Agri- Commodities: 11-15/11/24
Nov 18, 2024
Grain markets began the week under pressure as a strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on dollar-denominated commodities. Corn and soybeans underwent expected corrections following recent gains, while Chicago wheat prices surprised the market by briefly touching 10-week lows. This decline was driven by improving U.S. weather, easing Russian cash prices, and the removal of some geopolitical risk premiums. Russian wheat prices fell, with 12.5% protein wheat quoted at $228/ton FOB, down $4 from last week. Notably, geopolitical tensions appeared to ease as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump encouraged de-escalation in Ukraine during a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On Tuesday, the downward trend in grains persisted, with wheat leading the declines. Funds showed little hesitation in maintaining short positions in wheat amid improving U.S. crop conditions. Notable activity in international tenders included Jordan purchasing 60,000 tons of milling wheat for February shipment and Algeria's ONAB seeking up to 240,000 tons of feed corn. U.S. weekly export inspections exceeded expectations across soybeans, corn, and wheat. Meanwhile, European customs data showed soft wheat exports at 8.34 MMT as of November 10, although still trailing last year’s levels. French crop estimates were revised upward, with soft wheat pegged at 25.56 MMT and maize at 14.62 MMT. U.S. winter wheat conditions improved, with 44% rated good/excellent, up from 41% the previous week.
Middle of the week, wheat prices continued their steep decline, with CBOT futures nearing August lows as bearish sentiment dominated. Corn fared better, supported by robust U.S. export demand, narrowing the price spread between wheat and corn. FranceAgriMer reduced its soft wheat export forecast to third countries, and ending stocks were revised upward to 2.78 MMT. In Russia, winter wheat sowing estimates reached a five-year low, but production was still forecast at a solid 84.5 MMT. Argentine wheat production was downgraded to 18.8 MMT due to delayed rains. Meanwhile, U.S. export sales to Mexico and unknown destinations boosted corn sentiment. On the financial side, speculative traders increased net short positions in MATIF milling wheat, while maintaining huge long positions in rapeseed.
On Thursday, grain markets struggled again, with CBOT wheat marking its sixth consecutive decline. Russian wheat crop estimates were slightly trimmed by Sovecon to 81.4 MMT for 2024, with next year’s forecast raised to 81.6 MMT. Russian exports slowed notably, with November estimates at 4 MMT, down from 6 MMT in October. Brazil’s CONAB made minor upward revisions to corn and soybean estimates, but USDA projections remained more optimistic. On the tender front, Jordan and Algeria re-entered the market for barley and corn, respectively. The USDA confirmed a soybean sale to unknown destinations, adding a modest bullish factor amid a broadly weaker grain complex.
Markets rebounded sharply to close the week on a positive note, led by technical buying and position adjustments. December MATIF wheat surged nearly 3%, driven by options expiration. Supportive soybean news included a record October crush by NOPA, at 199.96 million bushels, and China’s decision to cancel export tax rebates for certain biofuel feedstocks, boosting U.S. soybean oil prices. U.S. weekly export sales revealed wheat near the middle of expectations and corn and soybeans at the lower end. A significant fund inflow saw net long positions in corn rise to 110,000 contracts, marking the second-largest weekly increase in five years.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
03/07/25
Jul 03, 2025
The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained mixed.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23–27/06/25 Agri
Jun 30, 2025
The week opened with a sharp pullback across grain markets as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While the truce remained fragile—lacking official confirmation from Israel—market sentiment quickly pivoted back to fundamentals. Pressure mounted as U.S. crop conditions were mixed and EU wheat yield projections were revised higher, particularly in southern and eastern Europe. U.S. export inspections provided little optimism, with soybeans and wheat underperforming, and fund positioning indicated heavy corn selling alongside increased soybean buying.
Freight
Freight Recap:
26/06/25
Jun 19, 2025
The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16–20/06/25 Agri
Jun 23, 2025
Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks.
