Agri- Commodities: 6-10/1/25

Jan 13, 2025

Monday, grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.

On Tuesday, a quiet session saw mixed price movements as traders monitored weather updates and awaited Federal Reserve minutes. Rain forecast in Argentina brought some relief, though concerns lingered. On the trade front, Jordan secured a wheat purchase at competitive prices, while EU wheat exports showed improvement but remained below last year's levels. Ahead of Friday's USDA report, analysts anticipated reductions in U.S. corn production and ending stocks, while global stock changes were expected to be minimal. USDA's grain stock estimates and winter wheat seeding data drew particular interest, with wide-ranging acreage projections hinting at potential surprises.

Wednesday CBOT grains softened under pressure from a stronger dollar and improved Argentine weather. Market sentiment was also shaped by Trump-era policy speculation, including universal tariffs and their implications. Non-commercial traders adjusted positions, notably reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat and long positions in rapeseed. On the international stage, Jordan and Tunisia issued new tenders. Domestically, the Federal Reserve expressed cautious optimism in its minutes, highlighting uncertainties around inflation and trade policies.

Thursday saw wheat prices decline while corn and soybeans posted slight gains ahead of a potentially impactful USDA WASDE report, with U.S. export sales data delayed until Friday. In South America, soybean and corn planting progressed to 97% and 92% completion, though crop conditions weakened. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are forecasted to persist through early 2025 before transitioning to ENSO-neutral by spring. On the trade front, Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of feed barley for February to mid-March shipment.

End of the week, the USDA report delivered bullish surprises for corn and soybeans, leading to significant price surges, while wheat lagged. The report featured a sharp cut in U.S. corn yield estimates, tightening domestic stock-to-use ratios. International revisions included reduced Chinese import needs and lower wheat export estimates for Russia and Ukraine, reflecting geopolitical and logistical challenges. Export sales data painted a bleak picture, with figures for all major grains falling below expectations.

Weekly Recaps

Commodities

Agri- Commodities:
10-14/2/25 AGRI

Feb 17, 2025

Wheat prices diverged as Euronext gained while CBOT declined. MATIF wheat found support from Algeria’s tender, lower Russian wheat crop projections, and a weaker euro. IKAR lowered its 2024/2025 Russian wheat export estimate to 43.0 mmt and production estimate to 77–87 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices rose to $245/ton FOB for March delivery. Algeria sought 50k tons of soft milling wheat for April shipment. U.S. weekly export inspections showed strong wheat volumes, while President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum heightened trade tensions. Despite this, Mexico’s corn purchases remained active, with the USDA reporting private sales of 365k tons for 2024/2025 delivery.

Freight

Freight Recap:
13/02/25

Feb 06, 2025

Atlantic: The market remained under pressure with weak demand and an oversupply of tonnage, particularly in the North Atlantic. Limited fresh cargo made it difficult for owners to secure strong rates, with charterers holding the upper hand in negotiations. In the South Atlantic, sentiment remained negative, with further corrections for forward positions, particularly for vessels ballasting to East Coast South America.

Commodities

Agri- Commodities:
3-7/2/25 AGRI

Feb 10, 2025

Grain markets opened on the defensive but rebounded after news broke that Mexico would delay imposing tariffs, following a last-minute agreement with Canada. This pause suggests tariffs are being used as a negotiation tactic rather than an end goal. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Trump agreed to suspend tariffs for a month in exchange for Mexico reinforcing its northern border. Similarly, the U.S. and Canada suspended tariffs temporarily, contingent on strengthened Canadian border security. However, China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, crude oil, and agricultural equipment, escalating trade tensions. Ukraine’s grain exports rose to 25.77 mmt, reflecting increased wheat and barley shipments, though corn exports declined. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean figures, but wheat lagged. Russian wheat prices continued their upward trajectory, while Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose, reinforcing the European Central Bank's cautious stance on rate cuts.

Freight

Freight Recap:
06/02/25

Feb 06, 2025

Atlantic: Strong demand from South America pushed rates higher, with fronthaul routes tightening tonnage. The market remained firm for February-March arrivals, though long-term gains may be capped by weaker coal demand and slower economic growth.

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