Agri- Commodities: 17–21/3/25
Mar 24, 2025
Monday The grain markets opened the week with divergent price movements across wheat contracts. Kansas wheat led the charge with a 3% gain, buoyed by adverse weather conditions in the Southern Plains that worsened crop prospects. In contrast, Chicago wheat posted modest gains and MATIF futures underperformed amid currency pressure from a stronger euro. Winter wheat condition reports showed Kansas falling to 48% good/excellent, while Texas and Oklahoma remained unchanged but still lagged behind last year. U.S. grain inspections for the week were strong for corn and wheat but underwhelming for soybeans. On the oilseed side, February’s NOPA soybean crush fell short of expectations, hitting a five-month low. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest surged ahead of historical pace, and global economic projections from the OECD suggested a slight deceleration in GDP growth due to mounting trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
Tuesday Tuesday saw the wheat rally stall, particularly Kansas wheat, which lost momentum after Monday’s surge. Chicago and MATIF wheat closed lower, as did soybeans and corn, in a subdued session ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy announcement. EU soft wheat exports reached nearly 15 million tons, though some discrepancies persist due to reporting delays. Geopolitical developments added a layer of complexity as Russia agreed to a limited ceasefire following talks with the U.S., though broader peace prospects remain elusive. Iraq approved a large-scale wheat export initiative, but further clarity is awaited.
Midweek, MATIF wheat finally broke higher, supported by Turkey's reversal of wheat import restrictions, a move aimed at boosting flour exports. This policy shift, along with new corn import quotas for feed, helped stabilize grain markets in the region. Iran emerged as a significant wheat buyer, securing 500,000 tons from Russia. While European futures strengthened, U.S. markets softened—particularly Kansas wheat—as traders reassessed weather-related risks. Meanwhile, speculative positions in MATIF contracts reflected bearish sentiment, though prices defied this pressure in the short term. The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling two cuts for later in the year introduced fresh macroeconomic considerations for commodities.
Wednesday Midweek, MATIF wheat finally broke higher, supported by Turkey's reversal of wheat import restrictions, a move aimed at boosting flour exports. This policy shift, along with new corn import quotas for feed, helped stabilize grain markets in the region. Iran emerged as a significant wheat buyer, securing 500,000 tons from Russia. While European futures strengthened, U.S. markets softened—particularly Kansas wheat—as traders reassessed weather-related risks. Meanwhile, speculative positions in MATIF contracts reflected bearish sentiment, though prices defied this pressure in the short term. The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling two cuts for later in the year introduced fresh macroeconomic considerations for commodities.
Thursday On Thursday, U.S. wheat futures dropped sharply following weak weekly export sales, with old crop wheat bookings turning negative. Corn prices bucked the trend, rising on solid sales data and unconfirmed talk of U.S. corn exports to Brazil. The IGC raised global grain production forecasts for both wheat and corn, and introduced bullish preliminary figures for 2025/26. In South America, Argentina’s soybean production outlook was trimmed slightly, while corn estimates held steady. The EU postponed its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to mid-April, extending a window for diplomatic negotiations.
Friday Friday ended the week on a quieter note, with wheat futures trading narrowly and corn under modest pressure. Traders are turning their attention to next week’s USDA reports on stocks and planting intentions. FranceAgriMer kept French wheat conditions steady at 74% good/excellent, a strong showing compared to last year. Turkey’s TMO issued a durum wheat export tender, and the USDA projected a notable shift in Saudi Arabia’s grain import mix for 2025/26, with wheat down and barley up. In Brazil, soybean production and export estimates continued to climb. On the speculative front, funds were net sellers across corn, wheat, and soybeans, reflecting caution ahead of key upcoming data.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
