Agri- Commodities: 18-22/11/24

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 06-10/07/2026: Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 29-03/07/2026: Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 22-26/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with a split performance. MATIF wheat found support from intensifying heat across western Europe, while US wheat remained under pressure from the advancing harvest. Corn and soybeans closed lower as favorable US crop conditions continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing concerns over Europe. European weather dominated the discussion, but also drew attention. EU soft wheat exports continued to outperform last year, with line-up estimates already exceeding 27 mmt, while Egypt began exploring higher wheat imports from Poland to diversify grain supplies. Meanwhile, US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly to 40% complete. US wheat and corn extended their decline as harvest pressure continued to build and South American supplies weighed on corn markets. In contrast, Europe remained focused on persistent heat and limited rainfall, with forecasts showing crop stress gradually shifting from France toward northern producing regions. Supply revisions remained mixed. Sovecon lowered Russia's wheat crop forecast to 88.9 mmt after excessive rainfall reduced spring wheat plantings, while EU wheat exports continued to move ahead of last year's pace. Jordan once again made no purchases in its wheat tender. MATIF wheat rallied again as hot and dry weather across western Europe remained the dominant market driver. US wheat failed to hold early gains, while corn and soybeans weakened despite sharply lower oil prices. Egypt opened discussions to increase wheat imports from Poland as part of efforts to diversify strategic food supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices briefly dropped back into the $60s after Iran assured the US that commercial vessels would not face additional costs when passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the interim peace agreement. Markets reversed direction, with MATIF wheat easing while US grains recovered alongside firmer oil prices. Traders also digested a fresh round of global production estimates. The European Commission lowered its production forecasts for soft wheat, corn and barley after reducing harvested area estimates, while the IGC raised its outlook for global corn and wheat production. US drought conditions changed little, suggesting European weather remains the larger concern for grain markets. Grains finished the week lower, led by wheat, as traders shifted their attention toward the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Weather remains the dominant driver, particularly for European crops facing prolonged heat and for US corn entering its critical pollination period. French wheat ratings slipped another two percentage points but remained above last year and the five-year average, while maize conditions deteriorated more sharply. US-Iran tensions eased after both sides agreed to halt attacks ahead of renewed peace talks in Doha, although shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain closely monitored. The Russian ruble weakened sharply, switching Russia's wheat export tax back on after several weeks at zero.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.