Agri- Commodities: 21/10/2024 - 25/10/24

The week began with mixed performance across grain markets, as corn and soybean prices rose while wheat declined. Corn and soybeans benefited from strong demand for U.S. supplies, evident in large USDA-reported sales, including 628k tons of corn and 380k tons of soybeans to various destinations. Wheat, however, faced pressure from competitive Russian exports; IKAR reported a rise in Russian wheat prices to $234/ton for November shipment. In the field, U.S. harvest progress continued, with 65% of corn and 81% of soybeans harvested, while winter wheat planting was 73% complete. Export inspections surged, aligning with seasonal export patterns, particularly for soybeans and corn.

CBOT grains saw positive momentum by Tuesday's close, recovering from early declines. Wheat futures on MATIF remained under pressure in front-month contracts, despite strength in deferred months, reflecting the ongoing competitiveness of Russian wheat. Analysts IKAR and Sovecon projected 2025 Russian wheat production between 80-85 mmt. Tender news featured Tunisia’s purchase of 125k tons of milling wheat and Jordan’s lack of purchases in its 120k-ton tender. A flash sale announcement revealed 359.5k tons of corn sold to Mexico for the 2024/25 marketing year. European trade data highlighted a moderate increase in wheat exports and corn imports, while India lifted its parboiled rice export tax.

Wednesday saw mixed trading, with corn and soybeans rising for a third straight session amid continued demand, while wheat found support above technical levels. The USDA attache revised Australia’s wheat forecast down by 3.5 mmt, now at 28.5 mmt, aligning closer with Australian weather challenges. USDA reported more flash sales, totaling 130k tons of soybeans to China and others, as well as 100k tons of corn. Speculative positions revealed non-commercial selling in MATIF milling wheat, adding to net short positions, while rapeseed saw an increase in net longs. The EUR/USD weakened on a strong dollar and ECB easing discussions, a trend potentially impacting euro-denominated grain prices.

Corn prices maintained their upward trend on Thursday, bolstered by competitive U.S. prices that attracted buyers. In global production, China projected a record-breaking grain output of 700 mmt for 2024, while Ukraine's winter crops struggled with drought despite recent rains. Argentine planting conditions benefited from rainfall, reducing concerns over La Niña impacts. USDA flash sales persisted with 227.6k tons of corn sold to Japan and additional soybean and corn sales. Weekly export sales were robust, with corn sales reaching levels not seen since May 2021.

Friday concluded the week with a downturn, as harvest expectations in the U.S. and favorable planting weather in Brazil pressured corn and soybean prices. Wheat suffered, dropping over 2% across multiple futures markets due to supportive weather trends, including rain in U.S. wheat regions and drier forecasts for France, aiding fieldwork. At the BRICS summit, calls for renewed Black Sea shipping negotiations drew attention, though concrete progress remains to be seen. Argentina projected strong wheat exports for 2024/25 at 13.3 mmt, the second-highest on record. French fieldwork continued to lag, with drier forecasts potentially aiding recovery. In fund activity, corn saw net buying, while soybeans and wheat saw increased selling.