Agri- Commodities: 10-14/2/25

Monday Wheat prices diverged as Euronext gained while CBOT declined. MATIF wheat found support from Algeria’s tender, lower Russian wheat crop projections, and a weaker euro. IKAR lowered its 2024/2025 Russian wheat export estimate to 43.0 mmt and production estimate to 77–87 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian wheat prices rose to $245/ton FOB for March delivery. Algeria sought 50k tons of soft milling wheat for April shipment. U.S. weekly export inspections showed strong wheat volumes, while President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum heightened trade tensions. Despite this, Mexico’s corn purchases remained active, with the USDA reporting private sales of 365k tons for 2024/2025 delivery.

Tuesday CBOT prices strengthened ahead of the USDA report but erased gains afterward. The report contained few surprises, with focus shifting to Algeria’s tender, weather patterns, and potential U.S. policy shifts. The USDA projected China’s 2024/2025 grain imports at 27.5 mmt, significantly lower year-over-year. The EU reported soft wheat exports at 13.0 mmt as of February 9, though real volumes may be closer to 15.6 mmt. Meanwhile, EU officials threatened countermeasures against the U.S. over newly imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Wednesday Corn prices held firm while grains and oilseeds declined. Aggressive offers in Algeria’s tender pressured MATIF wheat, while soybeans fell on improved South American weather. Algeria reportedly purchased 360–480k tons of wheat at $262–$264/ton C&F. FranceAgriMer adjusted its soft wheat export estimates and ending stocks projections. The Rosario Grains Exchange pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 47.5 mmt, lower than the USDA’s 49 mmt. In the U.S., January inflation rose 0.5%, dampening hopes for Federal Reserve easing.

Thursday Prices were mixed as MATIF wheat fell while U.S. wheat futures, led by Kansas wheat, rose on a cold snap. Corn prices held near highs on strong U.S. export demand. Australia’s GIWA raised its wheat crop forecast to 12.45 mmt, suggesting the national total may exceed 33 mmt. Saudi Arabia issued a tender for 595k tons of wheat, with offers due February 14. U.S. export sales showed strong corn demand but weak soybean activity. Brazil’s Conab lifted its corn forecast to 122.01 mmt but trimmed its soybean outlook due to drought damage. President Trump signaled potential reciprocal tariffs targeting key trading partners, while his negotiations with Putin and Zelensky on Ukraine’s war remained inconclusive. The Russian ruble strengthened, making Russian wheat more expensive but lowering export taxes.

Friday U.S. wheat futures surged 4% to their highest levels since October as funds covered short positions ahead of the long weekend. MATIF wheat also rose but remained cautious pending Saudi Arabia’s tender results. The EU planned new import restrictions on U.S. food products to align with its agricultural standards. FranceAgriMer reported improved soft wheat conditions, with 73% rated good/excellent. The USDA confirmed private corn sales to Colombia. Funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat but cut positions in corn and soybeans, with soybean net longs halved to 28.5k contracts.