Agri- Commodities: 17–21/3/25

Monday The grain markets opened the week with divergent price movements across wheat contracts. Kansas wheat led the charge with a 3% gain, buoyed by adverse weather conditions in the Southern Plains that worsened crop prospects. In contrast, Chicago wheat posted modest gains and MATIF futures underperformed amid currency pressure from a stronger euro. Winter wheat condition reports showed Kansas falling to 48% good/excellent, while Texas and Oklahoma remained unchanged but still lagged behind last year. U.S. grain inspections for the week were strong for corn and wheat but underwhelming for soybeans. On the oilseed side, February’s NOPA soybean crush fell short of expectations, hitting a five-month low. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest surged ahead of historical pace, and global economic projections from the OECD suggested a slight deceleration in GDP growth due to mounting trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

Tuesday Tuesday saw the wheat rally stall, particularly Kansas wheat, which lost momentum after Monday’s surge. Chicago and MATIF wheat closed lower, as did soybeans and corn, in a subdued session ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy announcement. EU soft wheat exports reached nearly 15 million tons, though some discrepancies persist due to reporting delays. Geopolitical developments added a layer of complexity as Russia agreed to a limited ceasefire following talks with the U.S., though broader peace prospects remain elusive. Iraq approved a large-scale wheat export initiative, but further clarity is awaited.

Midweek, MATIF wheat finally broke higher, supported by Turkey's reversal of wheat import restrictions, a move aimed at boosting flour exports. This policy shift, along with new corn import quotas for feed, helped stabilize grain markets in the region. Iran emerged as a significant wheat buyer, securing 500,000 tons from Russia. While European futures strengthened, U.S. markets softened—particularly Kansas wheat—as traders reassessed weather-related risks. Meanwhile, speculative positions in MATIF contracts reflected bearish sentiment, though prices defied this pressure in the short term. The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling two cuts for later in the year introduced fresh macroeconomic considerations for commodities.

Wednesday Midweek, MATIF wheat finally broke higher, supported by Turkey's reversal of wheat import restrictions, a move aimed at boosting flour exports. This policy shift, along with new corn import quotas for feed, helped stabilize grain markets in the region. Iran emerged as a significant wheat buyer, securing 500,000 tons from Russia. While European futures strengthened, U.S. markets softened—particularly Kansas wheat—as traders reassessed weather-related risks. Meanwhile, speculative positions in MATIF contracts reflected bearish sentiment, though prices defied this pressure in the short term. The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling two cuts for later in the year introduced fresh macroeconomic considerations for commodities.

Thursday On Thursday, U.S. wheat futures dropped sharply following weak weekly export sales, with old crop wheat bookings turning negative. Corn prices bucked the trend, rising on solid sales data and unconfirmed talk of U.S. corn exports to Brazil. The IGC raised global grain production forecasts for both wheat and corn, and introduced bullish preliminary figures for 2025/26. In South America, Argentina’s soybean production outlook was trimmed slightly, while corn estimates held steady. The EU postponed its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to mid-April, extending a window for diplomatic negotiations.

Friday Friday ended the week on a quieter note, with wheat futures trading narrowly and corn under modest pressure. Traders are turning their attention to next week’s USDA reports on stocks and planting intentions. FranceAgriMer kept French wheat conditions steady at 74% good/excellent, a strong showing compared to last year. Turkey’s TMO issued a durum wheat export tender, and the USDA projected a notable shift in Saudi Arabia’s grain import mix for 2025/26, with wheat down and barley up. In Brazil, soybean production and export estimates continued to climb. On the speculative front, funds were net sellers across corn, wheat, and soybeans, reflecting caution ahead of key upcoming data.