Agri- Commodities: 17-21/2/25

Monday saw a quiet session with CBOT closed for a U.S. holiday, leading to lower trading volumes in Euronext futures. Despite Friday’s rally in U.S. wheat, MATIF milling wheat futures ended weaker. The Saudi wheat tender was a key highlight, with the country purchasing 920k tons—well above the initial 595k ton target—while Russian wheat prices firmed slightly at $247 per ton FOB. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean harvest remained behind schedule, at 23% complete, compared to 32% last year.

On Tuesday, CBOT prices rebounded, supported by strong U.S. corn inspections and winterkill concerns for wheat. EU soft wheat exports reached 13.3 MMT, though data gaps suggest the actual year-on-year decline is closer to 4.5–5.0 MMT. U.S. weekly export inspections exceeded expectations for corn but fell short for wheat and soybeans. Additionally, NOPA reported a January soybean crush of 200.4 million bushels, below market forecasts.

Midweek, Wednesday saw a broad market pullback, particularly in U.S. wheat, as cold-weather risks diminished. Non-commercial traders covered a significant portion of their short positions in MATIF milling wheat, reducing their net short position from 52.4k to 37.5k contracts. Meanwhile, funds continued to add to their net long position in MATIF rapeseed. In international trade, Bangladesh’s wheat tender drew a lowest offer of $295.21 per ton, while Jordan secured 60k tons of feed barley at a price lower than its previous purchase.

On Thursday, market action was mixed. Wheat declined while soybeans found support from renewed heat risks in Argentina and speculation about a new U.S.-China trade deal. The International Grains Council (IGC) adjusted its global grain production estimates, raising wheat by 1 MMT to 797 MMT but lowering corn by 3 MMT to 1,216 MMT due to South American crop concerns. Meanwhile, India tightened wheat stock limits for traders, aiming to curb inflation ahead of the upcoming harvest.

Friday closed the week with downward pressure on corn, as funds likely took profits after an extended rally. Despite broader market volatility, prices across grains held within a 1% range. French soft wheat conditions improved slightly, with 74% rated good/excellent, up from 69% last year. U.S. weekly export sales were robust across wheat, corn, and soybeans, meeting or exceeding expectations. Speculators aggressively covered CBOT wheat shorts, reducing their net short position by a quarter, while adding to net long positions in corn. Looking ahead, the USDA’s Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 27-28 will provide the first official projections for the 2025/26 marketing year, with a key focus on expected acreage shifts between corn and soybeans.