Agri- Commodities: 6-10/1/25
Jan 13, 2025
Monday, grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
On Tuesday, a quiet session saw mixed price movements as traders monitored weather updates and awaited Federal Reserve minutes. Rain forecast in Argentina brought some relief, though concerns lingered. On the trade front, Jordan secured a wheat purchase at competitive prices, while EU wheat exports showed improvement but remained below last year's levels. Ahead of Friday's USDA report, analysts anticipated reductions in U.S. corn production and ending stocks, while global stock changes were expected to be minimal. USDA's grain stock estimates and winter wheat seeding data drew particular interest, with wide-ranging acreage projections hinting at potential surprises.
Wednesday CBOT grains softened under pressure from a stronger dollar and improved Argentine weather. Market sentiment was also shaped by Trump-era policy speculation, including universal tariffs and their implications. Non-commercial traders adjusted positions, notably reducing short exposure in MATIF wheat and long positions in rapeseed. On the international stage, Jordan and Tunisia issued new tenders. Domestically, the Federal Reserve expressed cautious optimism in its minutes, highlighting uncertainties around inflation and trade policies.
Thursday saw wheat prices decline while corn and soybeans posted slight gains ahead of a potentially impactful USDA WASDE report, with U.S. export sales data delayed until Friday. In South America, soybean and corn planting progressed to 97% and 92% completion, though crop conditions weakened. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are forecasted to persist through early 2025 before transitioning to ENSO-neutral by spring. On the trade front, Tunisia purchased 75,000 tons of feed barley for February to mid-March shipment.
End of the week, the USDA report delivered bullish surprises for corn and soybeans, leading to significant price surges, while wheat lagged. The report featured a sharp cut in U.S. corn yield estimates, tightening domestic stock-to-use ratios. International revisions included reduced Chinese import needs and lower wheat export estimates for Russia and Ukraine, reflecting geopolitical and logistical challenges. Export sales data painted a bleak picture, with figures for all major grains falling below expectations.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
