Agri- Commodities: 6-10/1/25
Jan 13, 2025
Monday, grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
On Tuesday, a quiet session saw mixed price movements as traders monitored weather updates and awaited Federal Reserve minutes. Rain forecast in Argentina brought some relief, though concerns lingered. On the trade front, Jordan secured a wheat purchase at competitive prices, while EU wheat exports showed improvement but remained below last year's levels. Ahead of Friday's USDA report, analysts anticipated reductions in U.S. corn production and ending stocks, while global stock changes were expected to be minimal. USDA's grain stock estimates and winter wheat seeding data drew particular interest, with wide-ranging acreage projections hinting at potential surprises.
Wednesday CBOT grains softened under pressure from a stronger dollar and improved Argentine weather. Market sentiment was also shaped by Trump-era policy speculation, including universal tariffs and their implications. Non-commercial traders adjusted positions, notably reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat and long positions in rapeseed. On the international stage, Jordan and Tunisia issued new tenders. Domestically, the Federal Reserve expressed cautious optimism in its minutes, highlighting uncertainties around inflation and trade policies.
Thursday saw wheat prices decline while corn and soybeans posted slight gains ahead of a potentially impactful USDA WASDE report, with U.S. export sales data delayed until Friday. In South America, soybean and corn planting progressed to 97% and 92% completion, though crop conditions weakened. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are forecasted to persist through early 2025 before transitioning to ENSO-neutral by spring. On the trade front, Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of feed barley for February to mid-March shipment.
End of the week, the USDA report delivered bullish surprises for corn and soybeans, leading to significant price surges, while wheat lagged. The report featured a sharp cut in U.S. corn yield estimates, tightening domestic stock-to-use ratios. International revisions included reduced Chinese import needs and lower wheat export estimates for Russia and Ukraine, reflecting geopolitical and logistical challenges. Export sales data painted a bleak picture, with figures for all major grains falling below expectations.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/6/25 Agri
Jun 16, 2025
Grain markets were pulled in opposing directions throughout Week 24, as favorable crop prospects, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. policy developments generated volatile trading. The week opened with a sharp sell-off in corn and wheat, as improved U.S. crop conditions and benign weather forecasts reinforced expectations of ample supplies. Corn and wheat both fell more than 2% on Monday, effectively wiping out prior gains. U.S. crop ratings surprised to the upside, with corn at 71% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. Concurrently, stronger forecasts for Russian and Romanian wheat harvests added further pressure, while China’s surging soybean imports – largely sourced from Brazil – highlighted its continued pivot away from U.S. origin.
Freight
Freight Recap:
12/06/25
Jun 12, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market strengthened further, particularly in the North where limited tonnage availability led owners to raise offers.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
2-6/6/25 Agri
Jun 09, 2025
Grain markets opened June on a mixed footing, with wheat futures initially rallying on renewed geopolitical fears following escalations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the rally soon fizzled as U.S. crop progress data turned sentiment more bearish. Spring and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded expectations, with plantings and harvests advancing steadily. Meanwhile, USDA export inspections showed strong corn loadings, but soybeans and wheat lagged.
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
