Agri- Commodities: 6-10/1/25
Jan 13, 2025
Monday, grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
On Tuesday, a quiet session saw mixed price movements as traders monitored weather updates and awaited Federal Reserve minutes. Rain forecast in Argentina brought some relief, though concerns lingered. On the trade front, Jordan secured a wheat purchase at competitive prices, while EU wheat exports showed improvement but remained below last year's levels. Ahead of Friday's USDA report, analysts anticipated reductions in U.S. corn production and ending stocks, while global stock changes were expected to be minimal. USDA's grain stock estimates and winter wheat seeding data drew particular interest, with wide-ranging acreage projections hinting at potential surprises.
Wednesday CBOT grains softened under pressure from a stronger dollar and improved Argentine weather. Market sentiment was also shaped by Trump-era policy speculation, including universal tariffs and their implications. Non-commercial traders adjusted positions, notably reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat and long positions in rapeseed. On the international stage, Jordan and Tunisia issued new tenders. Domestically, the Federal Reserve expressed cautious optimism in its minutes, highlighting uncertainties around inflation and trade policies.
Thursday saw wheat prices decline while corn and soybeans posted slight gains ahead of a potentially impactful USDA WASDE report, with U.S. export sales data delayed until Friday. In South America, soybean and corn planting progressed to 97% and 92% completion, though crop conditions weakened. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are forecasted to persist through early 2025 before transitioning to ENSO-neutral by spring. On the trade front, Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of feed barley for February to mid-March shipment.
End of the week, the USDA report delivered bullish surprises for corn and soybeans, leading to significant price surges, while wheat lagged. The report featured a sharp cut in U.S. corn yield estimates, tightening domestic stock-to-use ratios. International revisions included reduced Chinese import needs and lower wheat export estimates for Russia and Ukraine, reflecting geopolitical and logistical challenges. Export sales data painted a bleak picture, with figures for all major grains falling below expectations.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
18/04/25
Apr 18, 2025
The Atlantic market saw further pressure with rates declining across most routes. Despite some vessel movement toward South America on hopes of stronger grain activity, this has not translated into stronger sentiment. The region remains oversupplied, and charterers continue to dictate terms, keeping offers low and confidence weak.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
7/4- 11/4/25 Agri
Apr 15, 2025
Grain markets began the week relatively stable, despite heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets. The threat of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China remained a significant concern, as President Trump proposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports. In the grain markets, U.S. export inspections for soybeans and corn were strong, while wheat inspections fell short of expectations.
Freight
Freight Recap:
10/04/25
Apr 10, 2025
Atlantic: The market remained under pressure with falling rates driven by oversupply and limited fresh demand. While some activity was seen out of South America, it wasn’t enough to shift sentiment. Charterers maintained control, and offers remained far apart from bids, especially on transatlantic routes. Overall, market participants remained cautious, with attention also diverted by global financial uncertainty.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
31/3- 4/4/25 Agri
Apr 07, 2025
Grain markets kicked off the week digesting the USDA’s planting intentions report, which offered mild support to wheat and modest pressure on corn. However, corn still managed to finish higher for the old crop, while soybeans slipped slightly. Export inspections showed strong performance for corn and solid showings for wheat and soybeans. Winter wheat conditions held steady in Kansas but declined in Texas and Oklahoma. Market attention began shifting toward President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement, raising questions over potential trade fallout.
