Agri- Commodities: 2-6/12/24
Dec 09, 2024
Monday began with divergent price directions between European and CBOT futures, driven in part by EUR/USD volatility. European wheat found some support, countering pressure from news of Russia's expanded wheat export agreement with Morocco, which could challenge French exports. In Australia, ABARES raised wheat production forecasts to 31.9 mmt for 2024/25 (+23% y/y), while Russian winter crop conditions revealed alarming statistics, with only 32% rated good/excellent compared to 74% last year. U.S. weekly export inspections showed moderate volumes across soybeans, corn, and wheat but did little to bolster prices as analysts projected a record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop exceeding 170 mmt.
On Tuesday, wheat markets experienced a modest rise, but gains were largely pared back in U.S. futures. Oilseed markets drew strength from rising energy prices amid speculation of extended OPEC+ output cuts. EU wheat exports totaled 9.48 mmt by December 1, with projections suggesting a full-season export total of 24–25 mmt. Corn markets remained stagnant, awaiting clearer directional cues.
Wednesday saw continued choppy trading as South American weather remained favorable, curbing any significant upside for corn and soybeans. Heavy rains in Australia sparked concerns of potential downgrades in 2.5–5 mmt of wheat.
On Thursday, wheat prices led a market-wide rally, with U.S. futures recovering from contract lows earlier in the week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. corn export sales (1.75 mmt) provided further support, alongside a private soybean sale to China. Statistics Canada's wheat crop estimates aligned with expectations at 35 mmt, although canola production fell short of forecasts. As the USDA WASDE report approached, analysts anticipated minimal changes, suggesting limited market impact barring unexpected adjustments.
By Friday, grain markets largely stabilized, with minimal price movement in wheat and soybeans, while corn extended gains after breaking above its 50-day moving average. French soft wheat sowing progress reached 96%, slightly ahead of the five-year average, while crop conditions slipped modestly. Russia's wheat export tax increased by +32%. Concerns over Egypt's wheat import system overhaul and heightened geopolitical risks added further uncertainty to the outlook.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
11-15/08/25 Agri
Aug 18, 2025
Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates.
Freight
Freight Recap:
14/08/25
Aug 14, 2025
The dry bulk market presented a mixed performance this week, with the Supramax segment edging higher, Handysize holding steady with minor gains, and Panamax showing a regional split — weaker in the Atlantic, firmer in the Pacific.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
04–08/08/25 Agri
Aug 11, 2025
Grain markets swung sharply this week, rebounding midweek before easing, driven by yield outlooks, export data, and geopolitical headlines.
Freight
Freight Recap:
7/08/25
Aug 07, 2025
Port of Callao halted operations after an Evergreen ship lost 50 containers during rough weather. Meanwhile, July's freight data shows the market stuck in a supply-heavy “holding pattern,” with capacity expanding but pricing rising faster — suggesting a slow, uneven recovery in logistics and transportation
