Agri- Commodities: 11-15/11/24
Nov 18, 2024
Grain markets began the week under pressure as a strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on dollar-denominated commodities. Corn and soybeans underwent expected corrections following recent gains, while Chicago wheat prices surprised the market by briefly touching 10-week lows. This decline was driven by improving U.S. weather, easing Russian cash prices, and the removal of some geopolitical risk premiums. Russian wheat prices fell, with 12.5% protein wheat quoted at $228/ton FOB, down $4 from last week. Notably, geopolitical tensions appeared to ease as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump encouraged de-escalation in Ukraine during a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On Tuesday, the downward trend in grains persisted, with wheat leading the declines. Funds showed little hesitation in maintaining short positions in wheat amid improving U.S. crop conditions. Notable activity in international tenders included Jordan purchasing 60,000 tons of milling wheat for February shipment and Algeria's ONAB seeking up to 240,000 tons of feed corn. U.S. weekly export inspections exceeded expectations across soybeans, corn, and wheat. Meanwhile, European customs data showed soft wheat exports at 8.34 MMT as of November 10, although still trailing last year’s levels. French crop estimates were revised upward, with soft wheat pegged at 25.56 MMT and maize at 14.62 MMT. U.S. winter wheat conditions improved, with 44% rated good/excellent, up from 41% the previous week.
Middle of the week, wheat prices continued their steep decline, with CBOT futures nearing August lows as bearish sentiment dominated. Corn fared better, supported by robust U.S. export demand, narrowing the price spread between wheat and corn. FranceAgriMer reduced its soft wheat export forecast to third countries, and ending stocks were revised upward to 2.78 MMT. In Russia, winter wheat sowing estimates reached a five-year low, but production was still forecast at a solid 84.5 MMT. Argentine wheat production was downgraded to 18.8 MMT due to delayed rains. Meanwhile, U.S. export sales to Mexico and unknown destinations boosted corn sentiment. On the financial side, speculative traders increased net short positions in MATIF milling wheat, while maintaining huge long positions in rapeseed.
On Thursday, grain markets struggled again, with CBOT wheat marking its sixth consecutive decline. Russian wheat crop estimates were slightly trimmed by Sovecon to 81.4 MMT for 2024, with next year’s forecast raised to 81.6 MMT. Russian exports slowed notably, with November estimates at 4 MMT, down from 6 MMT in October. Brazil’s CONAB made minor upward revisions to corn and soybean estimates, but USDA projections remained more optimistic. On the tender front, Jordan and Algeria re-entered the market for barley and corn, respectively. The USDA confirmed a soybean sale to unknown destinations, adding a modest bullish factor amid a broadly weaker grain complex.
Markets rebounded sharply to close the week on a positive note, led by technical buying and position adjustments. December MATIF wheat surged nearly 3%, driven by options expiration. Supportive soybean news included a record October crush by NOPA, at 199.96 million bushels, and China’s decision to cancel export tax rebates for certain biofuel feedstocks, boosting U.S. soybean oil prices. U.S. weekly export sales revealed wheat near the middle of expectations and corn and soybeans at the lower end. A significant fund inflow saw net long positions in corn rise to 110,000 contracts, marking the second-largest weekly increase in five years.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
17-21/11/25 Agri
Nov 24, 2025
The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.
Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/11/25 Agri
Nov 17, 2025
Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown.
Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year.
