Agri- Commodities: 17–21/3/25
Mar 24, 2025
Monday The grain markets opened the week with divergent price movements across wheat contracts. Kansas wheat led the charge with a 3% gain, buoyed by adverse weather conditions in the Southern Plains that worsened crop prospects. In contrast, Chicago wheat posted modest gains and MATIF futures underperformed amid currency pressure from a stronger euro. Winter wheat condition reports showed Kansas falling to 48% good/excellent, while Texas and Oklahoma remained unchanged but still lagged behind last year. U.S. grain inspections for the week were strong for corn and wheat but underwhelming for soybeans. On the oilseed side, February’s NOPA soybean crush fell short of expectations, hitting a five-month low. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest surged ahead of historical pace, and global economic projections from the OECD suggested a slight deceleration in GDP growth due to mounting trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
Tuesday Tuesday saw the wheat rally stall, particularly Kansas wheat, which lost momentum after Monday’s surge. Chicago and MATIF wheat closed lower, as did soybeans and corn, in a subdued session ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy announcement. EU soft wheat exports reached nearly 15 million tons, though some discrepancies persist due to reporting delays. Geopolitical developments added a layer of complexity as Russia agreed to a limited ceasefire following talks with the U.S., though broader peace prospects remain elusive. Iraq approved a large-scale wheat export initiative, but further clarity is awaited.
Midweek, MATIF wheat finally broke higher, supported by Turkey's reversal of wheat import restrictions, a move aimed at boosting flour exports. This policy shift, along with new corn import quotas for feed, helped stabilize grain markets in the region. Iran emerged as a significant wheat buyer, securing 500,000 tons from Russia. While European futures strengthened, U.S. markets softened—particularly Kansas wheat—as traders reassessed weather-related risks. Meanwhile, speculative positions in MATIF contracts reflected bearish sentiment, though prices defied this pressure in the short term. The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling two cuts for later in the year introduced fresh macroeconomic considerations for commodities.
Wednesday Midweek, MATIF wheat finally broke higher, supported by Turkey's reversal of wheat import restrictions, a move aimed at boosting flour exports. This policy shift, along with new corn import quotas for feed, helped stabilize grain markets in the region. Iran emerged as a significant wheat buyer, securing 500,000 tons from Russia. While European futures strengthened, U.S. markets softened—particularly Kansas wheat—as traders reassessed weather-related risks. Meanwhile, speculative positions in MATIF contracts reflected bearish sentiment, though prices defied this pressure in the short term. The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling two cuts for later in the year introduced fresh macroeconomic considerations for commodities.
Thursday On Thursday, U.S. wheat futures dropped sharply following weak weekly export sales, with old crop wheat bookings turning negative. Corn prices bucked the trend, rising on solid sales data and unconfirmed talk of U.S. corn exports to Brazil. The IGC raised global grain production forecasts for both wheat and corn, and introduced bullish preliminary figures for 2025/26. In South America, Argentina’s soybean production outlook was trimmed slightly, while corn estimates held steady. The EU postponed its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to mid-April, extending a window for diplomatic negotiations.
Friday Friday ended the week on a quieter note, with wheat futures trading narrowly and corn under modest pressure. Traders are turning their attention to next week’s USDA reports on stocks and planting intentions. FranceAgriMer kept French wheat conditions steady at 74% good/excellent, a strong showing compared to last year. Turkey’s TMO issued a durum wheat export tender, and the USDA projected a notable shift in Saudi Arabia’s grain import mix for 2025/26, with wheat down and barley up. In Brazil, soybean production and export estimates continued to climb. On the speculative front, funds were net sellers across corn, wheat, and soybeans, reflecting caution ahead of key upcoming data.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
17-21/11/25 Agri
Nov 24, 2025
The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.
Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.
Freight
Freight Recap:
20/11/25
Nov 20, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics.
