Agri- Commodities: 24–28/3/25
Mar 31, 2025
Monday Monday opened with cautious optimism across financial markets as hopes rose that President Trump might ease proposed tariffs, calming trade war fears. However, grains were restrained, with only marginal price movements in corn and soybeans. Wheat was notably under pressure, weighed down by expanded Russian crop estimates and an improved EU production outlook. The latest JRC MARS Bulletin projected a 7.5% increase in EU soft wheat yields and a substantial recovery in planted area, pointing to a possible 17 mmt year-on-year production gain. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat ratings improved in Kansas and Texas but deteriorated in Oklahoma. IKAR raised its Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt, while U.S. weekly export inspections revealed decent performance for corn and soybeans, though wheat lagged despite beating expectations.
Tuesday On Tuesday, markets retreated further amid reports of a tentative Black Sea ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine. This development sparked expectations of lower war-risk premiums on regional exports, pressuring global wheat and corn prices. The U.S. announced parallel agreements with both parties to ensure maritime safety, with broader diplomatic and trade implications. Ukraine’s export pace suggested steady shipments ahead, and fresh international tenders from Jordan and Syria highlighted continued global demand. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports ticked higher, and Sovecon revised down its Russian export forecast for 2024/25 but nudged up projections for 2025/26.
Wednesday Wednesday saw MATIF wheat rebound slightly on technical buying and a weaker euro, though underlying fundamentals remained fragile. Confusion over the Black Sea ceasefire deepened after Russia demanded sanctions relief as a precondition for any formal deal. Meanwhile, positioning data showed non-commercial traders reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat while continuing to exit rapeseed longs. Attention turned to Friday’s upcoming USDA reports, with analysts anticipating increased corn acreage and lower soybean plantings, alongside year-over-year stock adjustments.
Thursday Thursday brought a mixed session, with Chicago wheat and corn continuing their descent—Chicago wheat hit new contract lows—amid favorable U.S. weather and disappointing export sales. U.S. weekly wheat sales were particularly weak at just 112k tons. Argentina’s harvest progress aligned closely with USDA figures, offering no surprises. Meanwhile, the EU Commission projected significant year-on-year production increases in wheat, barley, and corn for 2025/26, along with a 12 mmt improvement in the region’s net grain flow.
Friday Friday was volatile but ended on a relatively stable note despite broader equity market declines driven by inflation concerns and plunging consumer sentiment. Grain markets recovered some early losses, with traders bracing for the USDA's key quarterly stocks and planting reports. Fund positioning revealed a strong bearish bias, particularly in wheat. Corn net long position was also cut, reflecting deepening pessimism ahead of the reports.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
13/11/25
Nov 13, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
03-07/11/25 Agri
Nov 10, 2025
Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%.
Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate.
Freight
Freight Recap:
06/11/25
Nov 06, 2025
The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
27-31/10/25 Agri
Nov 03, 2025
Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data.
Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued.
