Agri- Commodities: 2-6/12/24
Dec 09, 2024
Monday began with divergent price directions between European and CBOT futures, driven in part by EUR/USD volatility. European wheat found some support, countering pressure from news of Russia's expanded wheat export agreement with Morocco, which could challenge French exports. In Australia, ABARES raised wheat production forecasts to 31.9 mmt for 2024/25 (+23% y/y), while Russian winter crop conditions revealed alarming statistics, with only 32% rated good/excellent compared to 74% last year. U.S. weekly export inspections showed moderate volumes across soybeans, corn, and wheat but did little to bolster prices as analysts projected a record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop exceeding 170 mmt.
On Tuesday, wheat markets experienced a modest rise, but gains were largely pared back in U.S. futures. Oilseed markets drew strength from rising energy prices amid speculation of extended OPEC+ output cuts. EU wheat exports totaled 9.48 mmt by December 1, with projections suggesting a full-season export total of 24–25 mmt. Corn markets remained stagnant, awaiting clearer directional cues.
Wednesday saw continued choppy trading as South American weather remained favorable, curbing any significant upside for corn and soybeans. Heavy rains in Australia sparked concerns of potential downgrades in 2.5–5 mmt of wheat.
On Thursday, wheat prices led a market-wide rally, with U.S. futures recovering from contract lows earlier in the week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. corn export sales (1.75 mmt) provided further support, alongside a private soybean sale to China. Statistics Canada's wheat crop estimates aligned with expectations at 35 mmt, although canola production fell short of forecasts. As the USDA WASDE report approached, analysts anticipated minimal changes, suggesting limited market impact barring unexpected adjustments.
By Friday, grain markets largely stabilized, with minimal price movement in wheat and soybeans, while corn extended gains after breaking above its 50-day moving average. French soft wheat sowing progress reached 96%, slightly ahead of the five-year average, while crop conditions slipped modestly. Russia's wheat export tax increased by +32%. Concerns over Egypt's wheat import system overhaul and heightened geopolitical risks added further uncertainty to the outlook.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
