Weekly Freight Recap: 26/02/2026

Overview

Headline indices are sending mixed signals. The composite dry index has softened slightly compared with last week as Capesize corrects, but the picture in our space is clearly firmer: Panamax, Supramax and Handysize averages have all moved higher through late February, with the sharpest daily gains on the geared indices in the last couple of sessions.

Against that backdrop, the Atlantic is splitting by size and basin. ECSA and US Gulf geared tonnage is tightening, particularly on Handysize and select Supramax routes, while Atlantic Panamax is under pressure where North Coast South America and US Gulf grain enquiry is still thin. In contrast, the Pacific is doing more of the heavy lifting for Panamax and is now providing a solid floor for Supramax and, increasingly, for Handysize after the Lunar New Year lull.

For agri flows, this is a constructive but very positional market: strong South Atlantic grains are pulling freight up from a tight base, while Europe, the Black Sea and parts of the US Gulf remain much more price sensitive.

Handysize

Handysize has quietly become one of the relative winners over the past week. The Baltic Handy index and the associated time charter average have pushed higher again, with the biggest daily improvements on the Americas and intra Far East routes.

• ECSA and South Atlantic:  Carnival, Chinese New Year and the start of Ramadan slowed visible fixing early in the week, but there was no real easing in the underlying balance. Tonnage lists stayed tight and owners kept edging ideas up. Once a few benchmark deals printed, levels for Recalada to West Coast South America and transatlantic employment for larger Handies reset materially higher, with talk now in the mid to high twenties in dollar terms rather than low twenties.

• US Gulf:  The US Gulf Handy market spiked as end February and early March positions collided with squeezed cargoes, especially on transatlantic runs. Later in the week, momentum cooled as more ships appeared and urgent stems were covered, but the market is consolidating at elevated levels rather than snapping back. Regional tightness is still evident for prompt grains and feed ingredients into the Americas and into the Continent.

• Continent, Med and Black Sea:  Europe and the Black Sea are ticking along at firmer levels than a month ago but without the urgency seen in the Americas. Owners are defending the gains achieved, yet fresh upward momentum looks fragile. A lack of clear new grain catalysts and the risk of softer sentiment spilling back from a weaker US Gulf Ultratmax sector are keeping forward fixing in check.

• Pacific:  Intra Far East Handy business is rebuilding after the holidays. Indonesian runs and Australian rounds are paying a bit better for good spec ships, and there is more interest in backhauling into the Atlantic later in March, but smaller and non-Australian candidates are still having to work harder to get the numbers they want. Overall, the basin feels balanced rather than tight.

Supramax and Ultramax

Supramax has flipped from laggard to leader over the last few days. The Baltic Supramax index and the composite time charter basket have jumped noticeably, with particular strength on US Gulf to Atlantic, US Gulf to Far East and South China to India routes.

• ECSA:  South Atlantic tonnage for March is adequate on paper, but prompt availability is limited and that is enough to keep rates supported for Brazil and Argentina loadings. North Brazil is steadier and less aggressive than last week yet is still pricing above most Continent and Med employment for similar duration. For grains, Supras are competitive but increasingly having to jostle with Panamaxes that are looking for ECSA cover as the Pacific strengthens.

• US Gulf:  This is where the change in tone is most striking. After a very firm spell, Ultramax rates for both transatlantic and fronthaul corrected sharply as a wave of ships arrived against March laycans and cargo volumes did not keep pace. Owners have shown signs of panic on the way down, with several reported failures on subjects. Bunker costs and still decent absolute returns are offering some resistance, but sentiment is clearly more cautious now than two weeks ago.

• Continent, Med and Black Sea:  The Continent Ultramax market is fairly flat. Tonnage has built up modestly and demand is limited to a steady diet of scrap, fertiliser and a few grains and coal stems. The Med and Black Sea started the week in standoff mode, then gradually rebalanced as offers drifted back towards last done levels. The correction in US Gulf sentiment has removed some of the earlier optimism about quick repositioning from the Americas.

• Indian Ocean and Far East:  Asia is on a firmer footing than it looks from the holiday-slow fixture count. South China and Indonesia to India trips have moved significantly higher on the Baltic basket, and Indian Ocean rounds via South Africa are paying healthy premiums as the Atlantic pulls tonnage. Short period interest in the high teens for good Ultras in the Far East reflects owner confidence that current levels can be broadly maintained into Q2.

Panamax and Kamsarmax

Panamax remains a two-speed market.

• Atlantic:  The Atlantic side is under pressure. The transatlantic benchmark has slipped as more ships crowd into the Skaw–Gibraltar range and into the US Gulf, while grain support from North Coast South America and the Gulf is still underwhelming. ECSA forward business is trading at a premium to near dated positions, which is consistent with the expected ramp up in the soybean and corn programme, but it is not yet tight enough to pull the whole basin higher.

• Pacific:  The Pacific is doing the opposite. Tight prompt tonnage and steady coal and grain enquiry from Indonesia, Australia and the North Pacific are pushing transpacific returns up at a faster pace than the Atlantic can match. Fronthaul from Asia into the Atlantic is also benefiting, with backhaul values improving as period interest builds. The forward curve on Panamax paper sits above current spot into the coming quarters, which underlines a constructive underlying view even if seasonal moderation is expected later in the spring.

For agri flows, that means ECSA and Pacific load programmes are increasingly the drivers of Panamax earnings, while US Gulf and North Atlantic grains are still playing catch up.

Regional Pulse for Agri Flows

ECSA  South America is now centre stage for grains. Brazilian soybeans are moving into their main export window and Argentine corn prospects remain favourable, pointing to a solid multi month run of long-haul cargoes into Europe, North Africa and Asia. That is already visible in firmer sentiment on Panamax ECSA fronthaul and in the aggressive Handy and Supramax ideas from Recalada and North Brazil, where owners know they can triangulate into a strong US Gulf or West Coast South America position afterwards.

• US Gulf  The US Gulf is still in a transition phase. Handysize is tight and well supported on transatlantic and coastal business, which suits smaller grain and feed stems into the Americas and Europe. Supramax and Ultramax, by contrast, have rolled over as the March tonnage build swamped available fronthaul grains and petcoke. Panamax lacks a clear catalyst until NCSA and US Gulf grains scale up, leaving charterers firmly in control on timing and structure.

• Europe, Baltic and Black Sea  In the Continent and Baltic, grain activity into North Africa and the Mediterranean is steady but not spectacular, and freight remains highly positional. SovEcon has trimmed its current season Russian wheat export forecast slightly, reflecting reduced price competitiveness against EU origin, which implies a marginally larger role for EU wheat into key tenders. Algeria’s latest milling wheat tender is believed to include significant optional Black Sea and EU volumes, but Argentine supply looks too tight to feature materially, reinforcing the regional nature of that trade for now.

• Pacific and Indian Ocean  Far East demand for grains remains underpinned by Chinese import needs, while Indian Ocean trades link ECSA and Black Sea cargos with South Asia and the Gulf. For now the more interesting story is the freight arbitrage: Pacific Panamax strength versus a still softer Atlantic and Supramax/Handysize strength in the Americas versus flatter conditions in Europe.

Costs, Policy and Fleet Signals

Bunker prices in Singapore are drifting slightly lower from recent peaks but remain high in absolute terms, limiting the room for owners to discount long haul freight without eroding returns.

Asset markets remain firm. Allied value benchmarks show five year old Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Handy units all priced well above their five year averages, with recent secondhand deals for modern Japanese geared tonnage clearing at healthy premia.

Period rates for our focus sizes have moved up in parallel with spot, especially for Supramax and Handysize, which is consistent with the firmer Americas outlook and the tightening feel into Q2.

On the policy side, Russian wheat’s loss of some price edge to EU origin and continued heavy tendering by North African buyers keep trade flows dynamic between Black Sea, EU and South America. The broader geopolitical backdrop remains noisy, but nothing in the last week has fundamentally altered the grain freight landscape.

Outlook

Into March, the freight story for grains looks broadly supportive but uneven by region and size:

• Handysize should stay well bid out of ECSA and the US Gulf while Continent and Med drift sideways, leaving plenty of opportunity to lock in favourable Atlantic triangulations.

• Supramax and Ultramax are likely to see further volatility. Strong Americas period interest and rising paper levels argue for underlying support, but the recent US Gulf correction is a reminder that owners can overplay their hand when cargo is still thin.

• Panamax and Kamsarmax are set to remain split, with Pacific strength and the ECSA programme gradually dragging the Atlantic higher unless a new wave of tonnage washes into South America ahead of the crops.

For grain merchants and regional originators, this argues for continuing to buy freight opportunistically: lean into Continent and Med softness where stems are flexible, but do not expect cheap cover out of ECSA or on US Gulf Handies in the near term. For asset light operators, the clearest near-term upside still lies in disciplined exposure to Panamax on ECSA and Pacific grains, paired with selective geared cover in the Americas where the size premium remains in their favour.