Agri- Commodities: 3-7/2/25
Feb 10, 2025
Monday Grain markets opened on the defensive but rebounded after news broke that Mexico would delay imposing tariffs, following a last-minute agreement with Canada. This pause suggests tariffs are being used as a negotiation tactic rather than an end goal. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Trump agreed to suspend tariffs for a month in exchange for Mexico reinforcing its northern border. Similarly, the U.S. and Canada suspended tariffs temporarily, contingent on strengthened Canadian border security. However, China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, crude oil, and agricultural equipment, escalating trade tensions. Ukraine’s grain exports rose to 25.77 mmt, reflecting increased wheat and barley shipments, though corn exports declined. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean figures, but wheat lagged. Russian wheat prices continued their upward trajectory, while Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose, reinforcing the European Central Bank's cautious stance on rate cuts.
Tuesday Grain prices climbed further as immediate trade war fears subsided. Chicago wheat approached three-month highs, while corn and soybeans tested recent peaks. MATIF wheat presented mixed results, influenced by a stronger EUR/USD exchange rate. The scheduled call between Trump and Xi Jinping was canceled, with Trump stating no urgency to engage, framing tariffs as an initial move in ongoing disputes. Ukraine explored establishing a logistics hub in Egypt to streamline African exports, while EU soft wheat exports increased to 12.51 mmt. The USDA reported 132k tons of corn sold to South Korea, and Bangladesh issued a wheat tender.
Wednesday Despite briefly touching multi-month highs, CBOT prices closed lower as soybean and wheat markets responded to rains in Argentina and China's decision to delay or resell wheat purchases. China redirected 600k tons of wheat imports due to strong domestic harvests, pressuring global prices. Southern Argentina received beneficial rainfall, but northern areas remained dry, with potential relief forecasted. Iran and Jordan canceled recent tenders, while Algeria’s ONAB sought new grain purchases. The USDA reported 330k tons of corn sold to Mexico for 2025/2026. Non-commercial participants significantly reduced net short positions in MATIF wheat, signaling shifting market sentiment.
Thursday Corn and soybeans held steady, while U.S. wheat prices surged to new multi-month highs, supported by cold weather forecasts in Russia. MATIF wheat rebounded sharply. USTR nominee Jamieson Greer emphasized expanding agricultural market access, focusing on India and Turkey. Mexico lifted restrictions on genetically modified corn imports for food and feed but maintained a ban on planting. Argentina’s crop ratings deteriorated, with both corn and soybeans falling to 25% and 17% good/excellent, respectively. Statistics Canada’s upcoming report was anticipated to show higher wheat stocks but lower canola and barley inventories. Tunisia and Jordan issued new barley tenders. U.S. export sales were strong for corn, solid for wheat, but weak for soybeans.
Friday Grain prices softened, except for nearby MATIF wheat contracts, but ended the week with gains. Trade wars and weather remain the dominant market drivers ahead of the USDA report and U.S. inflation data next week. Trump announced plans for "reciprocal tariffs," shifting from a universal tariff approach. Russia allocated most of its export quota, with Grain Gates securing a significant share. Tunisia purchased 75k tons of feed barley at higher prices, reflecting a bullish trend. Statistics Canada reported wheat stocks above expectations, while canola stocks fell sharply. The U.S. added 143,000 jobs in January, with unemployment dropping to 4%, suggesting the Federal Reserve will hold off on immediate rate changes. Funds increased their net long positions modestly in corn and soybeans, while covering short positions in wheat.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
04/12/25
Dec 04, 2025
The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
24-28/11/25 Agri
Dec 01, 2025
Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average.
USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/11/25
Nov 27, 2025
The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
17-21/11/25 Agri
Nov 24, 2025
The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt.
Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow.
