Agri- Commodities: 4-8/11/24
Nov 11, 2024
Grain prices opened the week with mixed movements; only December MATIF futures saw a notable decline, falling 1.5%. In global trade, Egypt’s GASC secured 290,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania at competitive prices, while Russian and French offers struggled to compete. Meanwhile, U.S. corn and soybean harvests approached completion at 91% and 94%, respectively. Winter wheat plantings reached 87%, buoyed by timely rains improving crop conditions. U.S. weekly export inspections saw soybean focus remain steady, although both corn and wheat inspections slowed seasonally. Additionally, OPEC+ extended output cuts, sparking oil price hikes, an indirect factor for agri-commodity inflation.
On Tuesday, Election Day in the U.S. injected volatility into markets as the election results showed a Trump lead, strengthening the dollar and weakening soybeans, wheat, and corn amid lower commodity pricing power. Grain prices closed higher overall, but MATIF wheat remained flat while rapeseed declined. Jordan secured 60,000 tons of milling wheat at a slight premium over prior purchase, and the USDA reported private sales of 124,000 tons of corn. Anticipation built for Friday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), with projections suggesting potential downward revisions in U.S. corn and soybean production and global carryout across major grains.
Middle of the week, markets saw initial pressure following U.S. election outcomes but recovered by the close, aided by gains in Euro-denominated grain prices, driven by a weaker EUR/USD exchange rate. Non-commercial traders were active, expanding net short positions in MATIF wheat while increasing long positions in rapeseed, aligning with a slight price rise. With the Federal Reserve set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, traders awaited potential policy signals on future rate adjustments amidst recent U.S. election results and slower economic indicators.
On Thursday, Corn and soybeans extended their rally, marking consecutive daily gains driven by a robust vegetable oil market that buoyed soybean prices. Wheat, however, remained range-bound, while MATIF wheat prices continued their subdued trend despite euro weakness. The USDA released its 2025/26 baseline projections, estimating relatively unchanged wheat acreage but modestly higher corn plantings and a reduction in soybean area. Meanwhile, Algeria and Bangladesh issued new wheat and corn tenders, and weekly U.S. export sales were led by strong corn transactions. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut came with caution on future policy adjustments, adding uncertainty to market sentiment.
Friday closed with CBOT corn and soybeans on a positive streak, wrapping up an uninterrupted week of gains, though USDA’s WASDE report provided mixed support. U.S. soybean yield expectations were revised downward from record highs, while projections for average farm prices held steady for corn and soybeans, with a slight drop in wheat price projections. Notably, the USDA reduced China’s corn and wheat import needs by 3 mmt and 0.5 mmt, respectively. More private export sales were reported for corn and soybeans, yet soybean export estimates were adjusted downward, leaving corn projections untouched. Meanwhile, French soft wheat sowing lagged historical averages slightly, and funds turned net-long in corn while holding short positions in soybeans and wheat.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
17-21/11/25 Agri
Nov 24, 2025
The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.
Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
