Agri- Commodities: 24–28/3/25
Mar 31, 2025
Monday Monday opened with cautious optimism across financial markets as hopes rose that President Trump might ease proposed tariffs, calming trade war fears. However, grains were restrained, with only marginal price movements in corn and soybeans. Wheat was notably under pressure, weighed down by expanded Russian crop estimates and an improved EU production outlook. The latest JRC MARS Bulletin projected a 7.5% increase in EU soft wheat yields and a substantial recovery in planted area, pointing to a possible 17 mmt year-on-year production gain. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat ratings improved in Kansas and Texas but deteriorated in Oklahoma. IKAR raised its Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt, while U.S. weekly export inspections revealed decent performance for corn and soybeans, though wheat lagged despite beating expectations.
Tuesday On Tuesday, markets retreated further amid reports of a tentative Black Sea ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine. This development sparked expectations of lower war-risk premiums on regional exports, pressuring global wheat and corn prices. The U.S. announced parallel agreements with both parties to ensure maritime safety, with broader diplomatic and trade implications. Ukraine’s export pace suggested steady shipments ahead, and fresh international tenders from Jordan and Syria highlighted continued global demand. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports ticked higher, and Sovecon revised down its Russian export forecast for 2024/25 but nudged up projections for 2025/26.
Wednesday Wednesday saw MATIF wheat rebound slightly on technical buying and a weaker euro, though underlying fundamentals remained fragile. Confusion over the Black Sea ceasefire deepened after Russia demanded sanctions relief as a precondition for any formal deal. Meanwhile, positioning data showed non-commercial traders reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat while continuing to exit rapeseed longs. Attention turned to Friday’s upcoming USDA reports, with analysts anticipating increased corn acreage and lower soybean plantings, alongside year-over-year stock adjustments.
Thursday Thursday brought a mixed session, with Chicago wheat and corn continuing their descent—Chicago wheat hit new contract lows—amid favorable U.S. weather and disappointing export sales. U.S. weekly wheat sales were particularly weak at just 112k tons. Argentina’s harvest progress aligned closely with USDA figures, offering no surprises. Meanwhile, the EU Commission projected significant year-on-year production increases in wheat, barley, and corn for 2025/26, along with a 12 mmt improvement in the region’s net grain flow.
Friday Friday was volatile but ended on a relatively stable note despite broader equity market declines driven by inflation concerns and plunging consumer sentiment. Grain markets recovered some early losses, with traders bracing for the USDA's key quarterly stocks and planting reports. Fund positioning revealed a strong bearish bias, particularly in wheat. Corn net long position was also cut, reflecting deepening pessimism ahead of the reports.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
