Agri- Commodities: 06-10/04/26

Monday

US wheat futures fell on Monday, led by Kansas wheat, as improved US weather forecasts pressured prices, while soybeans and corn closed slightly higher. MATIF remained closed and may have some catching up to do today. Overall, the week promises to be eventful on both the geopolitical side, with Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ending today, and the fundamental side, with the USDA WASDE report due on Thursday.

The White House said a proposed 45-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is only one of several ideas under discussion and that President Trump has not approved it, calling it a “significant step” but “not good enough”, with military operations still ongoing. Iran also rejected the proposal. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday evening to open the Strait of Hormuz, while US winter wheat conditions came in at just 35% G/E, well below expectations, and Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for May delivery was reported at $239/t.

Tuesday

Wheat prices were little changed on both sides of the Atlantic on Tuesday despite very poor initial US winter wheat ratings, as rains expected later this week are seen improving conditions. Soybeans, and especially corn, came under greater pressure, with corn closing at its lowest level in four weeks. Still, the most important developments came after the close, and their impact is visible this morning.

Trump agreed to a two-week pause in attacks if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, easing a major war risk and triggering a sharp drop in oil prices. US wheat futures, which had been closely tracking oil, lost that support and moved lower, while EU soft wheat exports reached 18.0 mmt with line-ups already suggesting volumes above 21 mmt.

Wednesday

Plunging oil prices sent wheat prices lower on Wednesday as well, with corn following while soybeans managed slight gains. The market focus remained on geopolitics, as uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire persisted, alongside expectations for a largely uneventful USDA WASDE report focused on old-crop adjustments.

The ceasefire quickly came into question, with Iran accusing the U.S. of violating its terms on the same day it was announced, while Washington denied key claims. In physical markets, Jordan bought feed barley, and positioning data showed non-commercial participants reducing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed.

Thursday

The April USDA WASDE report brought limited changes overall but included a notable revision that increased global wheat ending stocks, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Wheat prices reversed earlier gains and closed lower, while corn declined for a third consecutive session, returning to pre-Iran war levels.

The Rosario Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s corn production estimate to a record 67 mmt, highlighting improving crop prospects, while U.S. drought conditions worsened, with 68% of winter wheat areas affected. Oil markets remained volatile, with ongoing uncertainty around ceasefire terms and continued tensions involving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Friday

Grains ended the week mixed, with wheat and corn lower while soybeans gained support from stronger meal prices. Markets heading into the weekend were not pricing in a negative outcome from U.S.-Iran talks, but this shifted after negotiations failed

.U.S. Vice President JD Vance left talks without a deal, and Trump announced plans for a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, including stopping vessels paying tolls to Iran and clearing mines. USDA confirmed export sales of soybean meal to Italy and corn to unknown destinations, while CFTC data showed broad fund selling across grains, ending a ten-week streak of net buying.