Weekly Recaps

Grains started the week under pressure as a Trump headline triggered a sharp drop in oil and lifted broader financial markets. Wheat and corn followed lower but managed to recover from intraday lows as uncertainty around the announcement grew. Market direction remained tied to whether the situation signals a real de-escalation or only a temporary pause.

The dry bulk market softened this week across all segments. Geared vessels remained under pressure, while Panamax lost the momentum seen earlier in March and moved back into line with the broader market. The key shift came from bunkers, which eased materially. This removed one of the few recent supports for freight, particularly in weaker basins where owners had relied on fuel costs to defend levels. At the same time, Atlantic grain regions remain oversupplied with prompt tonnage, keeping pressure on rates.

Grains started the week under pressure, led by soybeans, which moved sharply lower alongside easing oil prices. Wheat and corn followed the weaker tone, while broader financial markets pointed to improving risk appetite, with equities higher and volatility declining. FX markets remained active ahead of central bank decisions, as the euro recovered and the Russian ruble weakened further.

The dry bulk market showed a more fragmented picture this week. Larger sizes regained some strength on Atlantic-driven demand, while the geared segments continued to soften and Panamax moved into a more constructive but still uneven phase. A key theme now cutting across all segments is macro-driven volatility. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East is pushing energy costs higher, influencing bunker pricing, routing decisions, and overall risk appetite. At the same time, commodity flows are beginning to shift at the margins, adding another layer of complexity to positioning.

Grain markets began the week in an extremely volatile environment as energy markets experienced one of the most dramatic sessions in recent history. WTI crude traded in a roughly $38 range during the day, at one point surging by around 31% before reversing to losses of about 11%. The sharp swings in oil spilled directly into grains, reinforcing the strong correlation between energy markets and agricultural commodities.

Dry bulk sentiment stayed uneven this week. The larger sizes showed some recovery midweek, but the geared segments and Panamax were more mixed, with momentum heavily dependent on basin balance and prompt positioning. In the background, operational risk and cost volatility remain front of mind. Bunker prices have been swinging sharply and the security picture around key transit corridors continues to inject uncertainty into voyage economics and scheduling.

Grain markets started the week with strength, briefly pushing wheat and soybeans to new multi-month highs before quickly reversing. Chicago wheat failed to hold above the key $6 level and sold off sharply as the dollar strengthened and U.S. equities recovered. The rapid turnaround highlighted the unstable environment, with volatility remaining the dominant feature as the Middle East conflict continues to shape broader market sentiment.

Dry bulk sentiment stayed mixed this week. The larger sizes cooled slightly after a strong run, but the geared segments held a firmer tone and Panamax continued to show a clear Atlantic versus Pacific split. Activity levels were decent, yet the market is still being steered by regional positioning, prompt list tightness, and a heavier ris

Headline indices are sending mixed signals. The composite dry index has softened slightly compared with last week as Capesize corrects, but the picture in our space is clearly firmer: Panamax, Supramax and Handysize averages have all moved higher through late February, with the sharpest daily gains on the geared indices in the last couple of sessions.

With the US on holiday, MATIF wheat traded in narrow ranges on thin volume, while CBOT reopened lower as Friday’s negative tone carried over. Weekly US data releases are delayed by one day. According to IKAR, Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for March shipment rose slightly week on week

The dry bulk market opened the week with a generally subdued tone, influenced by ongoing Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and mixed regional sentiment. While the Atlantic basins showed pockets of resilience across segments, Asian activity remained muted with limited fresh enquiry and ample tonnage supply. Panamax displayed a clear Atlantic–Pacific divergence, and period interest provided selective support in both Panamax and Supramax. Broader market commentary points to firm grain exports and constructive expectations for Q1, particularly in Panamax and Capesize.

The week started with prices mostly in the red, as the recent soybean rally appeared to lose momentum in a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact reaction. USDA confirmed private sales of 264k tons of US soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery, yet prices still moved lower. Weekly US export inspections showed solid corn and wheat movement, while soybeans lagged on a year-on-year basis. Russian 12.5% wheat FOB values held steady at $231 for March shipment, acting as a headwind for MATIF amid a stronger euro.

Prices started the week lower across the board, led by US wheat. Weather-risk fears that pushed prices higher late last week eased, as winterkill damage is historically difficult to evaluate and often fades quickly from focus. CBOT weakness came despite further USD softening, suggesting the prior rally had been stretched.

The market carried a more constructive tone this week, but it was still shaped by winter operating conditions and selective demand rather than broad-based strength. Weather disruption in the North Atlantic created short-lived tightness and pockets of spot demand, while the Pacific remained more subdued and generally unchanged. Overall, activity was steady, but charterers were more measured, and owners with prompt positions were less willing to chase cargo aggressively.

With the U.S. on holiday, Paris futures traded on their own and were fairly muted despite a stronger EUR/USD and limited EU participation in recent North African tenders. The MATIF wheat H/K carry continued to shrink as U.S. markets reopened largely unchanged. Trump said he may slap a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, while also reiterating his intent to take control of Greenland.

Dry bulk freight markets strengthened across all major segments this week, driven by firmer demand, tightening tonnage lists, and improving sentiment. Rates trended higher in both basins, with momentum most visible in mid-sized vessels and growing spillover support from the Atlantic into the Pacific.

A major miss on U.S. corn production sent prices down more than 5% on heavy volume as funds sold aggressively following a sharply heavier U.S. corn S&D. With yields raised to a record 186.5 bu/a and feed demand penciled sharply higher for 25/26, the market is now left needing either stronger demand or acreage reduction to prevent the largest ending stocks in decades. Wheat and soybeans held up better, though neither offered bullish surprises.

Mid January finds the dry bulk complex in a split state. Capes are correcting hard after a strong run, which is weighing on headline indices. In the geared and Panamax space that matters for grains, the picture is more nuanced: Panamax is edging firmer, while Supramax and Handysize are drifting lower, particularly in the Atlantic. Allied’s latest weekly summary has Panamax earnings modestly higher week on week, with Supramax and Handysize down by roughly high single to low double digit percentages, which matches daily Baltic prints into 14–15 January.

Grain and oilseed markets opened the week on a firmer footing, led by CBOT corn and soybeans, while MATIF milling wheat lagged and closed slightly lower. Strength in oil prices and renewed talk of Chinese buying supported sentiment, though wheat prices diverged across the Atlantic as Paris futures worked to preserve export competitiveness.

The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.

CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.

The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates.

USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t.