Agri- Commodities: 24–28/3/25

Monday Monday opened with cautious optimism across financial markets as hopes rose that President Trump might ease proposed tariffs, calming trade war fears. However, grains were restrained, with only marginal price movements in corn and soybeans. Wheat was notably under pressure, weighed down by expanded Russian crop estimates and an improved EU production outlook. The latest JRC MARS Bulletin projected a 7.5% increase in EU soft wheat yields and a substantial recovery in planted area, pointing to a possible 17 mmt year-on-year production gain. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat ratings improved in Kansas and Texas but deteriorated in Oklahoma. IKAR raised its Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt, while U.S. weekly export inspections revealed decent performance for corn and soybeans, though wheat lagged despite beating expectations.

Tuesday On Tuesday, markets retreated further amid reports of a tentative Black Sea ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine. This development sparked expectations of lower war-risk premiums on regional exports, pressuring global wheat and corn prices. The U.S. announced parallel agreements with both parties to ensure maritime safety, with broader diplomatic and trade implications. Ukraine’s export pace suggested steady shipments ahead, and fresh international tenders from Jordan and Syria highlighted continued global demand. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports ticked higher, and Sovecon revised down its Russian export forecast for 2024/25 but nudged up projections for 2025/26.

Wednesday Wednesday saw MATIF wheat rebound slightly on technical buying and a weaker euro, though underlying fundamentals remained fragile. Confusion over the Black Sea ceasefire deepened after Russia demanded sanctions relief as a precondition for any formal deal. Meanwhile, positioning data showed non-commercial traders reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat while continuing to exit rapeseed longs. Attention turned to Friday’s upcoming USDA reports, with analysts anticipating increased corn acreage and lower soybean plantings, alongside year-over-year stock adjustments.

Thursday Thursday brought a mixed session, with Chicago wheat and corn continuing their descent—Chicago wheat hit new contract lows—amid favorable U.S. weather and disappointing export sales. U.S. weekly wheat sales were particularly weak at just 112k tons. Argentina’s harvest progress aligned closely with USDA figures, offering no surprises. Meanwhile, the EU Commission projected significant year-on-year production increases in wheat, barley, and corn for 2025/26, along with a 12 mmt improvement in the region’s net grain flow.

Friday Friday was volatile but ended on a relatively stable note despite broader equity market declines driven by inflation concerns and plunging consumer sentiment. Grain markets recovered some early losses, with traders bracing for the USDA's key quarterly stocks and planting reports. Fund positioning revealed a strong bearish bias, particularly in wheat. Corn net long position was also cut, reflecting deepening pessimism ahead of the reports.