Agri- Commodities: 3-7/3/25
Mar 11, 2025
Monday The week opened with a continuation of last week’s bearish trend, as grain markets faced significant headwinds. Wheat was particularly weak due to an upward revision in Australia’s crop estimate. Market sentiment deteriorated further on confirmation that the U.S. has implemented tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada—25% on Canada and Mexico, and 20% on China. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on key U.S. agricultural imports, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, effective March 10. Canada followed with 25% tariffs on U.S. goods worth $155 billion. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices declined by $3 per ton to $248 FOB, adding to the bearish tone. Australian production estimates surged, with wheat up to 34.1 MMT (+31% y/y) and barley to 13.3 MMT (+23% y/y). Weekly U.S. export inspections showed solid corn movement at 1.35 MMT, while the USDA confirmed a 114k-ton corn sale to Mexico.
Tuesday Grain prices remained under pressure, with CBOT wheat hitting new contract lows before a late-session recovery. EU wheat exports rose to 13.93 MMT as of March 2, although line-up data suggests actual figures could be much higher. The USDA reported a 130k-ton white wheat sale to South Korea, indicating a potential competitiveness shift for U.S. wheat. Additionally, 20k tons of soybean oil were sold to unknown buyers. Weakness in crude oil continued for a third session after OPEC+ announced an April production increase, raising concerns about global demand amid escalating tariff conflicts. The euro strengthened, buoyed by Germany’s major debt overhaul and infrastructure fund approval.
Wednesday CBOT grain markets rebounded from oversold conditions on Wednesday, largely due to speculation that President Trump might delay tariff implementation. However, MATIF wheat continued its decline as the euro strengthened further. Trump granted a one-month tariff reprieve for U.S. automakers, urging them to shift production from Mexico and Canada to the U.S. Russia’s chief meteorologist reported that winter crops in the European part of Russia are in good condition despite lower precipitation. Syria issued a tender for 100k tons of soft wheat, while Jordan purchased 100k tons of barley at $230.50/ton C&F. Speculative positioning showed aggressive selling in MATIF wheat futures, with non-commercial traders increasing their net short position by 63.2k contracts.
Thursday CBOT grains extended gains for a second day, supported by bargain buying and delays in tariff implementation for Mexico and Canada. However, financial markets remained jittery, with investors awaiting the April 2 tariff deadline. Trump confirmed a postponement of the 25% tariffs on USMCA imports, following discussions with Mexican and Canadian leaders. The ECB cut interest rates to 2.5%, but signaled that its easing cycle is nearing an end. In exports, U.S. sales for the week totaled 416k tons of wheat, 961k tons of corn, and 408k tons of soybeans, with Mexico accounting for 36% of all U.S. corn commitments. Tunisia issued a tender for 25k tons of corn, with offers due Friday. Crop condition updates highlighted concerns in Eastern Europe and Ukraine due to persistent dryness, raising doubts about winter wheat yield potential.
Friday Markets ended the week mostly in the red, except for corn, which managed to eke out gains. The focus shifted to the upcoming USDA WASDE report, expected to deliver only minor adjustments to U.S. and global ending stocks. French wheat conditions improved slightly, with 74% of the crop rated good/excellent. Fund activity showed aggressive liquidation, with net long positions in CBOT corn shrinking by a third to 219.8k contracts, the steepest weekly decline in two years. Funds also extended net short positions in wheat and flipped to a net short in soybeans. Trade tensions escalated as China imposed 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and pea products, along with 25% tariffs on pork and seafood, in response to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and metals. The USDA report, due over the weekend, is unlikely to provide major surprises, though South American production estimates remain a wildcard.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
17-21/11/25 Agri
Nov 24, 2025
The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.
Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
