Agri- Commodities: 9-13/12/24
Dec 16, 2024
US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
On Tuesday, the USDA report delivered a bullish surprise for corn, driving prices to their highest levels in over two months. U.S. ending stocks were sharply reduced due to higher export and ethanol use projections, creating a more optimistic supply-demand outlook. Wheat saw modest adjustments, with U.S. carryout lowered by 20 million bushels and global production revised down slightly. However, world ending stocks for wheat rose marginally. Soybean estimates remained largely unchanged, with global stocks only slightly below expectations. Funds reacted to the bullish corn outlook, initiating significant buying activity, which also lent support to wheat and soybeans despite neutral fundamentals.
Middle of the week, follow-through buying propelled prices higher early in the session, but momentum waned as traders digested the USDA’s data. Outside the U.S., Argentina’s wheat yields exceeded expectations, prompting the Rosario Grains Exchange to raise its production estimate to 19.3 mmt, well above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt forecast. India tightened wheat stock limits for traders and processors, raising questions about its ability to meet demand without imports before the new crop arrives in April. Meanwhile, Russian farmers were reported to be shifting away from wheat to more profitable oilseeds, potentially altering future planting dynamics. Fund positioning showed a reduction in net short positions for MATIF milling wheat.
On Thursday, the Corn and wheat futures retreated as corn prices fell from technically overbought levels, exacerbated by disappointing U.S. weekly export sales. Wheat sales totaled a meager 290k tons, and corn and soybean sales also underperformed expectations. Despite the bearish tone, soybeans avoided losses, buoyed by a private export sale of 334k tons to unknown destinations. Brazil’s CONAB slightly revised its crop estimates, with minor reductions for corn and increases for soybeans, aligning closely with USDA forecasts. The European Central Bank’s interest rate cut signaled a weaker economic outlook, but its impact on the grain market was muted.
The week concluded with mixed performance across grain markets. CBOT futures ended lower, while Euronext saw gains. Ukraine raised its 2024 crop estimate to 55 mmt, with an exportable surplus of 40.3 mmt, reflecting improved production prospects. Fund positions highlighted the bullish tone in corn, with a sharp increase in net long positions to 165.9k contracts, the highest since February 2023.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
10-14/3/25 AGRI
Mar 17, 2025
U.S. wheat futures opened the week on a strong note, led by Kansas wheat, as traders reacted to deteriorating crop conditions in key HRW states. The rally coincided with Algeria’s milling wheat tender, though MATIF wheat showed a more hesitant response. Meanwhile, soybeans faced pressure as China’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods took effect. Export inspections indicated solid corn shipments but disappointing wheat figures. India projected record wheat production at 115.3 million metric tons, signaling ample supply ahead.
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/03/25
Mar 13, 2025
The Panamax market saw further gains, supported by increased Atlantic activity, particularly in trans-Atlantic business from the U.S. Fresh cargo flows and tightening vessel availability contributed to sizable rate improvements. In South America, activity picked up for March and April positions, reinforcing positive sentiment. Owners met improved bids with some resistance, further bolstering rates. While uncertainty persists regarding U.S. trade policy impacts, the expected second grain wave from ECSA added to market optimism.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
3-7/3/25 AGRI
Mar 11, 2025
The week opened with a continuation of last week’s bearish trend, as grain markets faced significant headwinds. Wheat was particularly weak due to an upward revision in Australia’s crop estimate. Market sentiment deteriorated further on confirmation that the U.S. has implemented tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada—25% on Canada and Mexico, and 20% on China. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on key U.S. agricultural imports, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, effective March 10. Canada followed with 25% tariffs on U.S. goods worth $155 billion. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices declined by $3 per ton to $248 FOB, adding to the bearish tone. Australian production estimates surged, with wheat up to 34.1 MMT (+31% y/y) and barley to 13.3 MMT (+23% y/y). Weekly U.S. export inspections showed solid corn movement at 1.35 MMT, while the USDA confirmed a 114k-ton corn sale to Mexico.
