Agri- Commodities: 2-6/12/24
Dec 09, 2024
Monday began with divergent price directions between European and CBOT futures, driven in part by EUR/USD volatility. European wheat found some support, countering pressure from news of Russia's expanded wheat export agreement with Morocco, which could challenge French exports. In Australia, ABARES raised wheat production forecasts to 31.9 mmt for 2024/25 (+23% y/y), while Russian winter crop conditions revealed alarming statistics, with only 32% rated good/excellent compared to 74% last year. U.S. weekly export inspections showed moderate volumes across soybeans, corn, and wheat but did little to bolster prices as analysts projected a record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop exceeding 170 mmt.
On Tuesday, wheat markets experienced a modest rise, but gains were largely pared back in U.S. futures. Oilseed markets drew strength from rising energy prices amid speculation of extended OPEC+ output cuts. EU wheat exports totaled 9.48 mmt by December 1, with projections suggesting a full-season export total of 24–25 mmt. Corn markets remained stagnant, awaiting clearer directional cues.
Wednesday saw continued choppy trading as South American weather remained favorable, curbing any significant upside for corn and soybeans. Heavy rains in Australia sparked concerns of potential downgrades in 2.5–5 mmt of wheat.
On Thursday, wheat prices led a market-wide rally, with U.S. futures recovering from contract lows earlier in the week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. corn export sales (1.75 mmt) provided further support, alongside a private soybean sale to China. Statistics Canada's wheat crop estimates aligned with expectations at 35 mmt, although canola production fell short of forecasts. As the USDA WASDE report approached, analysts anticipated minimal changes, suggesting limited market impact barring unexpected adjustments.
By Friday, grain markets largely stabilized, with minimal price movement in wheat and soybeans, while corn extended gains after breaking above its 50-day moving average. French soft wheat sowing progress reached 96%, slightly ahead of the five-year average, while crop conditions slipped modestly. Russia's wheat export tax increased by +32%. Concerns over Egypt's wheat import system overhaul and heightened geopolitical risks added further uncertainty to the outlook.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/3/25 AGRI
Mar 17, 2025
U.S. wheat futures opened the week on a strong note, led by Kansas wheat, as traders reacted to deteriorating crop conditions in key HRW states. The rally coincided with Algeria’s milling wheat tender, though MATIF wheat showed a more hesitant response. Meanwhile, soybeans faced pressure as China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods took effect. Export inspections indicated solid corn shipments but disappointing wheat figures. India projected record wheat production at 115.3 million metric tons, signaling ample supply ahead.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/03/25
Mar 13, 2025
The Panamax market saw further gains, supported by increased Atlantic activity, particularly in trans-Atlantic business from the U.S. Fresh cargo flows and tightening vessel availability contributed to sizable rate improvements. In South America, activity picked up for March and April positions, reinforcing positive sentiment. Owners met improved bids with some resistance, further bolstering rates. While uncertainty persists regarding U.S. trade policy impacts, the expected second grain wave from ECSA added to market optimism.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
3-7/3/25 AGRI
Mar 11, 2025
The week opened with a continuation of last week’s bearish trend, as grain markets faced significant headwinds. Wheat was particularly weak due to an upward revision in Australia’s crop estimate. Market sentiment deteriorated further on confirmation that the U.S. has implemented tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada—25% on Canada and Mexico, and 20% on China. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on key U.S. agricultural imports, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, effective March 10. Canada followed with 25% tariffs on U.S. goods worth $155 billion. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices declined by $3 per ton to $248 FOB, adding to the bearish tone. Australian production estimates surged, with wheat up to 34.1 MMT (+31% y/y) and barley to 13.3 MMT (+23% y/y). Weekly U.S. export inspections showed solid corn movement at 1.35 MMT, while the USDA confirmed a 114k-ton corn sale to Mexico.
