Weekly Freight Recap: 10/04/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market stabilised this week, though the recovery remains uneven. Panamax and Supramax showed improvement, while Handysize continued to lag behind.

The main macro shift came from bunkers, which fell sharply following ceasefire headlines. This removed one of the key supports that had been holding freight in weaker regions. However, geopolitical risk has not disappeared. Disruption in the Middle East continues to affect routing and pricing visibility, particularly around the Arabian Gulf.

At the same time, underlying commodity dynamics remain important. South America continues to benefit from stronger soybean competitiveness, helping support Atlantic demand despite softer fuel costs.

Handysize

Handysize remained soft, with continued pressure across the Atlantic and some spillover into Europe.

The US Gulf is still the weakest region, with persistent oversupply and limited prompt cargo keeping rates under pressure. This imbalance continues to favour charterers.

South America is relatively firmer, supported by ongoing soybean demand and tighter vessel availability compared to other Atlantic regions. However, the market is not tight, and execution remains uneven due to timing disruptions.

Europe and the Mediterranean remain soft, with available tonnage outweighing demand. Activity has improved slightly, but not enough to shift sentiment.

The Black Sea continues to move without a clear trend, with selective demand and ongoing geopolitical caution influencing decisions.

Overall, Handysize remains structurally oversupplied, with only pockets of relative strength.

Supramax

Supramax improved this week, but the recovery remains selective rather than broad-based.

The US Gulf showed the clearest improvement, supported by better enquiry and reduced prompt pressure. While the market is still competitive, sentiment has strengthened compared to late March.

The South Atlantic continues to hold firmer levels, supported by steady cargo flow and a more balanced supply position.

In contrast, Europe and the Black Sea remain under pressure, with limited cargo availability and continued competition among owners.

Overall, Supramax is no longer declining, but the market is not yet tight enough to support a sustained rally.

Panamax

Panamax improved modestly and remains the most balanced segment.

South America continues to offer the strongest employment, supported by soybean exports and favourable positioning into China. This remains the key driver of Atlantic strength.

The North Atlantic has stabilised, with some improvement in demand, though not enough to create tight conditions.

The US Gulf remains secondary, with steady but unspectacular demand and no clear premium emerging.

The Pacific remains supported by consistent cargo flow, helping maintain overall balance.

Panamax is therefore improving, but still operating in a stable rather than bullish environment.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin Handysize remains under pressure, especially in the US Gulf and Europe. Supramax and Panamax are improving, with South America continuing to lead.

Pacific Basin Markets are stable to slightly firmer, supported by steady cargo programs. Panamax shows the most consistent support.

Indian Ocean Activity remains steady but not strong enough to tighten supply significantly.

Market Drivers

Bunkers and energy Fuel prices fell sharply, removing a key support for freight. Lower bunker costs are easing voyage calculations but also reducing upward pressure on rates.

Security and routing Conditions around the Arabian Gulf remain difficult to price. Restricted access continues to limit normal market functioning and adds uncertainty to routing decisions.

Commodities and trade flows Brazil continues to benefit from stronger soybean competitiveness, supporting South American export flows. This remains a key driver of relative strength in the Atlantic.

Europe No major new disruptions emerged. Market direction continues to be driven primarily by supply and demand rather than operational issues.

Outlook

Handysize is expected to remain under pressure, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply persists.

Supramax is stabilising, with improving conditions in the US Gulf and South America, but still lacks the strength for a broad recovery.

Panamax remains the most balanced segment, supported by South American grain and steady Pacific demand, though not yet tight.

Across all segments, the market has stabilised but remains sensitive. With bunker support fading and geopolitical risk still present, further gains will depend on whether demand continues to build.