. The report also highlighted continued short-covering by funds in corn and soybeans.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
