Weekly Freight Recap: 22/05/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the strongest gains were concentrated in fewer routes and vessel classes. Panamax continued to lead the market, Capesize stayed elevated from a high base, Supramax held firm in selected Atlantic and Pacific pockets, while Handysize weakened in South America and Europe but remained supported in the Pacific.

The market is now being driven more by route scarcity and vessel positioning than by one broad basin trend.

Middle East disruption remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz is still heavily constrained in practice, and owners continue pricing in routing risk and tighter effective vessel supply even when crude softens on negotiation headlines.

Handysize

Handysize weakened again in East Coast South America and Europe, while the US Gulf improved modestly, and the Pacific stayed constructive.

South America lost momentum as ballast pressure continued to build. Too many prompt ships rolled into the same early June window, keeping owners flexible and limiting upside.

The US Gulf was firmer than the headline market suggested. A steadier June cargo program and a cleaner vessel list helped improve trans-Atlantic business.

The Black Sea remained soft due to oversupply and shallow grain demand.

The Continent and Baltic also stayed under pressure, with too many prompt ships chasing limited enquiry.

The Pacific remains the strongest area in the segment, supported by tighter prompt availability and firmer Australia-linked business.

Overall, buyers can now be more patient in East Coast South America than they were a week ago, while US Gulf positions deserve more caution heading into June.

Supramax

Supramax stayed firm overall, but the split between strong and weak routes widened further.

East Coast South America remained one of the strongest areas, especially on long-haul and fronthaul business. Larger units continued benefiting from Panamax-style stems, which helped keep the basin elevated.

The US Gulf also stayed firm, particularly on Atlantic-facing business into the Mediterranean and Continent. Tight first-half June positioning continued to support owners.

West Coast South America is also tightening, while the Pacific remained broadly stable to firm.

The Black Sea improved slightly but remained secondary, and the Continent continued lagging the stronger Atlantic basins despite a small midweek improvement in scrap demand.

Overall, Supramax still has a firm base, but strength is now concentrated in vessel-scarce grain and long-haul routes rather than across the full basin.

Panamax

Panamax remained the strongest and most consistent freight segment.

Both basins stayed firm, with the Atlantic supported by North Coast South America grain flows and tightening prompt supply, while the Pacific continued benefiting from mineral demand and Australian business.

South America remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, with firmer fronthaul demand and tighter vessel balance continuing to support owners.

The US Gulf improved alongside the broader Atlantic market, though South America still maintained the stronger premium.

Europe also stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand supporting the market while prompt vessel availability tightened.

Paper and physical continue to move in the same direction, reinforcing the strength of the segment.

Overall, Panamax remains the segment where buyers have the least room to wait.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin Panamax and selected Supramax routes remain firm due to grain demand and tighter prompt supply. Handysize has softened in South America amid rising ballast pressure.

Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm regions across all major sizes, supported by minerals, Australia, and tighter vessel positioning.

Mediterranean / Black Sea The region remains oversupplied overall. Some western Mediterranean routes improved slightly, but cargo depth is still insufficient to drive a broader recovery.

Market Drivers

Fuel and energy Freight is no longer reacting directly to every crude move. Routing risk, replacement cost, and vessel positioning remain more important than flat bunker price alone.

Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained, and Gulf-linked businesses continue to carry a premium. Owners are still differentiating sharply between standard Indian Ocean trades and Gulf exposure.

Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue supporting Atlantic-to-Pacific positioning by tightening effective vessel supply.

China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while potential US-China agricultural flows could further strengthen Atlantic grain demand.

Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity again, but the core imbalance remains unchanged. Too many prompt ships are still limiting recovery in the Continent and the eastern Mediterranean.

Outlook

Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America and Europe, but move earlier on prompt Pacific business and selected US Gulf June cargoes.

Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America, West Coast South America and selected US Gulf Atlantic routes. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more flexibility.

Panamax buyers should continue prioritising earlier cover. Both physical and paper markets remain aligned, and vessel availability continues tightening in the strongest grain and mineral corridors.

Across all segments, the market remains firm, but increasingly selective. The key challenge is no longer identifying whether freight is strong or weak overall, but identifying which routes are tightening fastest.