Agri- Commodities: 21/10/2024 - 25/10/24
Oct 28, 2024
The week began with mixed performance across grain markets, as corn and soybean prices rose while wheat declined. Corn and soybeans benefited from strong demand for U.S. supplies, evident in large USDA-reported sales, including 628k tons of corn and 380k tons of soybeans to various destinations. Wheat, however, faced pressure from competitive Russian exports; IKAR reported a rise in Russian wheat prices to $234/ton for November shipment. In the field, U.S. harvest progress continued, with 65% of corn and 81% of soybeans harvested, while winter wheat planting was 73% complete. Export inspections surged, aligning with seasonal export patterns, particularly for soybeans and corn.
CBOT grains saw positive momentum by Tuesday's close, recovering from early declines. Wheat futures on MATIF remained under pressure in front-month contracts, despite strength in deferred months, reflecting the ongoing competitiveness of Russian wheat. Analysts IKAR and Sovecon projected 2025 Russian wheat production between 80-85 mmt. Tender news featured Tunisia’s purchase of 125k tons of milling wheat and Jordan’s lack of purchases in its 120k-ton tender. A flash sale announcement revealed 359.5k tons of corn sold to Mexico for the 2024/25 marketing year. European trade data highlighted a moderate increase in wheat exports and corn imports, while India lifted its parboiled rice export tax.
Wednesday saw mixed trading, with corn and soybeans rising for a third straight session amid continued demand, while wheat found support above technical levels. The USDA attache revised Australia’s wheat forecast down by 3.5 mmt, now at 28.5 mmt, aligning closer with Australian weather challenges. USDA reported more flash sales, totaling 130k tons of soybeans to China and others, as well as 100k tons of corn. Speculative positions revealed non-commercial selling in MATIF milling wheat, adding to net short positions, while rapeseed saw an increase in net longs. The EUR/USD weakened on a strong dollar and ECB easing discussions, a trend potentially impacting euro-denominated grain prices.
Corn prices maintained their upward trend on Thursday, bolstered by competitive U.S. prices that attracted buyers. In global production, China projected a record-breaking grain output of 700 mmt for 2024, while Ukraine's winter crops struggled with drought despite recent rains. Argentine planting conditions benefited from rainfall, reducing concerns over La Niña impacts. USDA flash sales persisted with 227.6k tons of corn sold to Japan and additional soybean and corn sales. Weekly export sales were robust, with corn sales reaching levels not seen since May 2021.
Friday concluded the week with a downturn, as harvest expectations in the U.S. and favorable planting weather in Brazil pressured corn and soybean prices. Wheat suffered, dropping over 2% across multiple futures markets due to supportive weather trends, including rain in U.S. wheat regions and drier forecasts for France, aiding fieldwork. At the BRICS summit, calls for renewed Black Sea shipping negotiations drew attention, though concrete progress remains to be seen. Argentina projected strong wheat exports for 2024/25 at 13.3 mmt, the second-highest on record. French fieldwork continued to lag, with drier forecasts potentially aiding recovery. In fund activity, corn saw net buying, while soybeans and wheat saw increased selling.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
