Agri- Commodities: 9-13/12/24
Dec 16, 2024
US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
On Tuesday, the USDA report delivered a bullish surprise for corn, driving prices to their highest levels in over two months. U.S. ending stocks were sharply reduced due to higher export and ethanol use projections, creating a more optimistic supply-demand outlook. Wheat saw modest adjustments, with U.S. carryout lowered by 20 million bushels and global production revised down slightly. However, world ending stocks for wheat rose marginally. Soybean estimates remained largely unchanged, with global stocks only slightly below expectations. Funds reacted to the bullish corn outlook, initiating significant buying activity, which also lent support to wheat and soybeans despite neutral fundamentals.
Middle of the week, follow-through buying propelled prices higher early in the session, but momentum waned as traders digested the USDA’s data. Outside the U.S., Argentina’s wheat yields exceeded expectations, prompting the Rosario Grains Exchange to raise its production estimate to 19.3 mmt, well above the USDA’s 17.5 mmt forecast. India tightened wheat stock limits for traders and processors, raising questions about its ability to meet demand without imports before the new crop arrives in April. Meanwhile, Russian farmers were reported to be shifting away from wheat to more profitable oilseeds, potentially altering future planting dynamics. Fund positioning showed a reduction in net short positions for MATIF milling wheat.
On Thursday, the Corn and wheat futures retreated as corn prices fell from technically overbought levels, exacerbated by disappointing U.S. weekly export sales. Wheat sales totaled a meager 290k tons, and corn and soybean sales also underperformed expectations. Despite the bearish tone, soybeans avoided losses, buoyed by a private export sale of 334k tons to unknown destinations. Brazil’s CONAB slightly revised its crop estimates, with minor reductions for corn and increases for soybeans, aligning closely with USDA forecasts. The European Central Bank’s interest rate cut signaled a weaker economic outlook, but its impact on the grain market was muted.
The week concluded with mixed performance across grain markets. CBOT futures ended lower, while Euronext saw gains. Ukraine raised its 2024 crop estimate to 55 mmt, with an exportable surplus of 40.3 mmt, reflecting improved production prospects. Fund positions highlighted the bullish tone in corn, with a sharp increase in net long positions to 165.9k contracts, the highest since February 2023.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
