Agri- Commodities: 24-28/2/25

Monday: The week opened on a weak note, with grain prices under pressure. Weather conditions improved in key regions, as the cold spell in the U.S. receded, and heavy rains in Argentina provided relief. Russian wheat FOB prices edged higher, surpassing the second-nearest MATIF contract for the first time in nearly a year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean production estimate was revised lower by AgRural, signaling a potential end to the recent trend of upward adjustments. The EU crop monitoring committee reported generally stable conditions but noted irreversible losses in parts of Ukraine, Morocco, and Algeria. On the demand front, Algeria and Iran issued tenders for corn, barley, and soymeal.

Tuesday: Wheat markets showed mixed performance. While nearby MATIF wheat closed slightly higher, U.S. wheat futures extended their losses, erasing the weather premium added last week. The euro’s strength widened the MATIF-CBOT spread. Algeria purchased 150-170k tons of soft wheat at prices ~$10/ton higher than previous deals, while Bangladesh secured 50k tons of milling wheat at $295.21/ton CIF. Jordan, however, passed on its latest wheat tender. Russian wheat export forecasts were lowered. A strengthening Russian ruble is making Russian wheat less competitive, though lower export taxes may offset some of the impact.

Wednesday: Grain and oilseed prices remained under pressure ahead of the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum. Market expectations pointed to an acreage increase for U.S. corn and wheat, while soybean acreage was projected to decline. President Trump’s mixed messages on tariffs for Mexico and Canada created uncertainty. Analyst polls suggested U.S. corn area could rise by 3 million acres, wheat by 0.6 million, and soybeans could decline by 2.7 million. Corn and wheat stocks were seen increasing, while soybean stocks were expected to hold steady. Non-commercial traders modestly expanded their net short in MATIF wheat, while speculators extended their record-long position in MATIF rapeseed.

Thursday: Markets tumbled following the USDA Forum’s bearish acreage projections. U.S. wheat and corn futures plunged, while soybeans, initially supported by the outlook, were dragged lower by weakness in the other grains. Euronext wheat held firmer, supported by a weaker euro and cuts to Russian export forecasts. IKAR analysts trimmed their Russian wheat export forecast and narrowed their production range. U.S. weekly export sales were disappointing, with wheat and corn falling below expectations. Tunisia entered the market for 25k tons of wheat, while the USDA Forum reinforced expectations of a sharp acreage shift from soybeans to corn in the U.S. Ukraine is also expected to favor corn over oilseeds in its upcoming planting season.

Friday: The week ended on a sour note, with U.S. wheat and corn futures failing to post a single positive session. MATIF milling wheat was the only bright spot, supported by a slight deterioration in French soft wheat conditions. Corn prices have corrected ~10% from their February highs as bullish factors fade, and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy persists. Funds' positioning suggests they remain heavily long in corn. Tunisia secured 25k tons of wheat at $262.12/ton C&F, while the USDA confirmed private soybean oil sales. Despite this, soybean oil futures slumped nearly 3%. Speculators were net sellers in corn, soybeans, and wheat, though the positioning adjustments were milder than expected.