Agri- Commodities: 6-10/1/25
Jan 13, 2025
Monday, grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
On Tuesday, a quiet session saw mixed price movements as traders monitored weather updates and awaited Federal Reserve minutes. Rain forecast in Argentina brought some relief, though concerns lingered. On the trade front, Jordan secured a wheat purchase at competitive prices, while EU wheat exports showed improvement but remained below last year's levels. Ahead of Friday's USDA report, analysts anticipated reductions in U.S. corn production and ending stocks, while global stock changes were expected to be minimal. USDA's grain stock estimates and winter wheat seeding data drew particular interest, with wide-ranging acreage projections hinting at potential surprises.
Wednesday CBOT grains softened under pressure from a stronger dollar and improved Argentine weather. Market sentiment was also shaped by Trump-era policy speculation, including universal tariffs and their implications. Non-commercial traders adjusted positions, notably reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat and long positions in rapeseed. On the international stage, Jordan and Tunisia issued new tenders. Domestically, the Federal Reserve expressed cautious optimism in its minutes, highlighting uncertainties around inflation and trade policies.
Thursday saw wheat prices decline while corn and soybeans posted slight gains ahead of a potentially impactful USDA WASDE report, with U.S. export sales data delayed until Friday. In South America, soybean and corn planting progressed to 97% and 92% completion, though crop conditions weakened. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are forecasted to persist through early 2025 before transitioning to ENSO-neutral by spring. On the trade front, Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of feed barley for February to mid-March shipment.
End of the week, the USDA report delivered bullish surprises for corn and soybeans, leading to significant price surges, while wheat lagged. The report featured a sharp cut in U.S. corn yield estimates, tightening domestic stock-to-use ratios. International revisions included reduced Chinese import needs and lower wheat export estimates for Russia and Ukraine, reflecting geopolitical and logistical challenges. Export sales data painted a bleak picture, with figures for all major grains falling below expectations.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/12/25
Dec 18, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
08-12/12/25 Agri
Dec 15, 2025
CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Freight
Freight Recap:
11/12/25
Dec 11, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
01-05/12/25 Agri
Dec 08, 2025
USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.
