Agri- Commodities: 2-6/12/24
Dec 09, 2024
Monday began with divergent price directions between European and CBOT futures, driven in part by EUR/USD volatility. European wheat found some support, countering pressure from news of Russia's expanded wheat export agreement with Morocco, which could challenge French exports. In Australia, ABARES raised wheat production forecasts to 31.9 mmt for 2024/25 (+23% y/y), while Russian winter crop conditions revealed alarming statistics, with only 32% rated good/excellent compared to 74% last year. U.S. weekly export inspections showed moderate volumes across soybeans, corn, and wheat but did little to bolster prices as analysts projected a record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop exceeding 170 mmt.
On Tuesday, wheat markets experienced a modest rise, but gains were largely pared back in U.S. futures. Oilseed markets drew strength from rising energy prices amid speculation of extended OPEC+ output cuts. EU wheat exports totaled 9.48 mmt by December 1, with projections suggesting a full-season export total of 24–25 mmt. Corn markets remained stagnant, awaiting clearer directional cues.
Wednesday saw continued choppy trading as South American weather remained favorable, curbing any significant upside for corn and soybeans. Heavy rains in Australia sparked concerns of potential downgrades in 2.5–5 mmt of wheat.
On Thursday, wheat prices led a market-wide rally, with U.S. futures recovering from contract lows earlier in the week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. corn export sales (1.75 mmt) provided further support, alongside a private soybean sale to China. Statistics Canada's wheat crop estimates aligned with expectations at 35 mmt, although canola production fell short of forecasts. As the USDA WASDE report approached, analysts anticipated minimal changes, suggesting limited market impact barring unexpected adjustments.
By Friday, grain markets largely stabilized, with minimal price movement in wheat and soybeans, while corn extended gains after breaking above its 50-day moving average. French soft wheat sowing progress reached 96%, slightly ahead of the five-year average, while crop conditions slipped modestly. Russia's wheat export tax increased by +32%. Concerns over Egypt's wheat import system overhaul and heightened geopolitical risks added further uncertainty to the outlook.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/6/25 Agri
Jun 16, 2025
Grain markets were pulled in opposing directions throughout Week 24, as favorable crop prospects, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. policy developments generated volatile trading. The week opened with a sharp sell-off in corn and wheat, as improved U.S. crop conditions and benign weather forecasts reinforced expectations of ample supplies. Corn and wheat both fell more than 2% on Monday, effectively wiping out prior gains. U.S. crop ratings surprised to the upside, with corn at 71% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. Concurrently, stronger forecasts for Russian and Romanian wheat harvests added further pressure, while China’s surging soybean imports – largely sourced from Brazil – highlighted its continued pivot away from U.S. origin.
Freight
Freight Recap:
12/06/25
Jun 12, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market strengthened further, particularly in the North where limited tonnage availability led owners to raise offers.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
2-6/6/25 Agri
Jun 09, 2025
Grain markets opened June on a mixed footing, with wheat futures initially rallying on renewed geopolitical fears following escalations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the rally soon fizzled as U.S. crop progress data turned sentiment more bearish. Spring and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded expectations, with plantings and harvests advancing steadily. Meanwhile, USDA export inspections showed strong corn loadings, but soybeans and wheat lagged.
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
