Agri- Commodities: 2-6/12/24
Dec 09, 2024
Monday began with divergent price directions between European and CBOT futures, driven in part by EUR/USD volatility. European wheat found some support, countering pressure from news of Russia's expanded wheat export agreement with Morocco, which could challenge French exports. In Australia, ABARES raised wheat production forecasts to 31.9 mmt for 2024/25 (+23% y/y), while Russian winter crop conditions revealed alarming statistics, with only 32% rated good/excellent compared to 74% last year. U.S. weekly export inspections showed moderate volumes across soybeans, corn, and wheat but did little to bolster prices as analysts projected a record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop exceeding 170 mmt.
On Tuesday, wheat markets experienced a modest rise, but gains were largely pared back in U.S. futures. Oilseed markets drew strength from rising energy prices amid speculation of extended OPEC+ output cuts. EU wheat exports totaled 9.48 mmt by December 1, with projections suggesting a full-season export total of 24–25 mmt. Corn markets remained stagnant, awaiting clearer directional cues.
Wednesday saw continued choppy trading as South American weather remained favorable, curbing any significant upside for corn and soybeans. Heavy rains in Australia sparked concerns of potential downgrades in 2.5–5 mmt of wheat.
On Thursday, wheat prices led a market-wide rally, with U.S. futures recovering from contract lows earlier in the week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. corn export sales (1.75 mmt) provided further support, alongside a private soybean sale to China. Statistics Canada's wheat crop estimates aligned with expectations at 35 mmt, although canola production fell short of forecasts. As the USDA WASDE report approached, analysts anticipated minimal changes, suggesting limited market impact barring unexpected adjustments.
By Friday, grain markets largely stabilized, with minimal price movement in wheat and soybeans, while corn extended gains after breaking above its 50-day moving average. French soft wheat sowing progress reached 96%, slightly ahead of the five-year average, while crop conditions slipped modestly. Russia's wheat export tax increased by +32%. Concerns over Egypt's wheat import system overhaul and heightened geopolitical risks added further uncertainty to the outlook.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
Freight
Freight Recap:
06/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
